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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    13 Sep 2016
    Bangalore shuts down, industrial production casts shadow on good inflation numbers

    Bangalore shuts down, industrial production casts shadow on good inflation numbers

    • Bengaluru shuts down with the Cauvery dispute - with curfew imposed in sections of the city and Sec 144 in force, the city has been largely peaceful but most offices have stayed closed. Bus service has been halted across the city. ET
    • Sequoia Capital, one of India's most active VC investors, is looking to sell its stake in eight startups and 'rationalize its portfolio'. Most of these stakes are in non-tech firms. LiveMint
    • Optimism with falling inflation took a punch when industrial production data came out Monday, which shows a sharp fall. Factory output is at its lowest level in eight months, falling 2.4% YoY. The market had hoped for a rate cut from RBI next month in light of the lower inflation numbers, but this may compel the bank to be more cautious. BS
    • Reliance Jio is set to raise Rs. 15,000 crore through a rights issue, amid problems with call drops and falling data speeds for new customers. Jio launched its commercial service a month before India's largest ever spectrum auction, which starts on October 1. Firstpost
    • Photo of the Day: A pro-Kannada organization protestor carries a scale during protests against a SC order on Cauvery water sharing. AP/FP
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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2016
    ICICI Prudential is just the first: India's upcoming insurance IPOs

    ICICI Prudential is just the first: India's upcoming insurance IPOs

    The ICICI Prudential IPO, set at a price band of Rs 300-334, will be the biggest IPO since Coal India’s Rs 15,200-crore listing in October 2010. The IPO could value ICICI Prudential Life at nearly Rs 40,000 crore, which is almost 25% higher than the valuation when ICICI Bank sold a 6 per cent stake in November 2015 to Azim Premji and Temasek. 

    75% of ICICI Pru Life’s business come from unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs).  ICICI Bank, which owns nearly 68 percent of the insurer, is selling up to 181.34 million of its shares in the IPO. 


    The ICICI Prudential IPO is just the first of upcoming insurance IPOs. The insurance regular IRDA plans to mandate all companies with about 10-year history in life insurance and eight years in health insurance to list on stock exchanges within three years.

    India is the 10th largest insurance market in the world and the fifth largest in Asia, but IRDA has long been concerned about low penetration in the sector. Life insurance penetration in India is less than 3%, compared to a global average of 3.5%. The regulator believes that compulsory listing will increase transparency and boost customer confidence in purchasing insurance, and also increase competition in the sector through better outreach efforts.

    Currently the insurance sector, which had opened to private firms in 2000, has 54 insurance companies. Growth has been in double-digits - there was 12% growth in life insurance and 14% growth in non-life insurance, while the health insurance sector grew by 40%.

    So far however, Indian insurance companies have moved slowly in the listing process, Besides HDFC Life's backdoor listing through MaxLife and ICICI Prudential's upcoming IPO, SBI Life has expressed interest in listing but not taken any action.

    Soon however, they will have no choice. Around 32 of India's life and general insurance companies have been in operation for ten years. IRDA regulations will require insurers to take up listing discussions with boards within three months of the new guidelines, and file a IPO roadmap within 45 days of board approval. Firms will have a maximum of three years to list. Insurance firms with distribution tie-ups with banks (the way ICICI Prudential does), will have better valuations and are likely to gain customers more easily through cross-selling and outreach. Overall, the IRDA reforms will be a way for regular shareholders to gain from the growth of the insurance market in the coming years, as India catches up with the rest of the world. 


     

     

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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2016
    L&T Tech Services IPO opens, Mahindra plans a competitor against the Innova

    L&T Tech Services IPO opens, Mahindra plans a competitor against the Innova

    • L&T Tech Services IPO opens today, with L&T looking to offload its 10.2% promoter stake. Earlier in July 2016, another subsidiary of the engineering and construction giant, L&T Infotech had tapped the primary market for funds. The Rs 1,243 crore IPO was oversubscribed nearly 12 times with over a million applications – the highest in five years, but saw a tepid listing. The stock had debuted 6% below its issue price. BS
    • Tremors in global market shook Indian stock markets today, after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren hinted that a Federal rate hike is likely. The Fed is set for a monetary policy review on September 21 and 22. ET
    • Mahindra and Mahindra is planning to launch a car that will compete directly with the Toyota Innova. The company hopes that the new vehicle will be a volume driver for the company, if it manages to become a good alternative to the Innova, which is a favorite as both a family car and with taxi operators in India. LiveMint
    • While the All-IITs Placement committee blacklisted several startups, individual IITs have invited at least 30 of these companies for placement discussions, despite these firms having withdrawn offers to students in previous years. FE
    • Photo of the Day: Mariyappan Thangavelu on the high jump at the Paralympics in Rio, on his way to winning the gold medal. Reuters
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    The Baseline
    09 Sep 2016
    ICICI hires robots, ONGC plans to seek compensation from RIL

    ICICI hires robots, ONGC plans to seek compensation from RIL

    • ONGCplans to seek compensation for the gas worth Rs. 11,000 crore taken by RIL in the KG basin. While the Shah panel said that compensation should go to the government and not the company, ONGC insists that since they discovered the gas, they are owed recompense. FE
    • ICICI Bankis planning to use robots for a fifth of its internal jobs, including updating addresses and mobile numbers, and resolving ATM queries. The lender started experimenting with bots at the beginning of the financial year, and is now set to expand their use. BS
    • Online education startup Byju's has become the Zuckerberg Foundation's first investment in Asia. Byju provides learning and exam prep programmes for competitive tests such as the JEE, CAT, and IAS. LiveMint
    • Amrapali, Unitech and ATS have emerged among the top five defaulters in payments for land allotted to them in Greater Noida. If the defaulters fail to pay they face lease cancellation and penalty interest on their dues. ET
    • Photo of the Day: A wheelchair performer takes part in the opening ceremony of the Paralympics in Rio. Reuters 
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    The Baseline
    08 Sep 2016
    Weak guidance by TCS spurs panic sell, ICICI Prudential IPO coming up

    Weak guidance by TCS spurs panic sell, ICICI Prudential IPO coming up

    • Weak revenue guidance by TCSspurred panic selling of IT stocks, with the top five in IT losing about Rs 40,000 crore in market value, as investors see the momentum loss in TCS as a broader sign of the sector's weakness. US clients in banking, financial services and insurance are all postponing spending, TCS noted. ET
    • The Indian Railways is starting surge and dynamic pricing from Friday, where prices of seats will go up by 10% for every 10% of tickets sold. This excludes seats in 1st AC and EC class. The prices are meant to match demand, so that increased demand for seats increases the price per seat. BS
    • ICICI Prudential IPO is likely to launch in the week of September 19, and the company aims to raise at least Rs. 5,000 crore through the share sale. This is the first IPO by an Indian insurer. The anchor book is already oversubscribed, according to the company, with the demand from US-based investors "extremely high". LiveMint
    • United Breweries says it will stand by its beleagured chairman Vijay Mallya, and he will continue to be chairman despite the ED having reportedly attached his shares in the company. As of now, the company director said that Mallya is not disqualified to be chairman of the firm. Firstpost
    • Photo of the Day: The Soyuz space capsule carrying American and Russian astronauts lands in a field in Kazakhstan after a successful spacewalk. The astronauts experienced gravity for the first time in five and a half months. Reuters
       

       

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    The Baseline
    07 Sep 2016
    Telcos cut Jio's call, India aims for zero petrol imports

    Telcos cut Jio's call, India aims for zero petrol imports

    • Telcos have informed the PMO that they will not pick up Jio's calls, refusing the interconnect points Jio needs to connect on other networks. Escalating the telecom war, the letter from the telecom operators pointed out they don't have the financial resources or the network to meet the Jio demand for interconnect points. They accused Jio of attempting to pass its financial burden for voice calls to its competition. ET
    • The State Bank of India is raising $1 billion through the sale of dollar-denominated bonds to foreign investors. It will become the first Indian lender to raise money by selling securities overseas. These bonds are 'perpetual' and carry no maturity date. LiveMint
    • In an early signal that the festival season will see a sales boost, two-wheeler sales have taken off around Ganesh Chaturthi. Retail sales rose about 10% in August, while wholesale purchases grew 26%. FE
    • India is aiming to reach zero petroleum imports soon, according to Union Minister Nitin Gadkari. The focus on natural gas and alternative fuels, including ethanol and bio-CNG, will he said, decentralize fuel production and enable growth in agri, he added. Firstpost
    • Photo of the day: Chaos at Rahul Gandhi's 'khat sabha' as farmers in UP decamped with the cots. A 'khat' usually costs around Rs. 700-800. IE
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    The Baseline
    06 Sep 2016
    Crowds jostle for Reliance Jio SIM cards, B2B startups struggle to raise money

    Crowds jostle for Reliance Jio SIM cards, B2B startups struggle to raise money

    • Queues have formed outside stores for Jio SIM cards, with stocks running out and activation issues. Speculation has grown that the large response may compel Reliance to extend the free offer beyond January 2017. ET
    • Gas distributors saw a bumper quarter, and companies have seen strong sales volumes and bigger margins. Benefiting from this trend has been Mahanagar Gas. The company has seen a 21% fall in its input costs, which have helped drive up its operating margins by 20%. LiveMint
    • B2B startups are also facing challenges in raising money, with the VC funding crunch reducing to less than half of what it was the previous year. Investors usually look at B2B startups more favorably due to lower customer acquisition costs. FE
    • The Supreme Court, noting the stream of cases against individuals criticising the government has stated that someone making a statement to criticise the government does not invoke an offence under the sedition or defamation law. BS
    • Photo of the Day: A Ganesha idol is loaded on a supply truck on the first day of the festival in Ahmedabad. Reuters/Amit Dave
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    The Baseline
    02 Sep 2016
    Ambani just did a Muhammad Ali on existing telcos

    Ambani just did a Muhammad Ali on existing telcos

    A mobile bill that is lower by 50-60% for the end customer. That is the number that is unsettling telecom companies Airtel, Idea, and Vodafone about Reliance Jio.

    When the news broke yesterday on the morning of September 1st at the Reliance AGM meeting, the trends in the Airtel and Idea stock charts were mirror images of each other: they both tumbled, falling on Mukesh Ambani's announcement of free Jio connections till December 31 and tariff plans that were more ambitious, and more aggressive than what the telcos had expected.

    Key was Mukesh Ambani's remark that "customers should pay for data or voice, not both." The base rate of data on Jio will be 10% of current data prices, and voice calls will be free. 4G will be unlimited at night. The blows to existing operators just kept on coming, Muhammad Ali style. 

    How will these companies respond? Right now Bharti Airtel offers unlimited voice only for its high-end post-paid plans. Both Airtel and Idea announced today that they will cut tariffs to keep customers. Forget growth, they are now scrambling just to retain the numbers they have. But do they have enough bandages to staunch the bleeding? The debt/equity ratio of Airtel stands at 0.5, and of Idea Cellular at 0.7, both above the ideal number of 0.4. Heavy debt on the financial statements for telecom companies mean they don't have much elbow room to respond to Jio. In May, Airtel had decided to sell over 950 telecom towers in the Congo to cut its plus Rs 80,000 crore debt. 

    The silver lining: the aggressive expansion of 4G in India. Airtel hasn't been able to do much for 4G expansion, and penetration is right now at 5% nationally of subscribers. Jio's entry is likely to deepen the market very quickly. Such expansion is good for the incumbents too: if customer behavior around data consumption changes to the higher side, Idea and other telecom operators will be able to ride the benefits. But its going to be a rocky road there. 

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    The Baseline
    02 Sep 2016
    Morning Brief: Airtel, Idea to battle Jio, upcoming L&T Technology Services IPO

    Morning Brief: Airtel, Idea to battle Jio, upcoming L&T Technology Services IPO

    • The mother of all telecom battles is on, with Airtel, Idea and Vodafone set to cut prices to take on Jio's aggressive marketing. Stocks of the telecom rivals fell steeply on Jio news, and companies expect customers will be comparing tariffs closely in the coming months. ET
    • The L&T Technology Services IPO will open on September 12, as L&T prepares to sell 10.2% of its stake in the company. L&T Technology Services, an engineering and R&D firm, has fixed a price band of Rs.850-860 per share. This is the second IPO from L&T, whose IT unit L&T Infotech Ltd saw its Rs..1,243 crore IPO subscribed 11.69 times. LiveMint
    • Tata Motorssaw a 6% growth in its commercial and passenger vehicles in August, with passenger vehicles growing faster at 16%. Caution over business growth is tamping down commercial sales, with many companies in wait and watch mode, postponing large purchases. Firstpost
    • With the sale of bad loans lagging, the RBI has expanded potential buyers to include NBFCs, other banks, and financial institutions. RBI has asked banks to use the "swiss challenge" method, where bids will be published and others will be asked to exceed or match it. BS
    • Photo of the Day: First graders in Ukraine at a ceremony marking the start of a new school year, express their anguish. Reuters
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    The Baseline
    01 Sep 2016
    Morning Brief: RIL announces freebies, gets indicted for KG Basin issue, cement companies fined

    Morning Brief: RIL announces freebies, gets indicted for KG Basin issue, cement companies fined

    • Jaiprakash Associates received the highest fine of Rs. 1,320 crore from the Competition Commission of India, which fined ten major cement companies Rs 6,320 crore in total for price fixing, and deliberately restricting production and distribution of cement to keep prices high in the economy NDTV
    • Reliance Industries chief Mukesh Ambani has upped the ante, offering free voice calls and data for its customers from September 5 to December 31. Jio's 4G network covers 18,000 cities and towns, and over 2 lakh villages. By March 2017, the company expects to have a network that reaches 90% of India's population. ET
    • In the meantime the AP Shah Panel has indicted Reliance Industries, saying that the company tried to enrich itself unfairly, retaining the gas that flowed into its own basin from the nearby ONGC-run fields. The panel said that the government is eligible for compensation from Reliance. LiveMint
    • 41 companies have rewarded shareholders with bonus shares in FY17. These include 4 PSEs, of which three are the oil marketing companies HPCL. BPCL and IOCL, which have seen good results over the past quarters. BS
    • Photo of the Day: The tall and the short of it, as John Kerry and Sushma Swaraj talk before a meeting. Prakash Singh/AFP/Getty Images 

       

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