Sector Updates

Q4FY25 Earnings Play : Auto OEMs: Ashok Leyland, TVS Motors. (M&M - Non-Coverage) Auto Ancillary: UNO Minda, Sansera Engineering Ltd, SSWL

is a key monitorable, given weak credit flow in the last few quarters. NIM for coverage HFCs could fall by 6bps QoQ to 2.96%. NII may inch up by 0.7% QoQ to Rs26.2bn. Opex could rise by 6.1% QoQ to Rs5.95bn due to other opex (+14.2% QoQ) partially offset by a 2.1% decline in employee cost. Hence, PPoP could be flat QoQ at Rs22.4bn. We see provisions normalizing to 19bps (vs -0.02bps in Q3FY25) as LICHF had seen a write-back last quarter. PAT...

reported robust growth. Within categories, 2W OEMs reported flattish growth in domestic market owing to softer wedding seasons sales and moderation in urban markets. On the flipside, 2W exports recorded strong growth led by recovery in key markets and diversification towards different regions. Tractors dispatches grew in mid-teens aided by strong rabi outlook and positive farm...

Industry MAAuM as at Feb'25 stood at Rs67.6trn and equity/debt share was 53.4%/16%. Equity flows continue to remain strong; excluding NFOs, Jan'25 and Feb'25 together saw net flows of Rs702bn compared to Rs1,207bn in Q3FY25. Equity QAAuM growth is likely to decline in Q4FY25 by 4.0-4.5% due to equity correction in Jan'25 & Feb'25; industry QAAuM de-grew by 1.7% QoQ to Rs67.4trn (+3.6% QoQ in Q3FY25), while closing equity AuM (incl. bal) saw a QTD de-growth of 9.3% in Feb'25. We expect AMCs in our coverage to see equity QAAuM de-growth of 4.3% QoQ...

better NIM movement. Due to seasonality in case of PSU banks, fees might grow at 11.4% QoQ, to Rs429.7bn (vs -1.3% in Q3FY25), which would be more than offset by rise in opex to Rs971bn (+7.2% QoQ). Core PPoP may be Rs944bn (-0.7% QoQ). Large private banks (ex-IIB) may outperform on core PPoP. Gross slippage ratio might improve slightly post elevated agri slippage in Q3FY25. Banks' PAT is expected to decrease by 5.7% QoQ to Rs634.3bn due to lower...

QoQ. ONGC and OINL are liley to report a decline in oil and gas production. CGDs are expected to report sequentially better results owing to partial spreads. We build in steady telecom performance with an ARPU of Rs208; retail...

We expect pharmaceuticals companies under our coverage to deliver another solid quarter with EBIDTA growing of 16% YoY (down 3% QoQ). This momentum is fueled by 1) strong traction from niche US launches (gRevlimid, gSpiriva, gMyrbetriq, etc.) 2) Steady performance in domestic market and 3) Currency tailwinds supporting margins. Stable raw material pricing and price erosion in US further supporting the performance YoY. However, R&D cost are likely to remain elevated. In domestic formulation business, continued ramp-up in chronic therapies are likely to support growth during the quarter. Our top picks...

EBITDA and PAT are expected to decline by 20.6% and 24.1% YoY, respectively, mainly due to margin contraction of 380bps YoY, largely because of inventory losses and volatility in PVC resin prices. Supreme Industries and Astral are expected to post moderate sales growth of +3.2% and +4.3% YoY, respectively, with volume growth in the Pipes & Fittings (P&F)...

domestic steel companies is expected to improve ~1% QoQ in Q4FY25 as flat imports and create a floor for Indian steel pricing. Heightened global uncertainties kept the exports markets under pressure. In contrast long product prices declined by 1% due to lower-than-expected infrastructure activities. Due to employee strike at NMDC mines, domestic iron ore prices stayed elevated however coking coal further softened 9% QoQ during Q4FY25. Initial announcements of US tariffs and rationalization of Chinese steel capacities had led to increase in steel prices across regions. However,...

Impact of reciprocal tariffs by US on Indian chemical companies: Indian chemical companies are expected to benefit in terms of export to the USA. However, Chinese manufacturers may divert their products through countries like Argentina and Brazil to USA to avoid tariffs. In non-US markets including domestic Indian market, Indian companies are likely to face stiff competition from Chinese due to low-cost dumping. US has raised tariff on Indian import of chemicals from 2% to 26%, while tariffs on import of Chinese chemicals...