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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    30 Sep 2016
    BSE fall triggers stock buying spree, Varun Beverages plans October IPO

    BSE fall triggers stock buying spree, Varun Beverages plans October IPO

    • Varun Beverages Ltd, the world’s second largest PepsiCo bottler, is planningan October IPO to raise as much as Rs1,400 crore. Once the initial public offering (IPO) is completed, the non-promoter holding, including private equity investors and the public, will be 25-26%. Varun Beverages is raising money to reduce its debt  of Rs.1450 crore  - at present its debt/equity ratio is 2, and will come down to 1 after the IPO.  

    • The strikes across the LOC also triggered a stock buying spree from foreign investors and domestic institutional investors, as the panic created a selloff in the markets. BSE listed companies lost 2.45 lakh crore in market capitalization on the news of the attacks, and Institutional investors swooped in and bought equities worth over Rs 5,000 crore yesterday,Mutual funds were also net buyers, and foreign portfolio investors bought in excess of Rs 3,413 crore of equities. ET

    • The Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) of the NDA government for black money holders to declare assets, closes today. The NDA government pushed the scheme in the media as the last chance for black money holders to safely declare these assets, after which penalties would be anywhere from 100% to 300%, and would include jail terms of upto seven years. The government has hoped to raise at least Rs. 35,000 crore from the scheme. Early reports estimate that the government will meet this target, and Mumbai tops the list with over Rs. 5000 crore declared at last count.

    • With hawks and doves both taking to the media to push their points of view either in favor or against war with Pakistan, estimates are emerging of the cost of an aggressive war with nuclear options deployed - besides a high death toll, two billion people in India and worldwide would face risks of severe starvation due to the climatic effects and damage to agriculture from nuclear-weapon use.

    • Photo of the day:A moment of calm among the mangroves, inside the Ecological Reserve in Ecuador. Reuters

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    The Baseline
    29 Sep 2016

    Map: how much money do Indians spend on medical care, out of pocket?

    #dataview Health insurers like ICICI Prudential point out that insurance coverage in India remains extremely low, and there is significant potential for growth in this sector as Indians increase their spending on medical care. So how much money do Indians spend out of pocket on their health today?

    The interactive map shows that the largest out of pocket medical expenses are in Kerala, West Bengal, Delhi and Punjab. The lowest spends are in the North East (with Nagaland at the lowest at less than Rs. 100 per person per year) and Bihar, Rajasthan.  

    Research has shown a correlation between your level of education and the amount you spend on healthcare, especially preventive. The existing tendency to visit the doctor only when you have no choice - when there is pain or advanced stage of disease - is slowly moving towards the mindset of regular checkups, but as can be seen from spending variations on the map, this shift will take time. A 'prevention of disease' attitude is linked to increased insurance rates, so the growth that private insurers like ICICI Prudential and HDFC MaxLife are seeking will take years to build up. and a lot hinges on insurer ability to provide coverage on an affordable basis.

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    The Baseline
    29 Sep 2016
    ICICI Prudential has an underwhelming debut, pressure builds on RBI to cut rates

    ICICI Prudential has an underwhelming debut, pressure builds on RBI to cut rates

    • ICICI Prudential made it debut on the stock markets today with a rather underwhelming listing, now below 6% of its issue price. However analysts had pointed out that the IPO is a longer-term hold, as the insurance market matures in the country and the major players - ICICI Pru and HDFC Max Life - deepen their markets.

    • Pressure is building on the RBI for a interest rate cut, with the government giving non-too-subtle hints that the RBI is being too conservative in cutting the interest rate. In a swipe against the institution, the Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian called RBI "a little backward" on inflation concerns. Senior finance ministry officials have called a rate cut during the October 4 review "a given," adding to a chorus clearly meant for the ears of Urjit Patel.  

    • Global oil prices jumped 5% on the news that the OPEC has agreed to a deal for the first time in eight years to cut its oil production. Saudi oilrevenue has halved over the past two years, forcing the country to liquidate billions of dollars of their overseas assets every month to paytheir bills and cut the generous subsidies Saudi citizens received. These subsidies have been a way for the kingdom to maintain its hold in a highly undemocratic setup. 

    • Bharat Pumps is the first PSU up for sale from the Modi government, The company is deep in the red, and had posted a net loss of Rs 4,777 crore in 2014-15. It as recommended for revival and disinvestment by the NITI Aayog.

    • Photo of the day: Part of the MH17 Malaysian Airlines plane in Donetsk, Ukraine. Prosecuters said yesterday that the missile that shot the plane down came from Russia. Reuters/Maxim Zmeyev

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    The Baseline
    28 Sep 2016
    India in the top ten in venture capital, sees decline in corruption

    India in the top ten in venture capital, sees decline in corruption

    India scored high in this year's Global Competitiveness Index, jumping 16 ranks to come 55th in the world, ending five straight years of declines. A closer look tells us that the big themes of the government have paid off in improvements in key rankings.

    The biggest improvements (see above) have been in the campaign themes of 2014 - a decline in corruption and favoritism by public officials in business decisions, and fewer regulations. India has improved its ranking in corruption indicators and now ranks between 30-40 in favortism by public officials, and overall ethics and corruption. Corporate accountability and disclosures have also seen big jumps. The country also logged improvements in road infrastructure and electricity availability. 

    Top ten in venture capital availability

    In a time when China is slowing, India is seen as the next big source of growth, and this is reflected in the fact that the country has hit the top ten in venture capital availability. ?This is the metric where India scores the highest. India has also seen big jumps in reforming hiring and firing practices, and protection of intellectual property.

    Worst declines

    Anyone who has followed the news headlines know this already: inflation remains a hard to tackle problem, and we rank 101 out of 138 countries due to our inflation rate. We have failed to rein it in to the target 5%, which the RBI has repeatedly said is required for the interest rate cuts the FM so badly wants. Growth and high inflation are a wobbly balance, and this may continue to be a speedbreaker for growth and increasing customer spending.

    With IT services on the downswing, exports have also taken a hit. We are not doing too well either in primary and higher education rankings. Fewer children are enrolling in schools now compared to the UPA years, and this backsliding doesn't bode well for longer-term growth.

    Biggest challenge

    India still has one of the highest budget deficits in the world - we rank 119. The last couple of years has seen the country move in the right direction - the government's push for the use of Aadhaar in providing benefits and public services will be key to further reducing leakages and spends. Agricultural reform remains the one big bear that no Central government wants to poke, and unless there is reform and better policy in this sector, deficits will remain high. 

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    The Baseline
    28 Sep 2016
    TRAI turns class monitor on telcos, Dilip Buildcon bags large highway project

    TRAI turns class monitor on telcos, Dilip Buildcon bags large highway project

    • TRAI is now intervening more aggressively in the war between telcos, and has called for a meeting on September 30 - just one day before the spectrum auctions - to discuss accusations by operators that Reliance Jio is violating TRAI tariff orders, which states that pricing should be non-predatory. The telcos say that Jio's free pricing on voice calls violates this, since it offers free voice calls beyond 90 days. TRAI has already issued showcause notices to telcos on high call drop rates between Jio and other networks, an issue for which Jio and incumbents are blaming each other. 

    • Upping the pressure on Pak PM Nawaz Sharif, India has declined to attend the SAARC Summit in Islamabad, automatically cancelling the summit and isolating Pakistan further in South Asia, where other countries have allied with India on the terrorism and militancy issue. ET

    • The NHAI has awarded a large Rs. 2,845 crore highway project to Dilip Buildcon, for the four-laning of the Lucknow-Sultanpur highway in UP. There is likely going to be a significant uptick in road projects awarded to infra firms, following government announcements of projects for 10,000 km of roads in just this financial year.

    • The Netherlands is ranked in the top five for highest minimum wages in the world, at approximately $1,680 per month. But Dutch companies are exporting their exploitation to India, and a recent report has highlighted that Dutch firms are paying Indian textile workers "starvation wages" of less than $100 a month, driving many of these workers into debt. A living wage in India is estimated at around $282 a month.  

    • Photo of the day: Preparations for Durga Puja and Navratri are heating up - dancers rehearse for the Garba. Reuters/Amit Dave

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    The Baseline
    27 Sep 2016
    Walmart may join Flipkart against Amazon, RIL and ONGC to be hit with gas price fall

    Walmart may join Flipkart against Amazon, RIL and ONGC to be hit with gas price fall

    • Giant versus Giant: Is Walmart joining Flipkart to take on Amazon together? In a twist, the world's biggest retailer Walmart may be joining the flailing Flipkart in an equity partnership to take on Amazon. This would mean Walmart acquiring a minority stake in Flipkart, one which would give it access to the Indian e-commerce market, and Flipkart could potentially use the wholesale points Walmart has set up in India. Walmart lags substantially behind Amazon in e-commerce, with $14 billion of online sales compared to Amazon's $99 billion. ET

    • In a setback for firms like ONGC and RIL, India is likely to cut the price of natural gas by 18% according to Bloomberg. The government-set price formula will track the global decline in prices and fall to less than $2.5 per million British thermal units for the coming October-March time period from $3.06 today. The announcement is due this week. India, as a signatory to the Paris Climate agreement, has been trying to follow in the footsteps of US and Europe in replacing coal in power production with natural gas. However falling prices will limit investments companies can make that are needed to increase gas production. 

    • Telcos are about to get into a whole lot of trouble with TRAI, with the regulator planning to issue showcause notices to telcos for high call drop rates and a decline in call quality for consumers. In light of Jio complaints about high call drop rates and the absence of interconnect points, TRAI had asked all telecom operators to submit network congestion details from September 15-19. After reviewing the data, it found that call failures are far in excess of norms and has decided to issue notices seeking explanations.

    • While the Foreign Investment Board of the government approved 11 of 18 FDI proposals on its table - including those of IBM and Sharekhan - it deferred approval for foreign investment proposals submitted by Idea Cellular and Flag Telecom, stating it needed more information to approve. Idea has lost 15% of its value over the last month.

    • Photo of the Day: Indian and US troops conduct a joint training exercise in Uttarakhand, which included counter-terrorism tactics. Firstpost/PTI

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    The Baseline
    26 Sep 2016
    From the boardroom to behind bars: Indian CEOs who landed up in jail

    From the boardroom to behind bars: Indian CEOs who landed up in jail

    #Infographic: Business leaders and CEOs are more accepted in India than ever before. Until the 1990s Indian politics was contemptuous of capitalism, calling it 'cut-throat', Indira Gandhi even referred to business leaders as 'dark and evil forces.' We have come a long way, with leading business CEOs and MDs celebrated in the news, and successful startup founders veiewed as something to aspire toward.
    However CEOs don't have the immunity and protections India's politicians seem to have, and every now and then a high profile case has landed business leaders in prison (see infographic). Ramlinga Raju, the former CEO of Satyam Computers, was one of the most notorious, and he confessed to an accounting fraud to the tune of ?7,000 crore or $1.5 billion. Raju described how initial, small cover-ups in quarterly performance escalated over the years to truly large-scale fraud: "It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten." 
    Subrata Roy, the Chairman of Sahara, hit the headlines in equally dramatic fashion. His company Sahara India Pariwar ran full page ads for a savings schemes, promising high returns that drew a large number of investors, and that SEBI ruled to be illegal. Unable to return Rs.20,000 crore to the many small investors who had put in their money, Subrata Roy landed in jail, and remains in Tihar.
    Jignesh Shah is another more recent case, in legal trouble now and arrested by the CBI for activities linked to the MCX and his own company, FTIL. Shah is likely to spend years in court fighting these cases. Another recent lesser-profile case involved the CEO and MD of Rathi Steel and Power. Pradeep and Udit Rathi participated in the allocation of coal blocks by the UPA government, and both the CEO and MD were convicted to three years in prison for 'misrepresentation' and exaggerating their company's capacity, in order to get coal blocks allocated to them. 
    But there have also been problems with overzealous prosecution. The detention ofAmway CEO William Scott Pickney for instance, due to a warrant issued by a district court in Andhra Pradesh, as well as the imprisonment in 2012 of Chetan Mahajan, head of an IIT coaching company, for a month in Bokaro jail after the firm's faculty quit and the parents of students handed him over to police, are examples where heads of companies were put in jail on flimsy pretexts. Pickney was in fact arrested twice in India, first in Kerala and then later in AP, due to a misreading of an 1978 Act that was put into place before direct selling. A warrant was also issued to the Sify Technologies CEO Kamal Nath for providing tech services to Amway. 
    Crony capitalism continues to be a problem in India - India ranks ninth in the world here - but better regulation and enforcement, thanks to the independence of regulators like SEBI and laws like the Companies Act, mean the environment have improved in recent years. In fact, in recent scams that have involved both government officials and companies, company officials are more likely to be prosecuted and brought to justice than the politicians  who colluded with them.  Transparency International rankedIndian firms as the most transparent among all Emerging Markets, with Airtel gaining the top spot. Indian regulators have pushed more stringent laws in recent years, such as RBI's recent guidelines on disclosure and auction of stressed assets, and TRAI's rulings in favor of net neutrality. Hopefully these will help catch fraud and malpractice early, before they grow to the size of the Satyam and Sahara Parivar scams. 

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    The Baseline
    26 Sep 2016
    GNA Axles IPO makes impressive debut, Jio SIM cards sit unactivated

    GNA Axles IPO makes impressive debut, Jio SIM cards sit unactivated

    • Even as the war between Jio and the Cellular Operators Association heats up, its becoming harder to get hold or activate a Jio SIM card. Users that stood in queues for a SIM card have been waiting for over two weeks for activation. E-KYC booths at the stores were supposed to enable activation within 15 minutes, but these booths are available only in Mumbai and Delhi at a few outlets. This combined with delays by Airtel and others in providing number portability, have led to users stuck with an unactivated SIM. Due to delays and long queues in getting the Jio SIM have some dealers taking advantage, selling the free SIMs for upto Rs. 40.
    • The GNA Axles IPO, which had received middling reviews from experts made an impressive debut on markets today, scoring a 20% premium over the offer price, The Rs 130 crore IPO was oversubscribed nearly 54.88 times. The company is export oriented, and brokerages and analysts had pegged it as a somewhat risky investment in a slowing global market. 
    • The Central government and the Supreme Court may be nearing a showdown on Aadhaar, with the court issuing a stay on UGC's rule that made Aadhaar mandatory for government scholarships. The Aadhaar law itself permits the use of the number for government benefits, subsidies and services, but does not make Aadhaar mandatory. The government's argument has been that the use of Aadhaar authentication will reduce fraud and leakage of essential services and subsidies. 
    • Amazon will start up the festival sales on October 1, a day ahead of Flipkart and Snapdeal, who will launch their own discounts starting October 2. With e-commerce players restricted from handing out big discounts on their own due to new rules, they have been trying to incentivise merchants on their platform to offer discounts to customers. Amazon will be spending at least twice the marketing budget of Flipkart to attract customers during the season.
    • Photo of the day: Virat Kohli knocked out early in the innings between India and New Zealand with 18 runs, while Jadeja and Sharma scored half-centuries. Firstpost
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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2016
    Stock Market Research Reports: September 19-22

    Stock Market Research Reports: September 19-22

    Research reports summary from brokerages this week, with six BUY reports, and one SELL report for MindTree.
    Mindtree also has the ignominy of being listed among the Top 20 Wealth Destroyers by ETMarkets. Mindtree has lost nearly 35% of its market value over the last one year, troubled by top exec exits, multiple project cancellations and the headwinds that have hit the IT sector. 
    Stock pick of the week by brokerages is Essel Propack Limited. The company has received three BUY reports over the last three weeks, with two brokerages revising targets upwards.  
    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-09-22HeidelbergCement India Limited 160.0018.74%BUY134.75Dynamic Levels 2x
    2016-09-21Essel Propack Limited 262.0011.97%BUY234.00Emkay and 1 other1x
    2016-09-21Tata Coffee Limited 150.0016.50%BUY128.75Dynamic Levels
    2016-09-21Idea Cellular Limited --BUY83.30Nirmal Bang 2x
    2016-09-20Banco Products (I) Limited 270.0021.65%BUY221.95Dynamic Levels
    2016-09-20Siti Cable Network Limited 35.00--34.55ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-09-20Blue Dart Express Limited 6500.0019.45%BUY5441.70ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-09-19Relaxo Footwears Limited 419.00--465.00Emkay
    2016-09-19MindTree Limited 490.003.48%SELL507.65Emkay 2x

    See all reports here. 

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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2016
    New RBI Monetary Committee clips Guv wings but keeps independence; L&T TechServices lists

    New RBI Monetary Committee clips Guv wings but keeps independence; L&T TechServices lists

    • L&T Technology Services, which had received a BUY rating from 5/7 brokerages, listed at a premium of 7% over its offer price in stock markets today. The price has ticked down slightly as of 12:00 pm, currently trading approximately 4.4% higher at Rs. 897. The stock performance is faring better than the previous L&T subsidiary that listed in July. L&T Infotech had been over-subscribed by nearly 12 times and had listed 6% below its issue price of Rs. 710, and has yet to cross it's issue price on the stock market. 

    • Those wary of government interference in India's Central Bank can heave a sigh of relief today, now that the three new appointees to the Monetary Policy Committee have no government representative to push the agenda. The Modi government's new appointees to the MPC - which trims the wings of the RBI Governor, requiring interest rates to be decided by committee - are three professors, including Ravindra Dholakia of IIMA, who has been a critic of former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's policies. 

    • The Supreme Court has sent Subrata Roy back to jail. Roy has been on parole since May, the handcuffs came off first on humanitarian grounds due to the death of his mother and later for him to arrange money for his investors. The SC however refused his latest request for parole extension. 

    • How bloody is the battle for market share going to be in the telecom sector? Vodafone's international arm has just put a lot more money into Vodafone India's wallet, giving it a Rs. 47,700 crore cash infusion ahead of the spectrum bid that begins on October 1. This is at a time when worry about market growth has reached new heights - data revenue growth for existing operators have slowed considerably from last year, with Airtel's expanding at just 4.5% in the June quarter, and Vodafone's shrinking to 22% compared to last year's 65%.

    • Photo of the day: Mumbai on alert, with NSG and Force One sent to the city after schoolkids spot armed men in Navi Mumbai. Firstpost

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