FMCG
FMCG
SECTOR | 08 Jul 2020
IDBI Capital
As most of the economies are opening up and gaining momentum, demand for crude oil has also picked up amid tight supply as OPEC and Non-OPEC both cut its production level. Consequently, crude oil price (Brent) increased 29% MoM to average US$39.9/bbl. We expect oil price to remain in the broader range of US$35-45/bbl over the next quarter as demand would continue to be on a rising trend but higher price would bring back lost supply from US shale assets, which would keep price under check. However, on a medium to long-run we expect crude oil price to stabilise near US$50-55/bbl. OPEC cut its production level further to reach to the lowest level since May 1991 to 22.6mbpd vs 24.6mbpd in May'20 (30.4mbpd in Apr'20). Saudi Arabia was in a lead role with a production cut of 1.13mbpd MoM to 7.5mbpd in Jun'20 (11.6mbpd in Apr'20) while other countries saw a minor cut in production. This is in line with their commitment to bring down supply by 9.5mbpd which has further extended to Jul'20. We expect, if demand scenario doesn't improve much, production cut would be extended till year-end....
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