Titan looks like the big winner right now, but DEFENCE' will be the operating word as SUPERPACK closes in. Business gains are priced in. Initiate coverage with NEUTRAL. Thangamayil is evolving in tandem with regulatory tailwinds. It is poised to drive up return ratios significantly over the next few years, flowering in its core markets. Initiate coverage with BUY. Whats VISIBLE to investors? Durable growth, anchored to wedding demand A huge trust deficit in unorganised retail POS Pro-organised regulatory push, incl. demonet + GST Tightening credit lines for jewellers Whats LESS visible? We visited players across the Indian jewellery value chain in six cities to validate the visible and to discover some of the not so visible moving parts. Our findings: Indias jewellery story is mostly about the SUPERPACK (17 organized jewellery chains that will grab ~42% share in the next five years). The SUPERPACK has significant diversity in current operations as well as growth strategies. Battle for market share will be played in North and West India, away from the largest market (South). Only one SUPERPACK player is choosing to opt out. Our India visit suggests jewellery may have some legs (~6% CAGR built over FY18-23E). However, as a category, jewellery could so easily have an alternative history - may not grow apace with demographic (and income) tailwinds, despite the anchor wedding segment, and may even slip down the discretionary spending ladder. For us, this is the biggest invisible that investors must recognise. Street folly: RoCEs are overstated in proforma accounts. We prefer to see...