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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    24 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief: RBL Bank IPO subscribed over 70 times, Infosys revenues from GSTN

    Morning Brief: RBL Bank IPO subscribed over 70 times, Infosys revenues from GSTN

    • The RBL Bank IPO was subscribed over 70 times, and the company will get around Rs 830 crore from its IPO.  Investors were attracted to RBL Bank’s track record - the company has based on disclosures managed to grow without compromising asset quality and without high debt. The bank targets the SME lending and retail space. BS
    • The Modi government is hiring non-governmental positions through its MyGov portal, looking for experts in a variety of fields from software developers to writers and management professionals. The government is hoping to recruit 'citizen experts' in various domains for contractual services as needed. ET
    • Some much-needed good news for Infosys with the government's GSTN project, with the company expecting $60 million in incremental revenues in the next couple of quarters. This will improve the company's current growth by at least 1% in the next couple of quarters. LiveMint
    • The 'payment notices' on Vijay Mallya's table continues to pile up, with the Enforcement Directorate now bringing fresh charges against the former tycoon regarding the loan default of Rs 6,027 crore from nationalized banks. The ED is trying to invoke the India-UK Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty to force Mallya's return to India to stand trial. Firstpost
    • Photo of the Day: Students in Mumbai participate in celebrations ahead of the Janmashtami festival. Reuters/Siddiqui 

       

       
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    The Baseline
    23 Aug 2016

    IPOs are the canary in a coal mine - predictors of stock market downturn

    "Show me a skyscraper and I'll show you a recession" - to paraphrase the property analyst Andrew Lawrence, who came up with a ‘skyscraper index’ showing that the tallest buildings come up right before recessions. The idea is quite intuitive -- easy money fuels lofty ambitions in the construction industry and by the time the tallest skyscrapers complete, the bubble bursts and the recession is already underway. With nearly 90 skyscrapers being built or near completion in China, the curse of the skyscraper might be imminent for the country.

    Skyscrapers take years to complete, and so using them to predict the exact beginning of a stock market downturn becomes difficult. IPO ‘skyscrapers’ however, are a better and tighter predictor of an oncoming downturn.

    The chart above shows the Number of IPOs in the preceding year versus the NIFTY50 average values for that month. The skyscrapers - the columns - are the number of IPOs in the preceding 12 months. We analysed data over the last decade, from January 2007 onwards and found that since that year, NIFTY50 has fallen by more than 25% twice in that time period, and both times the number of IPOs were at their peak. And the higher the number of IPOs, the higher the fall.

    The first time a large fall occurred was in Jan 2008, with the Nifty crashing over 60% as the number of IPOs reached an all time high. The second time was at the end of 2010 when Nifty50 went through a downturn of nearly 25%.

    IPOs in India are a means to raise capital for the company, as well as a means for current shareholders to offload their shares at a more or less fixed price. For a company owner, the right time to go for selling or raising capital is not only when growth is peaking or when the valuations are high, but also when the company owners feel that the positive gap between the actual value of the company and what the street is willing to pay is maximum.

    So as this positive gap increases, more companies feel confident about getting their money's worth with an IPO. The greater the gap (with availability of the same ‘easy money’ that fuels skyscrapers), the higher the number of companies going for IPOs and sooner than later, higher the downturn.

    A similar graph of Nifty50 versus the amount of money raised in the preceding year gets skewed by a few big IPOs. So the data gets skewed due to the Reliance Power and DLF IPOs.

    Any guesses when the biggest IPOs of all times hit the market in India? It was in January 2008 - Jan 15-18 to be precise. Since our chart is calculated by the listing date, there is a lag in our skyscrapers. Reliance Power listed on Feb 11, 2008. The downturn was already underway by then.

    One of the reasons cited by many experts is that big IPOs tend to temporarily suck out the liquidity of markets. Reliance Power IPO was oversubscribed 73 times and cornered a commitment of nearly Rs 7,50,000 crores.

    The market regulator responded to this issue by making ASBA(Application Supported by Blocked Amount) - essentially a temporary lein, mandatory around October 2008, followed by changing the guidelines on how shares are allocated to avoid oversubscription in 2012.

    The number of days between the close of bidding and listing had also been reduced to first 12 days in 2010 and now to 6 days from 22 days pre Apr 2010. These steps mitigate the liquidity suction problem.

    India is not alone in this trend shown by the above graphs. US markets seem to largely follow the same trend. Since we don’t have detailed monthly data, the graph is not granular enough, nor do we have the same trailing 12 month aggregates, and consequently there is lag effect - the indicators still seem to work well in 2000 and 2007.

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    The Baseline
    23 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief: YES Bank and other midcaps hit lifetime highs, Future Group may buy Aditya Birla Retail

    Morning Brief: YES Bank and other midcaps hit lifetime highs, Future Group may buy Aditya Birla Retail

    • Shares of mid-cap and small-cap companies are on a roll, with the S&P Midcap index and the Nifty Mid100 at record highs on Monday. YES Bank, Tata Chemicals, Piramal Enterprises, Kansai Nerolac, Divis Laboratories, are some stocks from these two segments that are trading at a lifetime high. However, analysts caution that these may be heading to a bubble. BS
    • Payments platform and e-commerce player Paytm has declared a net loss of Rs 1,534 crore in the financial year ended March 2016, a rise of 312% over the previous year. FE
    • Reliance Jio has now threatened legal recourse against the telecom players lobbying for action against the company. The advent of Jio into the market has made competitors testy, with telcos making allegations of predatory pricing and "unfair competition". Telcos are also alleging favoritism of Jio by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai). LiveMint
    • Kishore Biyani's Future Group is in discussions with Aditya Birla Retail to buy or merge the two firms. This could consolidate the sector further and mark Future's fourth acquisition in this space, after Nilgiri's, Bharti Retail and Big Apple. ET
    • Photo of the Day: A boy helps to air dry corn in Nonyang village, China Guardian/Barcroft
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    The Baseline
    22 Aug 2016, 11:10AM
    Morning Brief: Former Flipkart CEO Sachin Bansal admits to weak performance, Infosys layoffs

    Morning Brief: Former Flipkart CEO Sachin Bansal admits to weak performance, Infosys layoffs

    • New RBI chief Urjit Patel has an old problem to grapple with - how to get state banks to reduce borrowing costs for customers. While RBI cut lending rates for banks, these banks have matched the cuts by around half, not transmitting the benefits of cuts to customers. Firstpost
    • Sachin Bansal made an unusual admission for senior management, saying that his weak performance had led to him being replaced as CEO of the company. Flipkart has been reeling under competition from Amazon, reduced valuations and layoffs. ET
    • Cement companies in India have benefited recently from lower power and fuel prices. Valuations have gone up and operating margins have improved. LiveMint examines how much upside is there in the sector. 
    • Infosys' disappointing quarterly results are taking a toll on the company with more job cuts coming. The recent cancellation of the RBS contract that Infosys was banking on, is likely only the beginning of the Brexit fallout for Indian IT services firms. FE
    • Photo of the Day: Performers take part in the closing ceremonies of the Rio Olympics today. REUTERS/Edgard Garrido
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    The Baseline
    19 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief: Tata Elxsi and other midcap outperformers, SBI acquires five associate banks in share swap

    Morning Brief: Tata Elxsi and other midcap outperformers, SBI acquires five associate banks in share swap

    • Outperformers like PV Sindhu in stocks - pinpointing 15 strong midcap stocks that reported consistent revenue growth in the past four quarters ET
    • The State Bank of India board has approved the acquisition of five associate banks, and the merger will happen by March 2017. Analysts believe the share swap ratios proposed are fair, and that the stocks of merged banks will rise. BS
    • Reliance Jio has onboarded over 1.5 million test users for its 4G offering, and says that it will offer data and calls at 'substantially lower' rates than its competitors. Jio has already become the target of complaints from Airtel and others who contend that its test users - who are calling customers on other networks for free - are affecting interconnection costs that telcos have to pay. Jio has shot back, accusing competitors of attempting to sabotage its entry. LiveMint
    • Firstpost writes that the Modi government made an effort to dim Raghuram Rajan's star power as his term as RBI governor neared its closure. While the government agreed with Rajan's stance on inflation and accepted a 4% inflation target, they were apparently angered by statements Rajan had made about the government and India's growth. The new governor, they hope, will be far more low-key and not a media darling.  
    • Photo of the Day: Baby gorilla Afia is taken out for a walk from her zoo, around Gorilla Island in Bristol. Atlantic/Getty
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    The Baseline
    18 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief: Walmart eyeing India entry, and is it too late for Alibaba?

    Morning Brief: Walmart eyeing India entry, and is it too late for Alibaba?

    • Microfinance stocks such as Equitas and Ujjivanmay be ripe for the plucking, having gained up to 90% since company listing. While most analysts are optimistic about this sector, expecting credit growth, others have taken a contra view and initiated shorts on Equitas as well as on Ujjivan Financial Services with target prices of Rs 142 and Rs 372, respectively. ET
    • With Amazon cornering the Indian e-commerce market, it may be too late now for Alibaba, which is considering an Indian entry with the acquisition of ShopClues. Alibaba had initially considered Snapdeal before the Indian company hit a valuation wall and is struggling for growth. LiveMint
    • Uber will allow Indian users to smaller cities to book a cab without installing its app, via a web app. The new feature has been introduced in cities including Kochi and Nagpur, and takes its battle with Ola to the smaller towns. BS
    • Now that the Indian government has eased foreign investment in retailing, allowing 100% FDI in selling of processed food, Walmart is eyeing the market and may be serious about an entry. The entry of the giant would reshape the market while potentially bringing down food costs for customers. However, Walmart has been criticised elsewhere for low labour pay and long hours for workers. Firstpost
    • Photo of the day: A man arranges the display in his stall, which is loaded with rakhi offerings for Rakshabandhan today. Reuters
       

       

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    The Baseline
    17 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief: Ola shuts down TaxiForSure amid fund crunch, Modi promises to reform, perform, transform

    Morning Brief: Ola shuts down TaxiForSure amid fund crunch, Modi promises to reform, perform, transform

    • In an effort to reduce cash burn amid slowing funding, Ola has shut down TaxiForSure, which it acquired for over $200 million in March last year. Taxi For Sure had been forced to sell to its rival due to slower funding and problems with cab aggregator safety, which had discouraged its investors from providing more money to the startup. Ola is now facing similar challenges with Indian regulators and stiff competition from Uber. BS
    • Food prices continue to drive inflation up, with the Wholesale Price Index now at 3.55%, up from 1.62% the previous month. Fighting inflation has been a priority of the RBI, but the bank has limited tools against supply side problems, which is driving prices up in the present cycle. Recent droughts, weather shifts and weak agri growth have all driven up the prices of food. Firstpost
    • Amid the new slogan of 'reform, perform and transform' in his Independence Day speech, Modi has promised institutional reform that will result in less harrasment of taxpayers, better governance, and better access to services. He has also committed to stronger control of inflation, a concern amid rising prices. LiveMint
    • India has moved up 15 places in the Global Innovation rankings thanks to information and technology exports, reaching 66th place. FE
    • Photo of the Day: Badminton player PV Sindhu is now one win away from a medal at the Rio Olympics after defeating Wang Yihan of China. Reuters/FE
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    The Baseline
    12 Aug 2016
    Research Reports Summary, IOC is StockPick of the Week

    Research Reports Summary, IOC is StockPick of the Week

     

    It's a marathon research reports roundup this week! Sixty six company stocks saw BUY reports from analysts. Five company stocks saw a SELL report from analysts. Thirty nine stocks came in as HOLD/NEUTRAL.

    Pick of the week: Indian Oil Corporation Limited - IOCwhich has received three price upgrades and a target price between Rs. 602- Rs 620. 

     

    Date

    Stock

    Target

    Upside

    Type

    CMP

    Broker

    Upgrades/downgrades - last 6 months

    2016-08-01

    Astra Microwave Products Lim.. - ASTRAMICRO

    146

    21.46

    BUY

    117.3

    HDFC Securities

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-01

    Federal Bank Limited - FEDERALBNK

    78

    21.88

    BUY

    63.4

    Ashika Stock Broking

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    Hexaware Technologies Limited - HEXAWARE

    220

    -0.38

    NEUTRAL

    215.2

    HDFC Securities

    1 upgrade,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-01

    ICICI Bank Limited - ICICIBANK

    280

    13.82

    BUY

    246.7

    HDFC Securities

    2 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-01

    Indian Oil Corporation Limited - IOC

    620

    6.51

    BUY

    538.8

    Ashika Stock Broking

    3 upgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    Indoco Remedies Limited - INDOCO

    365

    15.91

    BUY

    314.9

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    KEC International Limited - KEC

    160

    12.99

    BUY

    141.6

    HDFC Securities

    3 upgrades, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    Larsen & Toubro Limited - LT

    1461

    -2.76

    NEUTRAL

    1502.5

    HDFC Securities

    4 upgrades, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    LIC Housing Finance Limited - LICHSGFIN

    608

    16.58

    BUY

    521.55

    Ashika Stock Broking

    6 upgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    Unichem Laboratories Limited - UNICHEMLAB

    360

    27.84

    BUY

    281.6

    Ashika Stock Broking

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-01

    Vedanta (Sesa Sterlite Limit.. - VEDL

    165

    -3.11

    HOLD

    170.3

    ICICI Securities Limited

    7 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-02

    Blue Dart Express Limited - BLUEDART

    6500

    14.23

    BUY

    5690.05

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Cholamandalam Investment and.. - CHOLAFIN

    1100

    -4.25

    NEUTRAL

    1148.8

    Phillip Capital

    4 upgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Eicher Motors Limited - EICHERMOT

    25000

    12.47

    BUY

    22227.25

    ICICI Securities Limited

    7 upgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    InterGlobe Aviation Limited - INDIGO

    1057

    28.25

    NEUTRAL

    824.15

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Shoppers Stop Limited - SHOPERSTOP

    411

    10.17

    HOLD

    373.05

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Sun Pharmaceuticals Industri.. - SUNPHARMA

    925

    10.26

    BUY

    838.95

    Motilal Oswal

    3 upgrades, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills Li.. - SURYALAXMI

    267

    79.19

    BUY

    149

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Tech Mahindra Limited - TECHM

    530

    5.59

    NEUTRAL

    501.95

    HDFC Securities

    4 upgrades, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-02

    Ujjivan Financial Services L.. - UJJIVAN

    510

    11.71

    NEUTRAL

    456.55

    HDFC Securities

    -

    2016-08-02

    VRL Logistics Ltd - VRLLOG

    316

    Target met

    SELL

    315.75

    Phillip Capital

    1 upgrade,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    Bharat Petroleum Corporation.. - BPCL

    -

    -

    BUY

    604

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    Coal India Limited - COALINDIA

    -

    -

    SELL

    330.6

    Motilal Oswal

    7 downgrades till date

    2016-08-03

    Cyient Limited - CYIENT

    589

    14.54

    BUY

    514.25

    Karvy

    4 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    EIH Limited - EIHOTEL

    100

    -10.19

    HOLD

    111.35

    ICICI Securities Limited

    -

    2016-08-03

    Hester Biosciences Limited - HESTERBIO

    708

    -4.43

    HOLD

    740.85

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    Indian Bank - INDIANB

    246

    21.51

    BUY

    202.45

    Phillip Capital

    3 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    Pidilite Industries Limited - PIDILITIND

    812

    10.78

    BUY

    733

    ICICI Securities Limited

    5 upgrades till date

    2016-08-03

    Tata Communications Limited - TATACOMM

    543

    20.4

    BUY

    451

    ICICI Securities Limited

    3 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-03

    V.S.T Tillers Tractors Limited - VSTTILLERS

    2250

    20.91

    BUY

    1860.95

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-03

    Vinati Organics Limited - VINATIORGA

    595

    8.51

    NEUTRAL

    548.35

    Motilal Oswal

    3 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-04

    Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limi.. - APLLTD

    -

    -

    NEUTRAL

    643

    Angel Broking

    3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    Cadila Healthcare Limited - CADILAHC

    405

    7.83

    BUY

    375.6

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades, 5 downgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    Carborundum Universal Limited - CARBORUNIV

    267

    2.93

    HOLD

    259.4

    Karvy

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-04

    Emami Limited - EMAMILTD

    1070

    -7.31

    NEUTRAL

    1154.35

    Phillip Capital

    2 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-04

    Orient Cement Limited - ORIENTCEM

    180

    8.73

    NEUTRAL

    165.55

    HDFC Securities

    2 upgrades,2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    PI Industries Limited - PIIND

    734

    -6.11

    HOLD

    781.75

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

    3 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    The Ramco Cements Limited - RAMCOCEM

    447

    21.26

    SELL

    567.7

    HDFC Securities

    4 upgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    Voltas Limited - VOLTAS

    325

    -8.05

    NEUTRAL

    353.45

    HDFC Securities

    8 upgrades, 3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-04

    Wonderla Holidays Limited - WONDERLA

    460

    14.3

    BUY

    402.45

    ICICI Securities Limited

    -

    2016-08-05

    Brigade Enterprises Limited - BRIGADE

    208

    31.73

    BUY

    157.9

    HDFC Securities

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Capital First Limited - CAPF

    749

    10.15

    BUY

    680

    HDFC Securities

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Century Plyboards (India) Li.. - CENTURYPLY

    263

    23.21

    BUY

    213.45

    Motilal Oswal

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-05

    Dishman Pharmaceuticals and .. - DISHMAN

    198

    18.6

    BUY

    166.95

    Karvy

    2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-05

    Entertainment Network (India.. - ENIL

    800

    11.11

    BUY

    720

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Hindustan Media Ventures Lim.. - HMVL

    330

    19.61

    BUY

    275.9

    Phillip Capital

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Kajaria Ceramics Limited - KAJARIACER

    1370

    10.43

    BUY

    1240.65

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-05

    Ortel Communications Limited - ORTEL

    300

    77.51

    BUY

    169

    Phillip Capital

    -

    2016-08-05

    Pennar Engineered Building S.. - PENPEBS

    225

    26.4

    BUY

    178

    Phillip Capital

    -

    2016-08-05

    Rural Electrification Corpor.. - RECLTD

    240

    9.51

    BUY

    219.15

    Dynamic Levels

    -

    2016-08-05

    SHAILY ENGINEERING PLASTICS .. - SHAILY

    640

    23.08

    BUY

    520

    Nirmal Bang

    -

    2016-08-05

    SML Isuzu Limited - SMLISUZU

    1497

    13.52

    HOLD

    1318.75

    Karvy

    2 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Sundaram Finance Limited - SUNDARMFIN

    1660

    11.97

    NEUTRAL

    1482.5

    Motilal Oswal

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Tata Steel Limited - TATASTEEL

    450

    18.53

    BUY

    379.65

    Phillip Capital

    5 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-05

    Titan Company Limited - TITAN

    425

    1.69

    HOLD

    417.95

    ICICI Securities Limited

    5 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-05

    Tube Investments of India Li.. - TUBEINVEST

    653

    16.53

    BUY

    560.35

    Karvy

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-06

    Cummins India Limited - CUMMINSIND

    940

    3.5

    BUY

    908.2

    HDFC Securities

    2 upgrades, 3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-06

    Greaves Cotton Limited - GREAVESCOT

    -

    -

    NEUTRAL

    138.5

    Angel Broking

    2 upgrades, 3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-06

    Siemens Limited - SIEMENS

    870

    33.35

    SELL

    1305.35

    Phillip Capital

    3 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    Arvind Limited - ARVIND

    370

    19.94

    BUY

    308.5

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    Bharat Electronics Limited - BEL

    1560

    26.83

    BUY

    1230

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade, 1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    Bharat Forge Limited - BHARATFORG

    906

    10.35

    BUY

    821

    HDFC Securities

    2 upgrades, 5 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    Bharti Infratel Limited - INFRATEL

    450

    21.77

    BUY

    369.55

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    Coromandel International Lim.. - COROMANDEL

    300

    14.94

    BUY

    261

    Motilal Oswal

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    Credit Analysis And Research.. - CARERATING

    1400

    23.03

    BUY

    1137.95

    ICICI Securities Limited

    -

    2016-08-08

    Gateway Distriparks Limited - GDL

    393

    46.53

    BUY

    268.2

    Motilal Oswal

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    GATI Limited - GATI

    200

    39.03

    BUY

    143.85

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Hea.. - GSKCONS

    6765

    5.87

    BUY

    6390

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades, 3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    HCL Technologies Limited - HCLTECH

    1000

    20.63

    BUY

    829

    Angel Broking

    1 upgrade, 7 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    HT Media Limited - HTMEDIA

    86

    10.26

    HOLD

    78

    ICICI Securities Limited

    -

    2016-08-08

    Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited - KANSAINER

    353

    -1.94

    HOLD

    360

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

    2 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    MindTree Limited - MINDTREE

    600

    3.34

    NEUTRAL

    580.6

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    Tata Motors Limited - TATAMOTORS

    576

    11.61

    BUY

    516.1

    Motilal Oswal

    10 upgrades, 4 downgrades till date

    2016-08-08

    Triveni Turbine Limited - TRITURBINE

    150

    21.46

    BUY

    123.5

    Motilal Oswal

    -

    2016-08-08

    TTK Prestige Limited - TTKPRESTIG

    4590

    -7.84

    HOLD

    4980.45

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades, 1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-08

    Union Bank of India - UNIONBANK

    194

    55.57

    NEUTRAL

    124.7

    HDFC Securities

    2 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    Amara Raja Batteries Limited - AMARAJABAT

    919

    0

    HOLD

    919

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd

    1 upgrade, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    Bata India Limited - BATAINDIA

    446

    16.91

    SELL

    536.75

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade, 3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    Colgate Palmolive (India) Li.. - COLPAL

    1110

    14.67

    BUY

    968

    Phillip Capital

    2 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    HEG Limited - HEG

    150

    -7.69

    HOLD

    162.5

    ICICI Securities Limited

    -

    2016-08-09

    Hero MotoCorp Limited - HEROMOTOCO

    3750

    11.71

    BUY

    3356.95

    Phillip Capital

    9 upgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    INOX Leisure Limited - INOXLEISUR

    290

    12.42

    BUY

    257.95

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade, 1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-09

    Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited - KKCL

    2025

    9.46

    HOLD

    1850

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-09

    Manappuram Finance Limited - MANAPPURAM

    114

    35.15

    BUY

    84.35

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-09

    Mangalam Cement Limited - MANGLMCEM

    365

    15.14

    BUY

    317

    ICICI Securities Limited

    4 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-09

    Marico Limited - MARICO

    300

    -0.12

    NEUTRAL

    300.35

     

    Phillip Capital

    6 upgrades,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-09

    Prism Cement Limited - PRISMCEM

    122

    16.41

    BUY

    104.8

    Motilal Oswal

    -

    2016-08-09

    Repco Home Finance Limited - REPCOHOME

    966

    16.96

    BUY

    825.9

    Motilal Oswal

    1 upgrade till date

    2016-08-09

    The Byke Hospitality Limited - BYKE

    306

    90.54

    BUY

    160.6

    BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

    1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-10

    Idea Cellular Limited - IDEA

    100

    5.71

    HOLD

    94.6

    ICICI Securities Limited

    3 downgrades till date

    2016-08-10

    Jagran Prakashan Limited - JAGRAN

    220

    19.57

    BUY

    184

    ICICI Securities Limited

    3 upgrades till date

    2016-08-10

    JK Cement Limited - JKCEMENT

    855

    11.47

    BUY

    767.05

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades, 1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-10

    Lupin Limited - LUPIN

    1650

    4.04

    NEUTRAL

    1586

    Phillip Capital

    3 upgrades, 5 downgrades till date

    2016-08-10

    Somany Ceramics Limited - SOMANYCERA

    582

    -2.35

    HOLD

    596

    ICICI Securities Limited

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-10

    SRF Limited - SRF

    1600

    0.81

    NEUTRAL

    1587.2

    Phillip Capital

    1 upgrade, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-10

    Tata Global Beverages Limited - TATAGLOBAL

    147

    5.98

    HOLD

    138.7

    ICICI Securities Limited

    1 upgrade, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-11

    Apar Industries Limited - APARINDS

    630

    15.53

    BUY

    545.3

    Dynamic Levels

    -

    2016-08-11

    Apollo Tyres Limited - APOLLOTYRE

    169

    -1.43

    NEUTRAL

    171.45

    Phillip Capital

    1 upgrade,1 downgrade till date

    2016-08-11

    Britannia Industries Limited - BRITANNIA

    3280

    -0.2

    NEUTRAL

    3286.6

    Phillip Capital

    3 upgrades, 2 downgrades till date

    2016-08-11

    Meghmani Organics Limited - MEGH

    50

    15.21

    BUY

    43.4

    Phillip Capital

    2 upgrades till date

    2016-08-11

    NIIT Technologies Limited - NIITTECH

    510

    23.01

    BUY

    414.6

    Phillip Capital

    1 upgrade, 3 downgrades till date

    Source: Trendlyne Research Reports Summaries

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    The Baseline
    12 Aug 2016
    Morning Brief - RBI Governor Rajan creates headlines while aiming for the opposite, Aditya Birla Group and Grasim merger worries shareholders

    Morning Brief - RBI Governor Rajan creates headlines while aiming for the opposite, Aditya Birla Group and Grasim merger worries shareholders

    • RBI Guv Raghuram Rajan mentions PM Modi while trying not to. In an interview Rajan said that "anything I say about Prime Minister Modi will be problematic." It's a no-win situation for Rajan in his efforts to avoid controversy, where his refusal to answer a question about Modi itself generates headlines. NDTV
    • The merging of group firms Aditya Birla and Grasim isn't exactly good news for shareholders, with the ABG's financial services arm to be carved out into a separate company, and potentially higher debt coming into the books for Grasim. Firstpost
    • Bank stocks are going to take some time to recover say analysts, with poor earnings and asset quality in PSU banks resulting in reputations taking a beating. Best to wait and watch for the next 12 months. ET
    • Telecom companies have taken their fight against Jio and interconnect charges all the way to the PMO, but Jio is planning to expand its testing phase with free call and data offerings to customers even further in the coming months. Jio says it will add employees from selected companies to its free testing plans. LiveMint
    • Photo of the Day: Saina Nehwal wins her badminton match at the Olympics against Brazilian player Vicente, facing both the Brazilian and a raucous home crowd strongly supporting her opponent. IE/Associated Press
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    The Baseline
    11 Aug 2016
    Upcoming Announcements - Consumer Price Index, Raghuram Rajan's source of worry, updates tomorrow

    Upcoming Announcements - Consumer Price Index, Raghuram Rajan's source of worry, updates tomorrow

    Tomorrow the government will release some overall economic data, at 5:30 pm. There are hopes that the Manufacturing Output and Industrial Production numbers will show a boost, encouraging investors that India's economy is on the healthy track, especially with ongoing worries on global growth. 

    Also included in this announcement will be the number that caused outgoing RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan so much heartburn in recent months: the Consumer Price Index number, which tracks inflation in prices for Indians. The graph above shows that the CPI has been rising over the target 4% rate in recent months. The last figure was 5.77% - it is now forecast to hit close to 6% in the announcement tomorrow. 

     

    ImportanceAnnouncementPreviousForecast
    MediumConsumer Price Index5.77%5.9%
    LowIndustrial Production (YoY)1.2%1.5%
    LowManufacturing Output (MoM)0.7% 

     

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