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India's September trade deficit narrowed to $2.7bn (Commerce ministry's initial estimates $2.9bn) from August print of $6.7bn. With this,

Some segments like e-commerce and consumption were bucking the trend till last week and showing increased sales (due to upstocking of products and restricted movements leading to preference for doorstep delivery). However, with the continued ambiguity (different circulars) and miscommunication between various state governments, the segment was also impacted (due to...

Trade deficit narrowed to USD 11.3 billion versus USD 12 billion in October.

Trade deficit expanded to USD 12.1 billion versus USD 10.9 billion in October. Trade deficit for April- November 2019 stands at USD 106 billion versus USD 134 billion for the same period last year.

India's exports showed a remarkable improvement in May'18 led by higher exports of oil, pharma and engineering goods. Imports too increased but at a relatively lower pace as gold and precious stone imports fell. Non-oil-non-gold imports showed an improvement and are likely to remain buoyant this year as consumption demand improves further. Oil imports will also be higher. As a result, trade deficit is likely to expand further. This implies downward pressure on INR unless FPI inflows resume....

Trade deficit widened sharply in Jan'18 to US$16.3bn, near a 5-year high, on account of a sharper increase in commodity oriented imports. Overall trade activity, both at Services and Merchandise levels, has improved sharply. However, overall merchandise exports in FY18 have been somewhat impacted by GST related constraints. At 9.1% yoy, exports growth in Jan'18 was highly skewed, with over 96% of the growth contributed by Engineering Goods and Petroleum Products. Capital Goods imports witnessed a sharp growth of 22.9% yoy, but more data confirmation would be required to indicate any...

Gold imports are back with vengeance and will accelerate further in the coming months due to the demonetization squeeze. This doesn?t augur well for the economy and will cause deterioration in India?s hard earned BoP stability. With crude prices having stabilised, the adverse base will drive up import growth. In light of the above, the export growth at 23 month high looks a bit hollow as the same is mainly due to favourable base.

The key highlight of the trade data print for Aug-16 was the fall in gold imports by a whopping ~61%/77% on YTD/YoY basis. This indicates that structural changes underpin the fall in the demand for gold, mainly on account of stringent disclosure norms for gold purchases coupled with positive real returns on financial assets.

Exports are back into contraction territory despite the presence of a favourable base. The underlying growth impulses are weak. Major export heads such as petro products (crude dependent), textiles and engineering goods continue to decline on YTD basis. On the imports side, policy interventions, such as the minimum import price on steel products, are having an impact ? iron & steel imports have contracted 26.5% on YTD basis coupled with the fall in gold imports.

After 18 months, the presence of a favourable base has finally pushed lean exports into growth territory. However, the underlying growth impulses are weak. Major export heads such as petro products (crude dependent), textiles and engineering goods continue to decline on YTD basis.