Motilal Oswal
HDFC reported another quarter of consistent performance with healthy AUM growth of ~14% YoY, stable spreads of ~2.3% and largely flat GS3% of 1.6%. While NII grew 11% YoY, lower assignment income (INR1.7b v/s INR2.6b YoY), higher opex (+14% YoY) and provisions led to flat core PBT. We expect core RoAA of 1.9% and RoE Note that retail lending growth has remained healthy at 16- 18% with stable individual spreads of ~1.9% since the IL&FS; crisis. Over the past four quarters, HDFC has maintained steady retail loan growth of 16-17% YoY while curtailing wholesale disbursements the share of wholesale loans in overall AUM is down 200bp to 24%. We expect the company to largely maintain spreads as the cuts in home loan rates are offset by declining cost of funds and opportunistic non-individual loan growth. HDFC will continue to effectively We keep our earnings estimates largely unchanged and expect the company to report core PBT CAGR of ~10% over FY20-23.
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