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Broker Research reports: Sector Updates
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In Q3FY25, volume growth remained a primary driver for the sector, however, price realisation has been under strain due to sluggish global demand, increased competition, particularly from China, and ongoing global uncertainties. In Q4FY25E, we anticipate that revenue growth for most companies will be driven primarily by higher volumes, with limited margin expansion owing to continued competitive pricing pressure.
In Q4FY25, India’s banking sector has witnessed a decline in credit growth led by slowdown in economic activities across sectors, slower pickup in government spending and regulatory caution on retail funding risks. As per the provisional reporting, Public sector banks (PSBs) drove credit expansion aggressively in Q4FY25, led by robust demand in retail, MSME, and a healthy corporate loan pipeline.
Positive Result Plays: Banks ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank NBFCs Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Negative Result Plays: CreditAccess Grameen, Equitas SFB
Our Preferred Picks in the Sector Infra-Road: H G Infra Engineering Ltd, J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd Infra-Others : KEC International, Kalpataru Projects International Ltd
Top picks are: We lean towards domestic-focused companies and prefer APL Apollo Tubes and Coal India as Top Picks. We also like Hindalco, but recommend a Buy on Dips' approach amidst the volatile macro environment due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs.
The life insurance sector is poised to deliver a strong performance in Q4FY25E, supported by a seasonal surge in new business volumes and steady growth in renewal premiums. However, margins are expected to remain broadly stable or may see slight compression due to product mix and pricing dynamics.
In the long term, we prefer TVS Motors and Hero Motocorp in 2Ws; M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also keep a close watch on Ashok Leyland and Eicher (VECV) in the CV space for potential volume growth
Auto industry sales in Q4FY25E exhibited a mixed trend. January recorded healthy traction, supported by beginning-of-year momentum and ongoing promotional schemes. However, demand gradually tapered in February and is expected to remain muted in March, with no major catalysts to drive retail acceleration.
In February 2025, the mutual fund industry's net AUM declined from INR 67.25 Tn to INR 64.53 Tn, despite reporting net inflows of INR 400.6 Bn during the month. The contraction was primarily due to valuation losses in equity-oriented funds, which offset the positive impact of inflows.
