175.65 3.30 (1.91%)
NSEOct 21, 2020 10:29 AM
The 25 reports from 8 analysts offering long term price targets for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. have an average target of 280.25. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 59.55% from the last price of 175.65.
|Summary||Date||Stock||Broker||Price at Reco.||Target||Price at reco|
Change since reco(%)
|2019-11-08||Hindustan Petroleum ..||Nirmal Bang Institutional||293.95||245.00||293.95 (-40.24%)||Target met||Sell|
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation - 2QFY20 Result Update- Maintain Sell on weak results and recent rally
Nirmal Bang Institutional
HPCL results are below expectations due to GRMs coming lower at US$2.83/bbl vs NBIE estimate of US$5.77 and lower refinery throughput at 4.56mn tonne. Refining EBITDA halved to Rs1.14bn YoY. Marketing EBITDA was up 19% at Rs25.3bn. We have cut FY20E EPS by 24% and tweaked FY2122E based on the 1HFY20 trend. We are marginally changing our TP to Rs245 based on 6.4xPE on Sep21E. We maintain Sell with 21% downside from CMP,...
|2019-11-08||Hindustan Petroleum ..||Emkay||293.95||310.00||293.95 (-40.24%)||Target met||Buy|
Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) reported standalone EBITDA/PAT of Rs24.4bn/Rs10.5bn in Q2FY20, missing our estimates of Rs33.3bn/Rs19.8bn due to lower GRMs, higher other expenditure/interest and lower other income. It continued with the old tax regime. Reported and core GRMs stood at USD2.83/USD2.55 per bbl, below our USD5.5-6 expectation, but a trend similar to IOCL. Marketing margins improved 16% qoq to Rs5.7/kg, a 4% beat and better than peers. Total sales volumes grew 3% yoy. though HPCL's capex run-rate is high even as some amount of subsidy payments are pending. Core EPS in Q2FY20 was Rs7.4/share vs. our estimate of Rs12.2/share....
|2019-11-07||Hindustan Petroleum ..||Prabhudas Lilladhar||310.45||354.00||310.45 (-43.42%)||101.54||Buy|
IMO2020 rules to support marketing and refining margins going forward. We lower our earnings for FY20/21 to factor in lower refining margins. During Q2, core performance for HPCL was hit by lower than expected refining profits. However, benign crude prices and recovery in refining margins is positive for the OMCs and we expect recovery in H2FY20. OMCs are also likely to benefit from implementation of IMO2020 effective January given...
|2019-11-06||Hindustan Petroleum ..||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||313.95||400.00||313.95 (-44.05%)||127.73||Buy|
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.
TCIEXP: In line quarter; downgrade to ADD on limited upside. TECHM: Enterprise business stage surprising growth. DIVI: Good Q2 beat; FY20 margin guidance cut is negative. GUJGA: Margins decline, robust volumes
|2019-08-09||Hindustan Petroleum ..||HDFC Securities||247.10||381.00||247.10 (-28.92%)||Buy|
HPCL is doubling its existing capacity at its Visakh refinery from 8.3mmtpa to 15mmtpa by FY21E (outlay Rs. 210bn) and increasing it from the current 7.5mmtpa to 9.5mmtpa (outlay Rs 50bn) at its Mumbai refinery. This will drive the earnings for its refinery business. We remain constructive on HPCL in a falling crude price scenario as it will reduce Govt's intervention in auto fuel pricing, reduce working capital and put subsidy burden overhang to rest. Our SOTP target is Rs 381 (6x Jun 21E EV/e for standalone refining and pipeline, 7x EV/e for marketing and Rs 54/sh from other investments). Maintain BUY. Despite an underwhelming Q1, we maintain BUY on HPCL given (1) 55% refinery capacity addition to 24.5mmt by FY21E, and (2) Restoration to normative marketing margins post elections that will benefit HPCL the most of all OMCs as this business contributes ~60% to EBITDA.
|2019-08-09||Hindustan Petroleum ..||Nirmal Bang Institutional||247.10||195.00||247.10 (-28.92%)||Target met||Sell|
Nirmal Bang Institutional
Slashing EPS and TP on steep 52.8% YoY fall in 1QFY20 earnings We maintain Sell post our 23.6% and 23.3% cut in FY20-21 EPS and 6.4% reduction in TP to Rs 195/sh based on FY21E PE of 5.39x (10% premium to SD -1 on 5 year Median PE). We expect HPCL's core business to remain weak due to pressure on GRMs and likely increase in competition in the profitable fuel retailing segment from private sector companies. In addition valuations would also be hampered by HPCL management's refusal to accept ONGC as promoter. Maintain Sell with 20% downside from CMP to our TP Rs195/sh. Reported standalone PAT of Rs8bn is 20% below street estimates: This is higher vs. NBIE...
|2019-08-09||Hindustan Petroleum ..||ICICI Securities Limited||247.10||265.00||247.10 (-28.92%)||Target met||Hold|
ICICI Securities Limited
The correction in oil prices led to super-normal marketing margins for OMCs in Q4FY19, which led to lower margins QoQ. However, on an absolute basis, the marketing segment reported a stable performance in Q1FY20. We expect similar profitability from this segment in coming quarters. In terms of marketing sales, HPCL increased 1.9% QoQ to 9.8 MMT, below our estimates on account of lower-than-expected LPG and diesel sales. Going forward, we expect marketing sales volumes to grow at a rate of 4-5%. The crude throughput in Q1FY20 was lower 13.3% YoY at 3.9 MMT, in line with...
|2019-08-09||Hindustan Petroleum ..||IDBI Capital||247.10||288.00||247.10 (-28.92%)||Target met||Buy|
HPCL's Q1FY20 result came below our forecast mainly driven by higher inventory loss. Revenue was up 5% YoY to Rs709bn while EBITDA/PAT was down 48.5%/52.8% YoY to Rs16.4/8.1bn. Reported GRM stood at US$0.8/bbl as against US$7.2/bbl in Q1FY19 whereas core GRM stood in-line to our forecast at US$3.3/bbl. The company reported inventory loss of Rs5.4bn, adjusting to which the numbers are largely in-line to our forecast. We have cut our EBITDA forecast for FY20E by 10% to factor in high inventory loss and kept the same for FY21E. We continue to maintain our TP of Rs288 based on 5.5x on EV/EBITDA (Rs273/share) and 20% discount to its investment in MRPL and...
|2019-08-08||Hindustan Petroleum ..||BOB Capital Markets Ltd.||250.40||200.00||250.40 (-29.85%)||Target met||Sell|
|2019-07-18||Hindustan Petroleum ..||Motilal Oswal||291.20||335.00||291.20 (-39.68%)||Neutral|
Company expects to achieve stabilization of refinery in a span of 9- 12months, while we believe it could take longer. The incremental 2mmtpa from the Mumbai refinery expansion is expected to reflect in the companys volumes from mid-FY21. Already ~80% of the orders (out of the total capex at ~INR290b) are in place for both the Vizag and Mumbai refineries. The Rajasthan refinery is expected to have a total capex of ~INR440b, including the companys equity commitment of ~INR110b. Expected capex to be spent of the total INR110b, ~10%/20% in FY20/21. Also, polypropylene expansion at Bhatinda is expected to get completed in the next 2-3 years (currently expansion is ~30% complete), with a total capex of INR160b. The company expects cost reduction and recovery of certain unrecoverable items to result in marketing margin expansion. HPCL has planned shutdown at the Vizag and Mumbai refineries in 3Q-4QFY20 for a period of 45 days, to align petrol/diesel quality to BS-VI.