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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    05 Jul 2019
    Budget takeaways: Expanded public holding in listed firms, tax reforms

    Budget takeaways: Expanded public holding in listed firms, tax reforms

    Key budget takeaways.from the speech below. The budget, analysts said, did not take significant proactive movements around job creation and urban reforms. Tax reforms were significant, as well as the expansion of public holdings in listed companies. 

    • 12:59 pm: Cess for road and infra raised by Re 1 on petrol.
    • 12:57 pm: Higher surcharges on individuals with taxable income of Rs. 2 crore - Rs 5 crore and Rs 5 crore and above will increase tax rates by 3% and 7% respectively. 
    • 12:55 pm: To discourage business payments in cash, TDS of 2% on withdrawals exceeding Rs. 1 crore in a year. 
    • 12:54 pm: NBFC stocks rising as budget speech progresses.
    • 12:53 pm: Revision of tax scrutiny norms of taxpayers. Faceless assessment in electronic mode involving no human interface being launched.
    • 12:52 pm: Pre-filling of tax forms for taxpayers proposed
    • 12:50 pm: Aadhaar can be quoted in place of PAN in transactions and elsewhere.
    • 12:50 pm: Relief in securities transaction tax in options exercise.
    • 12:45 pm: Markets fluctuate, recovering some losses made since the first hour of the Budget speech. 
    • 12:45 pm: For purchase of houses upto Rs. 45 lakh get enhanced interest deductions. 
    • 12:40 pm: Ease for startups in valuation and fundraising. Funds raised will not require scrutiny from IT department
    • 12:40 pm: Lower rate of 25% income tax on corporations expanded from annual turnover of upto 250 crore, to upto 400 crores. Covers 99.3% of all companies.
    • 12:40 pm: Focus on easing the tax burden and simplify tax administration.
    • 12:40 pm: Quoting a Sangam era poet, FM says that the government does not intend to trample taxpayers.
    • 12:35 pm: Focus has now moved to taxation and taxpayers.
    • 12:30 pm: Encourage retail investment into CPSEs. Rs. 1,05,000 crore disinvestment targeted for FY20.
    • 12:30 pm: Government stake of 51% in sectors defined to include government controlled institutions.
    • 12:25 pm: 1 lakh crore corpus for infrastructure investments. 
    • 12:22 pm: Government will provide credit guarantee provision to PSU banks for highly rated assets of NBFCs that fail. RBI will get more regulatory power over NBFCs, with RBI also getting regulatory power over HFCs.
    • 12:20 pm: Focus on strengthening governance in public sector banks.
    • 12:05 pm: Ease of living important for citizens, according to the government. 
    • 12:01 pm: Streamlining of labour laws into four codes proposed. 
    • 12:00 pm: More efforts towards bringing in foreign students, and draft legislation for higher education proposed. 
    • 11:55 am: Sensex falls as FM delivers speech.
    • 11:50 am: Cities and rural India both need attention to prevent overmigration. 
    • 11:40 am: FM announces range of schemes to boost rural economy and facilitate cluster based development. 
    • 11:30 am: Minimum public holding in listed enterprises to be raised to 35% from 25%. 
    • 11:30 am: Listing of social enterprises and voluntary organizations under a separate exchange. 
    • 11:30 am: Streamline investments for FPIs in the stock market, by easing KYC norms. 
    • 11:25 am: Focus on building a corporate bond market: India requires Rs. 20 lakh crore in investment every year. Credit guarantee corporation to be set up. Credit default swaps proposed. Proposed to permit FII investments in debt funds, NBFCs, to be sold or transferred to any domestic investor.
    • 11:23 am: Retail shopkeepers get pensions from the government if their annual turnover is under Rs. 1.5 crore. 
    • 11:22 am: Local sourcing norms mooted for single brand retail companies
    • 11:22 am: Loans for MSMEs through an online portals proposed. Payment platform for MSMEs for payment of bills.
    • 11:20 am: Model tenancy laws and rental law reforms proposed. 
    • 11:20 am: One nation One grid to make power more affordable to states, and improve gas and water distribution.
    • 11:15 am: Rs. 10,000 crore budgeted from April 2019 to drive adoption of electrical vehicles. 
    • 11:10 am: India Inc are nation's wealth and job creators, FM says. Need to encourage investment and ease of business. 
    • 11:08 am: Finance Minister says structural reforms needed for India's growth.
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    The Baseline
    26 Jun 2019
    Red Flag Screener: Companies whose debt has been downgraded

    Red Flag Screener: Companies whose debt has been downgraded

    The Red Flag Screener tracking companies whose debt has received downgrades, include Canara Bank, Nandan Denim, Reliance Capital, and others. These companies have notified the exchanges that they received a downgrade on their debt from various credit rating agencies. This screener is live and updates as announcements come in. These revisions have come in within the past twelve months, and in some cases such as DHFL, involved sharp rating downgrades. 

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    The Baseline
    25 Jun 2019
    Screener: Stocks seeing large insider/SAST sells

    Screener: Stocks seeing large insider/SAST sells

    The stock screener that tracks insider/SAST sells looks at companies that saw sells by promoters and other insiders last week greater than 1% of total shares. This screener is a live one that updates in realtime as trades are reported to the exchanges. Suprajit Engineering tops the list after the company's promoter-directors disposed a total of 38% of total shares via inter-se transfers. Piramal Enterprises has sold nearly 10% of Shriram Transport Finance in the market. Similarly, Sobha sold Sobha - promoters disposed of a significant stake at real-estate firm Sobha. 

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    The Baseline
    24 Jun 2019
    Screener: Stocks with consistent share price growth over 5 yrs, affordable PE

    Screener: Stocks with consistent share price growth over 5 yrs, affordable PE

    The stock market is volatile, as investors find out sooner or later, and even the best stocks weather downturns over earnings uncertainty, economic growth impacts, rising commodity prices, and so on. However, there are stocks that perform consistently in the market, and the consistent stocks screener (subscription, but screenshot above) attempts to identify stocks that have shown share price growth over the past 5 years, with growth % increasing in the last year and last two years. 

    Among the stocks qualifying in this screener are Permanent Magnets, Saksoft and others. Across the market, only 42 stocks qualify for this screener strategy. 

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    The Baseline
    21 Jun 2019, 12:44PM
    Screener: As markets grow volatile, some stocks hit buy zones

    Screener: As markets grow volatile, some stocks hit buy zones

    Markets are jittery on weak global fundamentals and rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. As a result, stocks have grown increasingly volatile. For investors looking for fresh buy ideas, some stocks that delivered revenue and net profit growth, may be looking increasingly affordable with better valuations than in the past few months. This stock screener (subscription, but screenshot above) identifies stocks whose recent falls in share price. Stocks in this screener include Bannari Amman Sugars, Career Point and others. 

    One caution worth remembering is that it's hard to know where the market bottom is, and this is not an approach for the faint-hearted. 

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    The Baseline
    20 Jun 2019
    Inequality test: Pay of Indian CEOs versus their employees

    Inequality test: Pay of Indian CEOs versus their employees

    There has been a lot of talk recently of bringing salaries of employees and CEOs more in balance . But not much has changed in major listed companies even as firms have started publishing the "remuneration ratio" - the salary of directors compared to the median employee in their company. 

    SUN TV has got a fair amount of press for the salary it pays its Managing Director Kalanithi Maran, which is a staggering Rs. 87 crore per year. Perhaps for understandable reasons, they did not publish the remuneration ratio of this salary compared to SUN TV's median employee in company reports. 

    Pawan Munjal, MD of Hero Motocorp and Sajjan Jindal, the MD of JSW Steel, get paid less than Maran at Rs. 75 crore and Rs. 48 crore annually. Munjal gets 838X the salary of the company's median employee (which is Rs. 9 lakh according to the firm), while Sajjan Jindal gets 793X. 

    In the FMCG sector, competition for senior personnel is reportedly fierce, but the ratios here are smaller. The remuneration for ITC's MD was 398X the median employee, and at HUL it was 194X. At Asian Paints, KBS Anand's is 181 times the median Asian Paints employee.

    Software used to be a place where fairness and flat organizations used to be touted, but salaries for senior management have blown up in the past decade. Infosys, whose founder Narayana Murthy often said that salaries for CEOs should be maintained at 25:1 ratios, now has a remuneration 396X the median employee for Salil Parekh, the current CEO, higher than most of its peers. At Wipro, CEO Abidali Neemuchwala has a remuneration of 337X the median, while Rajesh Gopinath's is 262X. 

    The financial sector saw a wide range, from 248X for HDFC Bank to 48X for Kotak Mahindra Bank. Was there anyone who met NRN's standard? There was one CEO of the shortlist surveyed, Umesh Ravenkar of Shriram Transport Finance, whose remuneration was 22X the median employee, below the 25x cutoff.  

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    The Baseline created a screener Net Profit Growth over …
    18 Jun 2019

    Net Profit Growth over 200% both YoY and QoQ

    Companies that delivered over 200% net profit growth both YoY and QoQ
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    The Baseline
    11 Jun 2019
    Screener: Stocks gain compared to previous close, and high RSI

    Screener: Stocks gain compared to previous close, and high RSI

    This livestock screener tracks stocks seeing price and RSI momentum, identifying stocks still rising in share price but that may be moving into overbought territory as per their RSI. Nifty 500 stocks in this screener today include HDFC Asset Management, Tata Global Beverages, Future Retail and 35 other companies. 

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    The Baseline
    05 Jun 2019
    The top five stocks in Trendlyne's DVM Select Screener have seen sharp gains since January

    The top five stocks in Trendlyne's DVM Select Screener have seen sharp gains since January

    The top five stocks in Trendlyne's DVM Select Long Term Screener (for subscribers) have seen strong gains since January, with the biggest gainer rising over 60% since January and the second highest jumping by more than 40%. Subscribers get access to the top DVM Screeners, and can also build their own. 

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    The Baseline
    05 Jun 2019
    Maruti, HUL, ITC, Asian Paints: Companies saying they have increased prices to maintain margins

    Maruti, HUL, ITC, Asian Paints: Companies saying they have increased prices to maintain margins

    As fourth quarter results came in, companies in different sectors noted that they made price increases to combat rising input costs. Various companies reported this during investor and earnings calls. 

    Maruti Suzuki: Maruti said that it saw an improvement in sequential margin due to the impact of price increase (up 0.7% QoQ), lower discounts and higher scale.

    TVS Motors: TVSL took a price increase of 0.4% in Q4FY19.

    Bajaj Consumer Care: In its earnings call, the company said it had done two price increases last year, in April and in August. This year the company has pushed a price increase of around 3.7% in April 2019. The new MRP hit the market during that month, and the company said that this is expected to protect its gross margins. 

    ITC: Post 2 years of stable pricing, ITC has recently hiked prices of select cigarette brands in March 2019.

    Asian Paints: Recent price increases in Oct 2018 and Dec 2018. The company expects margin expansion from these.

    Cummins India: The company pushed a price increase in Q3FY19, the full impact of which is expected to be visible from Q4FY19.

    Godrej Agrovet is on the other hand, facing challenges in pushing price increases to compensate for rising input costs. Feed cost accounts for 60-70% of the total cost for the farmer, making it difficult for the firm to pass on the price increase in raw materials.

    Hindustan Unilever: Price increases for Skin care and Face wash products to maintain margins.

    Kansai Nerolac: Gross margin may decline on higher input costs, INR depreciation and lag in pushing out price increases in Industrial paints.

    Reliance Industries: Reliance noted that within its petrochem business, polyester markets remained volatile during FY19. PFY price increased 11% YoY, however margins dropped 7% to $ 262/MT. This was because the Chinese ban on imports of post-consumer PET effective 1st Jan 2019 was later relaxed leading to the revival of recycling industry, and limiting the uptrend in virgin PSF prices.

    The company said that Asian Naphtha prices increased 16% YoY due to higher crude prices and demand from petrochemicals. Ethylene prices weakened 2% in FY19 YoY due to supply from new crackers in US. Propylene prices in Asia increased by 14% during the year.

    Elantas Beck: The company's Electronics and Construction Chemicals segments witnessed a rise in raw materials costs, which have impacted prices considerably and this business registered a drop of 2.5% in revenues in 2018. The company is passing on the price increase to customers. 

    Mahindra CIE Automotive noted that it may face a potential inability to pass on rising input prices to customers, since the auto industry is already under significant cost pressures. 

    United Spirits: The firm is expecting a potential price increase for its products in Karnataka (30-35% of UNSP’s volumes) which could be positive for the company. 

    Gulf Oil Lubricants: The company says its expecting outlook to be strong on crude price rise and price increases. However, crude prices have softened in recent weeks. 

    Ultratech Cement: pushed a price increase in central states in India.

    Pharma: Of the 9.9% growth in domestic formulations in the industry, ICICI Research estimates 5% is from price increases.

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