Sell

TCI Express (TCIE)’s Q1FY26 results were in line with our muted expectations. The company’s efforts to diversify business beyond surface express seem to be fructifying, as international air express/C2C segments registered 33%/14% YoY growth, respectively.

Mahindra Logistics Limited’s (MLL) Q2FY25 EBITDA performance undershot our/consensus estimates by 6.2%/23.6%. Key points: 1) Network services, which is ~18% of overall business, grew 46.1% YoY while 3PL grew by 6.8%. 2) Gross margins
improved for network services.

MLL's performance, QoQ, has improved. Overall, EBITDA of INR 663mn (down 0.5% YoY) was 19.7%/1.7% above our/Street’s estimates.

BDE reported a strong quarter as consolidated sales grew 9% YoY and EBITDA
margins expanded 70bps YoY, on the back of higher utilization of new aircrafts
and general price increase undertaken in Q4

Container Corporation of India’s (CONCOR) Q1FY24 EBITDA missed our and consensus estimates by 12.7% and 15.6% respectively. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin contracted to 20.4% and EBITDA/teu was down to INR 3,580 (lowest since Q1FY22) on escalation of provision for land license fee (LLF) and lower realisation; 2) originating volumes declined 5.4% YoY to ~571kteu due to subdued demand, weather-related disruptions in north and west of India.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY24 EBITDA fell short of our estimate by 10%. Key points: 1) number of shipments rose ~9% and tonnage 2.6% YoY; 2) both revenue and EBITDA per shipment continue to decline; 3) EBITDA margin contracted to 15.4% (Q1FY23: 20.7%) – lowest since Q1FY20 – on unfavourable price-cost impact despite the benefit of lower ATF prices.

Container Corporation of India’s (CONCOR) Q4FY23 performance missed consensus estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin declined further sequentially to 20.5% in Q4FY23 (vs 21.4% in Q3FY23); 2) EBITDA/teu rose slightly owing to better profitability of the domestic segment

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q4FY23 performance undershot street estimates by 6%; however, it was broadly in line with our estimates. Key points: 1) Number of shipments rose ~12% YoY to 82mn, possibly due to higher share of road cargoes; 2) realisation/kg remained static QoQ, implying insufficient absorption of price hikes taken in Jan-23.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q3FY23 performance undershot our and street estimates by 13% and 14%, respectively, owing to higher costs. Key points: 1) Number of shipments rose ~18% YoY to 87.9mn, possibly due to higher share of road cargoes; 2) higher costs resulted in gross margin/kg contracting 25% YoY (0.6% QoQ) to Rs13.2/kg.

Container Corporation of India’s (Concor) performance missed consensus estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA/teu declined due to higher proportion of domestic business; 2) EBITDA margin was down 390bps QoQ to 21.4%; 3) rail freight expenses were higher due to removal of certain discounts by Indian Railways.

Container Corporation of India’s (Concor) Q2FY23 performance missed
consensus estimates. Key takeaways: 1) EBITDA/teu declined due to higher
proportion of domestic business.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q2FY23 performance was a slight miss on consensus estimates owing to higher costs.

Delhivery reported adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs2.17bn for Q1FY23, departing from the positive trend under the same parameter over the past two quarters.

Container Corporation of India (Concor) maintained its Q1FY23 volume guidance despite a weak EXIM print. Origination was 64% of EXIM and 47% of domestic volumes (stable).

SJET's Q4FY21 revenue plunged 35% YoY and it reported an adjusted net loss of Rs 2.4bn, translating to negative EPS of Rs 3.9

Monthly Chartbook: India's recovery gaining ground. Weekly Wrap: India's fiscal impulse drive yields higher. VRLL: Earnings momentum gathering pace

Monetary Policy Review: Rates on hold, focus on liquidity. CCRI: Earnings in line; LLF remains a key monitorable. MM: Healthy Q3, valuations expensive maintain SELL. HMCL: Optimism priced in maintain SELL. ALKEM: Q3 in line; strong free cash to support rerating

Container Corp's (CCRI) Q3FY21 revenue was a beat but EBITDA met our estimates.

INDIGO: Rising fuel costs to burn earnings; cut to SELL. CBK: Earnings beat but asset quality risks persist. RBK: Weak asset quality; elevated provisions maintain SELL. MSIL: Operational performance along expected lines; maintain SELL

InterGlobe Aviation's (IndiGo) Q3FY21 RASK stood at Rs 3.2.