Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. share price target and research reports

Latest analyst research reports with target prices and PDF download for MCX, BSE:534091 Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

15 Oct 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Sporadic increase in volumes drives strong performance

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

Motilal Oswal

However, base metal volumes declined sharply due to (1) the SEBI's directive to allow trading of only one contract per commodity and (2) the switch from cash We expect volume/revenue/earnings CAGR (FY19-21) of 22%/24%/28%. Over the past few months, sentiment around MCX reversed from that of competition concerns to one of optimism largely driven by growth in bullion volumes. This is a reflection of the winner-takes-all nature of the business MCXs golden run in terms of volumes came at the time of significant run-up in gold and silver prices in FY12 and FY13. Over the last few months, sentiment around MCX has reversed from concerns around competition from the likes of BSE, to one of optimism, driven by multiple factors feeding into volumes growth. Its monopolistic market share has remained intact, and MCX has now ruled out the possibility of a price cut, which was earlier on the anvil.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. is trading above its 200 day SMA of 6325.9

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

05 Sep 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Clarifies on whistleblower allegations

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

Motilal Oswal

5 September 2019 Those two international customers have been participating for some time now, and from November18 to June19, they bought the commodity and sold the same commodity. There is no remiss here and there is an opportunity to retest the quality. MCX retested and quality met the standards specified in the contract; the delivery too has been lifted. People tend to keep the stock on the delivery platform in order to be able to trade again. MCX entered into an agreement with a UK-based firm in July/August 2018 for gold and energy spot exchange platform development. Further enhancements will be taken care of by the internal tech team. Also, allegation of Chairman and Mr Paranjape travelling together to Europe is a figment of imagination. Three vaults where deliveries are given are in Ahmedabad. MCX had ~INR5b of insurance cover in two vaults and another INR10b in the third.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. has gained 45.28% in the last 3 Months

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

18 Jul 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Multi Commodity Exchange (1QFY20): Growing steadily. Maintain BUY

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

HDFC Securities

Regulatory tailwinds like Institutional participation, Indices and tie-up with Retail bank subsidiaries will boost trading volumes by ~10% and increase depth in the long run. Globally Institutional clients account for ~50% of the total derivatives volumes. We continue to remain constructive on the long-term growth opportunities, concerns on increase in competition and pricing pressure is gradually subsiding. The market is expanding with entry of new market participants and products. We estimate revenue/PAT CAGR of 18/15% over FY19-21E. We see value in MCX based on (1) Embedded non-linearity, (2) ADTV growth despite rising competition, (3) Market leadership and (4) Net cash of Rs 13bn (~30% of Mcap). Risks include regulatory delays and increase in competition. We maintain BUY on MCX based on in-line 1QFY20. The company has maintained market share despite increasing competition. Embedded non-linearity and cost control is leading to margin expansion. Regulatory tailwinds will boost volumes further. We assign 30x to core FY21E PAT and add net cash to arrive at SoTP of Rs 962 (13% upside).

Multi Commodity Exch.. has an average target of 5662.67 from 3 brokers.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

26 Apr 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Multi Commodity Exchange (4QFY19): Growth on track. Maintain BUY

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

HDFC Securities

MCX volumes can increase with regulatory tailwinds like institutional participation (MFs, PMS), launch of Indices, and partnership with retail bank subsidiaries. These can boost volumes by another 10%. The concern related to increase in competition and pricing pressure is subsiding. We don't see risk to existing volume and pricing. In fact, the market can expand with launch of innovative products and entry of new market participants. We estimate revenue/PAT CAGR of 18/14% over FY19-21E. We see value in MCX based on (1) Embedded non-linearity, (2) ADTV growth despite rising competition, (3) Market leadership and (4) Net cash of Rs 13bn (~30% of Mcap). Risks include regulatory delays and increased competition. We maintain BUY on MCX on in-line 4QFY19. The company has increased market share despite increasing competition. Cost control was impressive, led to margin expansion. We assign 30x to core FY21E PAT and add net cash to arrive at SoTP of Rs 950 (19% upside).

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. has gained 45.28% in the last 3 Months

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

26 Apr 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Operationally in line, PAT beat on one-time tax reversal

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

Motilal Oswal

26 April 2019 Income from operations increased 2.9% QoQ to INR791m (226bp beat to our estimate of INR774m). EBIT grew 24% QoQ to INR211m, with the margin at 26.6% (47bp beat). PAT increased 45% QoQ to INR610m (PAT margin of 55%), significantly ahead of our estimate of INR348m, mainly due to the recognition of a minimum alternate tax (MAT) credit of INR206m for the year. EPS for the quarter was INR12.0 v/s our estimate of INR6.8. Income from operations increased 16% to INR3,000m from INR2,580m in the previous year. EBIT increased 45% YoY to INR1,925.2m, with the margin at 26.5%. Net profit increased 34% YoY to INR1,446m from INR1,081m in FY18. EPS rose 34% YoY to INR28.4.

Multi Commodity Exch.. has an average target of 5662.67 from 3 brokers.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

16 Jan 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Multi Commodity Exchange (3QFY19): Steady improvement in volumes. Maintain BUY

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

HDFC Securities

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 957, implying a P/E of 30x to Dec-20E core earnings and adding back net cash. MCX delivered good set of numbers in 3QFY19. Revenue was up 8.2% QoQ to Rs 0.77bn (in-line with our est. of Rs 0.77bn), led by 7.9% QoQ increase in volume (Rs 17.03tn). MCX maintained its market share at 91% and ADTV grew 7.9% QoQ, despite increased competition from NSE & BSE. EBITDA margin was down 496bps QoQ to 27.2% largely due to higher other expenses. Excluding one-off margin was up 89bps QoQ to 33.1% but still below our estimate of 34.9%. Hedging activity in bullions is witnessing increased traction with open interest built up while metals volume is impacted due to shift from cash to physical settlement.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. is trading below its 30 day SMA of 8309.7

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

15 Jan 2019

8235.00

-0.30%

Steady pick-up in volumes continues

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

Motilal Oswal

15 January 2019 Revenue grew 26% YoY to INR769m, in line with our estimate of INR766m. Futures volumes grew 34% YoY (+8% QoQ) to INR17t, dominated by crude (+78% YoY) and gold (+53% YoY). EBITDA margin of 27.2% (+500bp YoY, -500bp QoQ) was below our estimate of 34% due to higher other expenses (INR45m one-off). Excluding this one- time expense, the margin stood at 33.1% (90bp lower than our estimate). PAT growth of 124% YoY (to INR420m) exceeded our estimate of 68.5% YoY owing to higher other income (INR322m v/s our estimate of INR199m) and a lower tax rate (15.3% v/s our estimate of 24%), which emanated from some provisions and deferred tax. For 9MFY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT were up 17.9%/47%/42% YoY. MCX highlighted that the uptick in volumes in recent past has not just been a function of volatility but also increasing participation. We expect volumes/revenue/earnings CAGR (FY18-21) of 20%/16%/22%.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. has gained 115.34% in the last 1 Year

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

24 Oct 2018

8235.00

-0.30%

Multi Commodity Exchange (2QFY19): Slow and steady improvement. Maintain BUY

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

HDFC Securities

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 980 implying a P/E of 30x Sep-20E EPS. MCX delivered muted set of numbers in 2QFY19, revenue was down 2.4% QoQ to Rs 711mn (vs our est. of Rs 734mn), led by 0.3% QoQ drop in volume (Rs 15.8 TN) and Rs 16.7mn impact from Liquidity Enhancement Scheme (LES). ADTV was up 1.2% QoQ and 12.2% YoY to Rs 246.55 bn led by Metals (+3.5%). Trading volume has picked-up in Sep-18, ADTV is at Rs 273.78bn (+22% YoY) led by Metals and Energy.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. has gained 45.28% in the last 3 Months

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

23 Oct 2018

8235.00

-0.30%

Gold and Crude ensuring volume growth

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

Motilal Oswal

23 October 2018 Revenue increased 5.7% YoY to INR711m (2% below our estimate of INR726m) in 2QFY19. Lower-than-estimated revenues in the case of MCX are explained by either realization (mix of high- and low-volume orders) or by contribution of non-transaction revenues. EBITDA margin of 32.2% missed our estimate of 38%, led by [1] lower revenues and [2] higher Software expenses (INR145m v/s estimate of INR115m). PAT increased 23.3% YoY to INR359m (7.6% beat) owing to a lower tax rate (13% v/s 25%), which emanated from some excess provisions written back and deferred tax. MCX is expected to start monetizing Options in FY20, and there will be no transaction charges in 2HFY19 either. We expect volumes/revenue/earnings CAGR (FY18-20) of 19%/13%/16%. In our view, this merits caution not only from the perspective of potential loss of market share, but also in terms of any unexpected cut in pricing in the near future.

Number of FII/FPI investors decreased from 364 to 324 in Mar 2025 qtr

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

23 Jul 2018

8235.00

-0.30%

Multi Commodity Exchange (1QFY19): Recovery on track. Maintain BUY

Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange o...

Target

HDFC Securities

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 1,050 implying a P/E of 30x FY20E EPS. MCX delivered decent set of numbers in 1QFY19, revenue was up 3.2% QoQ to Rs 729mn (vs our est. of Rs 742mn), led by 5.5% QoQ rise in volume (Rs 15.8 TN) offset by 2.2% drop in realisations. ADTV was up 2.2% QoQ and 29.8% YoY to Rs 243.60 bn led by rise in Bullion (+5.7% QoQ) and Metals (+9.0%). Bullion volume has started to recover and current ADTV is only at 56% of the pre-demonitisation level, thus scope for catch-up is immense. Options volume jumped significantly (~12x) after introduction of LES in April-18 (ADTV of Rs 5.46bn vs Rs 0.46 in 3Q).

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. is trading above its 200 day SMA of 6325.9

Is Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. worth buying?

309 Votes:

Buy 81.55%

Sell 11.33%

Hold 7.12%

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