Upgrades

Our valuation for Indus now bakes in the VIL capex. Our recalibrated model envisions Indus’ rental revenue/EBITDA/ net profit CAGRs of 9.3%/10.2%/14.4% over FY24–27E.

Indus Towers’ (Indus) Q2FY24 performance was good on two counts: 1) tenancy addition accelerated with net add of 5,583 despite 840 exits; and 2) there was no large provisioning that had marred EBITDA previously. However, rising single-tenancy towers are continuously diluting margins and RoCE, and VIL has to significantly recover to increase visibility on rising tenancy sharing over medium term.

Indus Towers’ (Indus) Q1FY24 performance was good on two counts: 1) tenancy addition accelerated with a net add of 5,048 despite 518 exits; and 2) there was no provisioning that had marred EBITDA previously. We believe the high rate of tenancy addition is unlikely to sustain as Bharti is close to completing its rural 4G rollout; 5G rollout over the next 12 months will largely come as loading.

Tata Communications’ (TCom) Q1FY24 data and digital services revenue (organic) grew 14.2% and 28% YoY, respectively, which is significant acceleration vs consensus estimates. It believes the growth is likely to sustain, and remains committed to achieving INR 280bn revenue by FY27E in data services.

Tata Communications (TCom) has agreed to acquire Kaleyra, a US-based omni- channel integrated CPaaS player for enterprise value of US$250mn (0.73x CY22 sales). This is likely to enhance TCom’s global position in CPaaS services (which is growing at 25% CAGR as per Juniper), and with The Switch acquisition, TCom’s position in the US may become stronger.

Tata Communications (TCom) has shared an upbeat revenue growth outlook for FY23 27E in its investor meet (on June 7, ’23). The company expects its data revenue to grow by 2x to Rs280bn by FY27 at a revenue CAGR of 18%. This will be driven by >35% growth in its digital services revenue during the same period, and its mix will rise to >50%.