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Strategic Expansion and High-Margin Export Dominance

Controlled leverage with improving return ratios insight: JSL has consistently maintained a healthy balance sheet, with Net Debt to EBITDA below 1x, despite executing a significant capex of ~5,400 crore. With the commissioning of new capacities, it is expected to generate annual CFO >4,000 crore, enabling debt reduction in the coming years. Consequently,...

Regulatory Impact Update Note

Tata Steel (TATA) is aggressively expanding its capacity in India to capitalize on rising domestic demand, targeting an increase from 26.5mtpa in FY25 to 40mtpa by FY30.

Jindal Stainless’ (JDSL) revenue for 2QFY26 came in line with our estimates at INR109b, up 11% YoY and 7% QoQ. The growth was primarily led by healthy sales volume of 648KT, which recorded 15% YoY and 4% QoQ growth in 2QFY26.

Shyam Metalics & Energy’s (SMEL) Q2FY26 EBITDA of INR 5.4bn was 6%/4% below our/consensus’ estimates. EBITDA surged 32.7% YoY, largely driven by strong growth in steel/semi sales volumes of 12%/44% to 544Kte/370Kte.

Jindal Stainless (JSL)’s Q2FY26 EBITDA was 5% better than our estimates at INR 13.9bn (+17%/+6% YoY/QoQ) driven by better sales volumes.

The largest fully integrated value-added ferrochrome producer in India, IMFA is raising production capacity ~35%, from ~284,000 tonnes to ~384,000 with a greenfield ferrochrome plant at Kalinganagar expected by mid CY26.

Jindal Steel (JINDALST)’s revenue for 2QFY26 stood at INR117b (+4% YoY vs. our estimate of INR107b), declining 5% QoQ due to muted realization.

Having commenced operations at its 3m tonne steel melting shop (SMS), Jindal Steel is on track to expand it by a further 3m tonnes, taking total installed capacity to 15.6m.

Revenue stood at INR102b (+8% YoY and flat QoQ), in line with our estimate. The sales volume came in line with our est. at 626KT (+8% YoY and -3% QoQ).

Jindal Steel (JINDALST) has successfully commissioned a new 3mtpa of crude steel capacity at its Angul plant, expanding the plant’s total steelmaking capacity to 9mtpa.

Consolidated EBITDA grew 30.9% YoY to Rs. 7,115cr, with EBITDA margin expanding 210bps to 15.8%, on the back of a favourable product mix and reduced operating costs due to improved operational efficiencies. Profit after tax increased more than fourfold to Rs. 1,646cr, aided by topline growth and an 64% YoY increase in other operating income. JSW Steel reported a strong performance in the quarter despite global uncertainties and a prolonged monsoon. The company is optimistic about a strong performance in the second half of this financial year, driven by rising steel prices and production. JSW has ramped up its production capacity, which is expected to support growth. The outlook for India's steel consumption remains robust, driven by supportive...

Tata Steel’s Q4FY25 performance met our and consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA at INR 65.6bn (up 11% QoQ) was in line with our estimates, standalone EBITDA/te was up INR 1,000 QoQ.

About the stock: Jindal Steel (JSL) is one of India's leading steel producers, having Higher volumes and domestic steel price stability to support profitability: In Q2FY26, JSL's EBITDA/ton fell to ~11k (vs 15.8k in Q1FY26), mainly due to higher operating costs of ~250 crore from planned maintenance and metallic purchases. While domestic steel prices are currently down 23% QoQ, management expects an improvement in NovDec'25. With higher volumes and potential price recovery, margins are likely to sustain, with EBITDA/ton projected at 12.9k/14k for...

Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) has initiated a comprehensive capex plan for its Angul facility to expand its crude steel capacity by 65% to 15.9mtpa and finished steel capacity by 83% to 13.75mtpa.

Jindal Steel is increasing crude steel capacity from 9.6m tonnes to 15.6m and finished steel capacity from 7.25m to 13.75m by FY27-28, making it the fourth largest steel manufacturer in India.

JSW Steel`s consolidated EBITDA beat BB consensus estimate by 5% as the overall performance in the standalone as well as the subsidiary level witnessed sharp improvement.