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Broker Research reports: Sector Updates
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In April, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.2%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 0.9%. This sharp sequential drop in WPI inflation was mainly driven by lower food & fuel prices.
Bank of America analysts believe that food prices will remain “in check,” while core inflation will climb due to higher gold prices. The brokerage forecasts that GDP growth will recover to 6.7%, compared to the 6.2% seen in Q3FY25.
In the long term, we prefer TVS Motors and Hero Motocorp in 2Ws; M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also keep a close watch on Ashok Leyland and Eicher (VECV) in the CV space for potential volume growth.
In March, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.3%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 2.1%. This sharp sequential drop in headline CPI inflation was mainly driven by lower food prices.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted that rising temperatures could push up prices of perishables in the coming weeks. Although the initial above-normal monsoon forecast is positive, its timing and distribution will be crucial for agricultural output and food inflation.
The RBI has cut the benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.0%, marking the lowest level in the policy rate since Sep’22. The central bank also changed its stance from neutral to accommodative. This decision aligns with market expectations and shifting focus from inflation control to growth revival.
In Q3FY25, volume growth remained a primary driver for the sector, however, price realisation has been under strain due to sluggish global demand, increased competition, particularly from China, and ongoing global uncertainties. In Q4FY25E, we anticipate that revenue growth for most companies will be driven primarily by higher volumes, with limited margin expansion owing to continued competitive pricing pressure.
