By Suhani AdilabadkarEven as inflation eats at the FMCG industry’s margins, Nestle India’s March 2022 quarter was stable.
Nestle India’s stock fell 2% after the company announced its results, but has recovered some of its losses. Negative impact on the stock was mainly because of operating margin which fell two percentage points to 23.2%, and net profit fell 1.25% YoY to Rs 595 crore during the quarter. This is despite a 10.2% YoY revenue growth, which beat the street’s estimates.
The FMCG space is walking on a tightrope, balancing volumes and margins while operating under high commodity price inflation, reduced customer purchasing power, and slowing rural growth. While the management believes that the company has a long runway for growth, the street is keenly watching how urban-centric Nestle, with its premium product portfolio, navigates inflation pressures.
Quick Takes:
- Nestle’s domestic revenues at Rs 3,794 crore, grew 10.2% YoY aided by price hikes in Q1CY22
- Operating margins contracted 252 basis points YoY to 23.2% due to sharp inflation in key raw materials in Q1CY22
- Raw materials like edible oil, wheat, crude and coffee are witnessing 10-year high cost inflation
- Maggi, KitKat, Nescafe and Nestle Munch reported strong growth momentum, milk product portfolio witnessed high competitive pressure
- The company plans capex of Rs 1,900 crore for the next 3-4 years
- Nestle’s e-commerce channel’s revenues grew 71% YoY, and contributed 6.3% to domestic sales
Strong revenue growth in Q1CY22, but margins falter
The maker of Maggi, Nescafe and Kitkat delivered a resilient March 2022 quarter performance. Domestic revenues at Rs 3,794 crore constituted 96% of total revenues and exports were stagnant at Rs 157 crore. The domestic revenue growth was supported by price hikes in Maggi, Nescafe and milk portfolio. Operating margins fell 252 basis points (bps) YoY to 23.2% as raw material costs surged 22% YoY in Q1CY22. The company is facing sharp price increases in edible oil, wheat, coffee, fuel and milk.
On a sequential basis, price hikes implemented during the quarter led to operating margins improving mildly by 8 basis points. Other income down 28% YoY and lower operating margins led to net profit falling 1.25% YoY. Net profit was reported at Rs 595 crore in Q1CY22 compared to Rs 602 crore, a year ago.
Maggi, KitKat, Nescafe perform well, milk products face challenges
Nestle has four business segments - milk products and nutrition, prepared dishes and cooking aids, confectionery and beverages.
Prepared dishes and cooking aids constitute Maggi, Maggi sauces, Masala-ae-Magic and Maggi Pazzta. Maggi noodles reported strong growth momentum aided by a mix of volume growth and price hikes. Maggi volume growth received impetus after the commissioning of the Sanand facility in Q4CY21, which mainly caters to the instant Maggi noodles category.
Nestle’s market share stands at 60% in the instant noodles category. According to the management, Maggi Sauces and Maggi Masala-ae-Magic growth during Q1CY22 was impacted by a gradual shift from in-home to out-of-home consumption and opening up of schools and offices.
The confectionery segment is driven by KitKat and Nestle Munch, which reported double-digit growth supported by media campaigns, strong festive interventions and focused distribution drives. Nestle’s market share in the wafer chocolate category stands at 64% in India. In beverages, Nescafé Classic and Sunrise delivered double-digit growth aided by strong winter season consumption. Nestle is the market leader with 50% market share in the instant coffee segment. As out of home consumption increases, both confectionery and beverages (ready to drink) segments are expected to continue with their strong growth momentum.
Milk products and nutrition contribute nearly 40% of the total revenue mix. The segment comprises baby food products like Cerelac, Ceregrow, Lactogen, Lactogrow, Nangrow and milk products like Milkmaid, EveryDay and Nestle Nourish (milk, curd, slim milk, probiotic curd). While the nutrition category comprising baby food was well supported by price hikes, the milk products category faced challenges from competition in Q1CY22. Milk products and nutrition segment has grown in single digits only for the past seven years. The segment also reported lowest YoY revenue growth across all four segments in CY21.
Nestle is a dominant player in infant food (Cerelac) and infant formula milk (Lactogen) segments, with 96% and 74% market share respectively, in India. The company is also doing well in the baby food category with Ceregrow and Nangrow.
Speaking on the milk product category’s muted growth, Suresh Narayanan, Managing Director at Nestle said, “We are not an empty calorie (low margin) business.” Nestle milk products like slim milk, yogurt and probiotic products are premium priced compared to close peers Amul, Mother Dairy and Godrej Jersey, which have given Nestle tough competition over the past few years.
Premiumisation and innovation to combat inflation
After a 1-3% price hike in Q4CY21, Nestle again raised prices of Maggi, Nescafe, KitKat, Nestle Milk during the January-March 2022 period. The company also indicated that further price hikes might be taken to combat raw material price inflation which is currently at a 10-year high. Unlike other FMCG players with high crude exposure in their home care (detergents) and personal care segments (soaps and shampoos), Nestle’s raw material basket is agriculture-based with wheat, edible oil, coffee and milk as its major constituents.
Milk prices are seeing an uptick after a two-year period of low prices, driven by increase in animal feed (soyabean, maize etc) prices and high energy and logistic costs. Dairy farmers are expected to pass on high price hikes to end users in the coming quarters.
The milk and nutrition portfolio is expected to witness price increases in the near term. Wheat prices are up 15-20% YoY in April 2022 driven by high international prices (spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine war) and also as wheat and corn commodities are diverted for ethanol production. High wheat prices are going to increase baby food and confectionary product prices. Coffee prices are on the rise due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and low productivity in Vietnam. International coffee prices increased more than 25% since August last year. Price increases in Nescafe, coffee premixes and ready to drink variants might be on the cards again, in case international coffee prices rise further.
According to the management, edible oil (palm oil) prices increased 90% from its 10-year mean historical levels for Nestle. Palm oil prices are expected to increase further with the Indonesian ban on exports. Indonesia accounts for about 60% of total palm oil output globally. Palm oil is used in noodles, chocolates, sauces, and pasta categories. Thus Maggi, KitKat, Munch, Maggi sauces and pasta are expected to witness price hikes in the near term. And lastly high crude prices (up 80% YoY) will increase packaging costs.
Impact of rising prices on consumer demand
The management is confident of navigating through the decade-high commodity cost inflation by taking judicious price hikes and maintaining its operating margins. But will these price hikes impact demand?
“We are not a bar of soap or biscuits present in almost every household”, Narayanan said, adding that Nestle’s premium products are relatively lower penetrated compared to other FMCG companies and have a long runway of growth.
Catering to its urban centric consumer profile which constitutes 75-80% of its revenue base, Nestle also firmed up its innovation pipeline. Nearly 100 new products have been launched since 2016. Various Maggi variants, coffee premixes, new KitKat and Munch flavours, Nesplus (breakfast cereals) to name a few and also a new health science portfolio with products like Optifast (low calorie diet) and Nestle Resource (high protein powder).
There are twenty more new products in the pipeline and the company also plans to add new categories in its product portfolio. The company expects its premiumisation strategy and innovation agenda will support its revenue growth in the current high inflation scenario. Nestle's capex plan is around Rs 1,900 crore for the next 3-4 years.
Nestle’s new products contributed 5% to the revenue base in CY21. With judicious pricing, a strong distribution network and ecommerce penetration, Nestle can take the competition head-on in all its product categories. Nesplus competes with Kelloggs, Nestle Resource combats large established brand, Ensure and Milo is fighting against Horlicks, Bournvita and Boost.
The management is highly optimistic even in the weak demand environment, but it’s worth remembering that consumer buying calculations change rapidly when inflation keeps rising Regardless of brand appeal, all businesses are vulnerable to more frugal customers.
For now at least, Nestle’s management is upbeat. “Maggi was not built in a day,” Narayanan said, “nor was Nescafe or KitKat. We have the stomach, courage, and wherewithal to make it happen.”