CIE Automotive India Ltd. share price target

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

CIE Automotive (CIEINDIA)’s 2QCY26 EBITDA/PAT of INR4b/INR2.3b came in line. India revenue grew 12.4% YoY, underperforming the broader industry mainly due to restructuring of its 2W aluminum portfolio by exiting low-growth businesses, no growth in export revenue, and weak production for certain key OEMs in the quarter.

We continue to like CIE's diversified business across products, customers and geographies, which makes earnings less volatile in a tough global auto cycle. The Indian business is on a strong footing with a healthy order book and a growing customer base, while the European business has come out of restructuring with margins back at healthy levels. Near term concerns remain around aluminium cost pressures, weak exports and slow European demand. However, with margins improving and exports likely to pick up...

About the stock: CIE Automotive India (CIE), part of the Spain-based CIE CY25 consolidated revenue mix India 65%, Europe 35%. Forging is over 51% of consolidated sales (85% in Europe and 35% in India). Q1CY26 Results: Consolidated revenue for Q1CY26 came in at 2,612 crores, up 15% YoY. EBITDA for the quarter stood at 402 crores (up 20% YoY) with corresponding EBITDA margins at 15.4% (up 90 bps QoQ). CIE India sales were up 15% YoY at 1,619 crore and EBITDA margins at 17.6% (down 100 bps YoY wherein Q1CY25 included a one-time positive impact) due to material cost increase...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

CIEINDIA’s 1QCY26 EBITDA/PAT of INR4b/INR2.4b came in ahead of our estimates of INR3.7b/INR2.2b, led by better-than-expected performance, both in India and Europe.

Over the last few quarters, CIE had witnessed slower growth in its India business; however, this trend has reversed after GST rate cuts, which have boosted demand across all segments.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

About the stock: CIE Automotive India (CIE), part of the Spain-based CIE CY25 consolidated revenue mix India 65%, Europe 35%. Forging is over 51% of consolidated sales (85% in Europe and 35% in India). Q4CY25 Results: Consolidated revenue for Q4CY25 came in at 2,393 crores, up 13% YoY. EBITDA for the quarter stood at 348 crores (up 16% YoY) with corresponding EBITDA margins at 14.5% (down 50 bps QoQ). CIE India sales were up 12% YoY at 1,544 crore and EBITDA margins at 16.8% while European operations reported revenues of 782 crore (up 21% YoY; real growth 4% + forex...

CIEINDIA’s consolidated PAT at INR 2.1bn was in line with our estimates. However, while India’s business performance was ahead of our estimates, Europe's performance missed our estimates.

4QCY25 consol. revenue grew 13.4% YoY to INR23.9b, coming in slightly below our estimate of INR24.5b. Primary drivers of growth in the consol. business were the strong business evolution in India and a positive exchange rate impact in Europe.

CY24 consolidated revenue mix India 68%, Europe 32%. Forging is over 52% of consolidated sales (84% in Europe and 37% in India). Q3CY25 Results: CIE Automotive India reported healthy performance in Q3CY25. Consolidated revenue for Q3CY25 came in at 2,372 crores, up 11% YoY. EBITDA for the quarter stood at 356 crores with EBITDA margins at 15% (up 80 bps QoQ). CIE India sales were up 9% YoY at 1,523 crore and EBITDA margins at 17.3% (down 20 bps YoY) while European operations witnessed a revenue of 787 crore...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

CIE Automotive’s (CAIL) Q2CY25 consolidated revenue at INR 24bn was ~3% higher vs ISec estimate, and EBITDA margin at 14.2% was ~30bps lower than ISec estimate. India revenue was up 7% YoY at ~INR 15bn, vs industry growth of 5% YoY.

We believe CIE's technological strengths will continue to support its valuation, similar to its listed MNC peers in the sector. However, due to weaker demand in Europe and the U.S., along with a slower-than-expected EV ramp-up, we are revising our PAT guidance downward, maintaining a cautious stance on margin estimates for near term. We expect the geopolitical shift in the supply chain realignment to benefit the domestic market in the long run, which is expected to factor in the price and the valuation looks reasonable at the given margin. CIE has...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

CIEINDIA’s 1QCY25 EBITDA/PAT of INR3.4b/INR2.1b came in ahead of our estimates of INR3.2b/INR1.9b. While Europe demand remained weak and was down 19% YoY, it was still better than our estimate.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

CIE Automotive’s (CAIL) Q4CY24 consolidated PAT of INR 1.8bn was lower than consensus estimate of INR 1.9bn, with ~4% miss in revenue and ~100bps miss in EBITDA margin.