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We cut FY26/FY27EPS by 3.1/3% factoring in 80/50bps cut in margins to 22.7/23.3% in FY26/27 as HUVR transitions through the inflationary phase and invests in Innovation, new products, A&P, distribution channel etc. to push for growth as it expects demand recovery to set in. HUL continues to focus on transforming its portfolio contribution from Core to Future Core & Market Mover. HUVR is making a big push in premium segments in Beauty and wellbeing to regain lost ground by acquisitions and new launches, which should start showing impact by end of 1H26. HFD turnaround seems tough given...
We retain REDUCE on Nestlé India and Mar-26E TP of Rs2,300, on 60x P/E. We see demand stress persisting in a major part of the portfolio, with demand for milk products continuing to see impact of healthy price hikes (amid inflation) and competitive pressure in prepared dishes.
Nestle’s Q4FY25 operational performance was subdued with revenue growth of 4% YoY on a high base of 9% and ~100 bps margin contraction primarily due to inflationary pressures in key raw materials such as coffee, edible oil and palm oil.
HUL’s Q4 was broadly in line with the Street’s expectations, with volumes growing 2% y/y (vs. 0-2% estimated) and the EBITDA margin at 22.8% (vs. 23%).
Nestle India (Nestle) reported a 4.5% YoY growth in total revenue in 4QFY25, in line with our estimate. Domestic sales grew only 4.2% YoY (vs. 9% growth in the previous eight quarters) given the macroeconomic headwinds.