Sell

Key highlights from MIDHANI’s concall, Q1FY25 performance was impacted by inventory adjustments, annual maintenance shutdown for certain equipments.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) has reported robust Q1FY25 performance. EBITDA margin increased to highest level of 27.2% (16.9% in Q4FY24) aided by lower provisions and deliveries of ships.

We attended the Q1FY25 concall of Garden Reach Shipbuilders (GRSE). Orderbook at end-Q1FY25 was INR 252.3bn, four major contracts worth INR 15-16bn.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders’ (GRSE) Q1FY24 performance was boosted by P-17A frigates project entering the peak revenue booking phase. Key points: 1) revenue was up 30.4% YoY while EBITDA rose 37.6% YoY; 2) orderbook as at Jun’23-end was at INR 245.5bn, implying orderbook/revenue at 8.96x; 3) an order worth INR 2.5bn for Naval guns from Indian Navy was received; and 4) company subcontracted part of its orderbook to L&T for speedy execution.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL) has reported Q1FY24 EBITDA of INR 1.7bn (down 1.1% YoY and 18.5% QoQ). Key points: 1) Execution in Q1FY24 comprised mainly of P15B destroyers and P17A stealth frigates; 2) EBITDA margin has improved marginally to 7.9% (vs 7.8% in Q1FY23); and 3) orderbook as of Jun’23 end was marginally up QoQ at INR 39.1bn as the company received one MRLC order of INS Shankush at INR 27.3bn.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders’ (MDL) Q4FY23 performance was 50% ahead of our estimates mainly on higher-than-expected revenue. Key points: 1) Revenue grew 49% YoY (14.5% QoQ) to Rs20.8bn mainly led by the commissioning of 5th submarine (under P75 programme).

We attended the analyst concall organised by Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) to discuss the company’s Q4FY23 performance and outlook on the future.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) Q4FY23 EBITDA performance was below street estimates by ~50.5%. Key highlights: 1) revenues rose 10.7% YoY largely on the back of delivery of two ships (cargo-cum-ferry vessel for the government of Guyana and fast patrol vessel {FPV} for Indian Coast Guard), and P-17A advanced frigates entering their peak billing phase.

We attended the analyst meet organised by Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) to discuss its Q3FY23 performance and outlook. Key highlights: 1) Management sees benefits from the ongoing fleet expansion drive in defence; 2) EBITDA margin during the quarter was lower due to all the recent orders coming via competitive bidding.

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) Q3FY23 performance was a mixed bag. Key highlights: 1) revenues grew 44% YoY largely on the back of P- 17A advanced frigates, which have entered their peak revenue generation phase; 2) EBITDA was down 10% YoY at Rs469mn due to higher ‘other expenses’; 3) ‘other income’ rose 14.6% YoY to Rs.502mn mainly due to higher advances.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders’ (MDL) Q3FY23 performance was 70% ahead of estimates mainly due to the delivery of 5th Scorpene class submarine ‘Vagir’ to the India Navy ahead of time (on Dec 20, ’22). Key points: 1) Revenue grew 17% YoY (7% QoQ) to Rs18.2bn on residual revenue recognition from delivery of submarine; 2) operating efficiencies and lower direct cost booked resulted in EBITDA margin rising to 16.3% (Q3FY22: 13%).

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) Q2FY23 performance missed consensus estimates. Key highlights: 1) EBITDA was down 12% YoY at Rs483mn despite higher gross margin owing to sub-contracting expenses shooting up 52% YoY.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders’ (MDL) Q2FY23 performance was slightly lower than street estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin contracted to 6.9% (Q1FY23: 7.8%) due to higher cost and lower revenue booking.

Order backlog is at Rs1,559cr, which is 2.6x FY21 sales. Order inflow was at Rs916cr, showing signs of improvement. We believe that headwinds like order inflow & execution delays have seen some improvement. While order inflow visibility has shown improvement in recent times. Order intake guidance of Rs750cr for FY22E is encouraging. Going ahead with given order execution mix, we expect EBITDA margin remain in the range of 12-13% versus 20% (5yr avg.). However, likely hit on margin profile is expected to hurt the profitability and valuations in the long run....

Astra Microwave Products (Astra) Q4 earnings was below our expectation mainly on account of low order booking in the previous quarters and slow pace of execution in Q4. Revenue for Q4 came in at Rs. 1,132 Mn lower by 33% compared to Q4FY18 and PAT for the same period was down by 75% to Rs. 73 Mn.

Dismal Performance from Astra Micro: Astra Microwave Products (Astra Micro) revenue declined by 19% to Rs. 444 mn and posted net loss of Rs. 46 mn in Q2FY19. Revenue declined due to deferment of 2 orders in the defence segment that were facing technical difficulties in execution.