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Jagran indicated that there has been a temporary increase in newsprint prices in Q4FY21 but given the lower pagination and contracted inventory, the impact will be much lower than the price rise. However, as the business scales up some cost like employee and marketing expenses may see some...

We cut our EPS estimates by 22% for FY21E as schools for K1-K5 (contributes ~30% to sales) have still not opened in most states. While management sounded confident that an announcement is expected soon given CBSE/ICSE boards have come out with circulars directing schools to start the new academic year on schedule we choose to remain conservative. Nonetheless, given that the next academic year can just get delayed but may not result in complete loss of business (spill-over of revenues can happen...

Ad volume improves QoQ; circulation seeing slower recovery Print ad revenue has improved sequentially and was at 87% of pre-Covid level during the quarter. Festive period in October and November saw ad spend at 95% of corresponding period in previous year. While ad volume was down 8-10%, ad yield was also down due to discounts offered. The management stated tier 2 and 3 cities saw faster recovery and they expect faster recovery in auto, education and FMCG segment, going ahead. We estimate print+digital ad revenue of | 1434 crore in FY23E with nil CAGR in...

S Chand's operating performance (EBITDA loss of Rs363mn) was in-line with our estimate of Rs374mn in a non-seasonal quarter due to stringent cost control. Management indicated that schools will re-open from November onwards in a phased manner and has lined up aggressive expansion plans in the Ed-Tech space. For Mylestone, a digital offering of S Chand, the target is...

revenue (our estm: 31.9% QoQ) largely led by inorganic contribution from acquired Highwire business while organic business biz segments remained in flat to slightly negative growth range. OPM declined 360bps QoQ to 17.0% (our estm: 15.0%) due to decline in margins of all 3 biz segments where-in Platform business was impacted by lower EBITDA margin of acquired Highwire Biz (early double digit). MPS expects Highwire business to deliver improved profitability (40-45% EBITDA margins) by end of FY22 led by cost take-outs (IT, Rent, Other...

If National Curriculum Framework (NCF) is released by April-May 2021, full blown impact will percolate into financials from FY22E. We upgrade S Chand from ACCUMULATE to BUY by raising our target P/E multiple to 5.5x (3.5x earlier) as 1) maiden EBITDA profit of Rs19mn (PLe loss of Rs230mn) in a non-seasonal quarter indicates that cost rationalization program is on track (opex cost was down 26.3% YoY; a reduction of ~15-20% is envisaged in FY21E) 2) focus on working capital efficiency is clearly...

Print ad revenue was down 24.3% YoY on account of economic slowdown coupled with the lockdown in the last week of March. Circulation was also affected due to supply chain disturbance. It witnessed a decline of 9.6% YoY. The ad spend from corporates has further declined in the current quarter (Q1FY21E-TD) and is minimal at 20% of pre-Covid level. Circulation is slowly regaining lost readership and is currently at 80% of normal levels. We believe the ad scenario will remain challenging in the near term and will only grow slowly if economic sentiments improve. We expect print ad revenues...

revenue grew a meager 3% YoY (+11% QoQ) to INR6.1b (in-line), primarily due to weak print revenues. EBITDA at INR1.3b, witnessed a steep 19% YoY decline (9% miss, mainly due to miss on revenue) impacted by 15% YoY increase in RM cost. PAT at INR666m, down 22% YoY (+58% QoQ, 15% miss), was dragged by the EBITDA decline, partly offset by higher other income. For 9MFY19, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 1%/-14%/-19% YoY. (1) FY20 ad growth should range between 7-8%, (2) FY20 circulation revenue should witness full impact of the cover price increase, and (3) Expect 10-11% decline in FY20 newsprint cost as benefits from 10- 20% drop in newsprint price will be partly offset by 3-4% increase in circulation copies. We largely maintain our estimates; expect consol.

Overall revenues came in at | 659.7 crore (up 10.2% YoY), much ahead of our estimates of | 639.8 crore, on account of superior print and radio ad revenues. Print ad revenues came in at | 420.8 crore, up 11.5% YoY ahead of our expectation of ~9.5%, with delta possibly contributed by festivities and elections led boost. The key surprise was on radio ad revenues front, which were at | 46.5 crore, up 38.4% YoY (vs. our expectation of 15% YoY growth). We await clarification on such growth. Print circulation revenues, however, were slightly...

24 January 2019 DBCL continued to see pain due to higher newsprint prices; though the pain was lower-than expected. revenue grew 10% YoY to INR6.6b (+13% QoQ, 2% beat) led by healthy 11%/3% YoY growth in print ad/circulation revenues and strong 39% YoY growth in radio revenue. This coupled with lower other operating cost helped EBITDA to remain flat YoY (+51% QoQ, 31% beat) at INR1.4b, even as newsprint cost spiraled 34% YoY. (1) Healthy 11% ad growth in 3QFY19 was driven by 2% election related advertisement while rest was due to a favorable festive season.(2) In FY20, ad growth should be better due to high contribution from election ads as well as due to the government rate hike. (3) Against the peak of USD750/ton, newsprint prices are down to USD560-565/ton and are likely to decline further due to capacity addition globally in Russia and China; we expect 23-24% fall in prices but the benefit will be seen from 1QFY20.