Transportation
Transportation
SECTOR | 20 Apr 2020
HDFC Securities
Further, the increase in axle loading norms has raised effective system capacity by over 15%. Also, we expect railways to gain market share over FY21-22E, post the DFC which will impact demand for MHCV's. We prefer stocks which are market leaders in their respective segments and have a cash rich balance sheet. Due to the COVID impact, we expect volumes in FY21E to decline in double digits across automobile segments. Over FY20-21, this will imply a fall of 30-40% in volumes. We expect a recovery in volumes from 2HFY21 onwards, as the situation gradually normalizes. In the logistics segment, while volumes for container rail operators will be impacted due to the downturn, the phased commissioning of the Dedicated Freight Corridor will partially offset the impact of the above. We believe that the CV recovery will be further pushed out as fleet utilization levels are expected to remain low over FY21E.
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