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LPG distributors are demanding a sharp increase in commission to Rs150/cyl, nearly double the current Rs73.08/cyl. With OMCs already estimated to face under-recoveries of ~Rs400bn in FY25 due to constrained pricing flexibility, any further increase in distributor marginsif not passed throughcould worsen the financial stress. Given the stretched valuations that the companies are trading at currently and expectations of a bounce back in crude prices to USD70-80/bbl in the near term amid inability to pass on increase in fuel cost to customers, we maintain our cautious view on OMCs. We downgrade rating on...
farmer income and demand for crop inputs going ahead global chemical production. Production in the EU was largely stagnant. Demand continues to remain weak in other key markets, leading to pressure on realizations, especially for agrochemicals. Recent commentaries and outlook of global chemical giants suggest that that recovery is not expected in CY25. We continue to maintain our cautious stance on the sector considering muted demand recovery and pricing pressure, especially for agrochemicals. Out of our coverage universe, we remain positive on Fine Organics, Navin Fluorine and...
In a boost for the sector, RBI eases LCR norms To improve system liquidity and consequently spur credit growth, RBI has changed its stance to accommodative since Dec'24 as effected by (1) CRR cut of 50bps in Dec'24 (2) repo rate cut of 50bps till date (2) OMOs purchase of G-Sec by RBI to improve liquidity (3) postponing the applicability of new LCR guidelines by a year to 1st Apr'26. In this backdrop of its accommodative stance, RBI has relaxed some requirements of the new LCR framework....
A Tale of Two Cities: MGL continues to post robust volume growth, while IGL faces stagnation in its core Delhi market MoPNG has cut APM allocation for CGD entities and accordingly revised domestic gas allocation for MGL and IGL is ~18% and ~20% lower than previous allocation. The shortfall will be met by New Well Gas which is Brent linked. We believe sourcing cost post de-allocation may not increase significantly due to softening Brent and LNG prices, and with price hikes undertaken by both the companies in April, the impact may not be detrimental. We re-iterate positive...
In March, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.3%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 2.1%. This sharp sequential drop in headline CPI inflation was mainly driven by lower food prices.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted that rising temperatures could push up prices of perishables in the coming weeks. Although the initial above-normal monsoon forecast is positive, its timing and distribution will be crucial for agricultural output and food inflation.
The RBI has cut the benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.0%, marking the lowest level in the policy rate since Sep’22. The central bank also changed its stance from neutral to accommodative. This decision aligns with market expectations and shifting focus from inflation control to growth revival.
We interacted with Mr. Mukesh Sahdev, Senior VP & Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, to assess the evolving oil price trajectory within the new global trade environment. The outlook suggests that oil prices may have bottomed out, with forecasted demand far ahead of supply in the peak MarAug'25. Average crude prices are expected to moderate from USD80/bbl in 2024 to USD75/bbl in 2025. However, geopolitical supply risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, including recession probabilities, are key swing...
Britannia Inds - BRIT retains market leadership in core segments and has little risk of disruption from B2C brands. It has faced the brunt of sharp spikes in the prices of wheat and palm oil which has necessitated 4-6% price hikes. We believe the worst margin pressure is over and expect recovery post 4Q25 which will provide 14.4% EPS growth over FY25-27. The stock trades at 41x FY27 EPS. Retain Buy with a target price of Rs5,881. Titan Company - TITAN is expected to show 20% PAT CAGR over FY25-27 as Jewellery margins have bottomed out at 10.8% (11.1% by FY27), watch profitability...
