Downgrades

Vedanta (VEDL), with its bid amount of ~INR 170bn (staggered over 5 years), has reportedly (Link) emerged as the highest bidder for acquiring the assets of Jaiprakash Associate (JAL).

*over or under performance to benchmark index Vedanta's financial performance was moderate in Q1FY26, characterised by commodity price volatility and changing global trade dynamics. Despite the macro headwinds, domestic demand was strong, helping support market premiums. Margins were strong across key businesses, driven by operational excellence and cost discipline. The company's commitment to deleveraging and improving its capital efficiency, along with a robust business model, strong governance framework and transparent disclosures,...

Novelis’ (Hindalco’s 100% subsidiary) Q1FY26 (adj.) EBITDA of USD 416mn (and ~USD 432/te) has missed consensus estimates (~USD 445–450/te), mainly on account of negative tariff impact of USD 28mn; and change in product mix.

Novelis refrained from giving near term guidance amid uncertain tariff situation and elevated scrap pricing; although scrap availability has improved. Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Q4FY25 delivered strong cons operating performance on strong India aluminium business and Novelis. Strong LME, higher alumina prices and lower operating cost aided Indian upstream aluminium business while superior product mix benefitted downstream as volumes were stable. Mgmt. guided flattish costs for Q1 and expect...

India aluminum consumption is expected to double to 11.37mt, while copper consumption is likely to grow 2.5x to 2.54mt over the next decade. Hindalco Industries (HNDL), at its annual investors' day, outlined its long-term strategy for both India business and Novelis. Out of already announced USD5bn India capex, HNDL is investing ~USD2bn and USD1.6bn in upstream businesses of aluminum and copper, respectively, while the rest would be spent on various downstream projects and coal mining. With captive coal mines...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q3FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA
rose 30% YoY to INR 76bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division. HNDL secured 12mtpa Meenakshi coal mine, providing a significant boost to coal security.

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

We maintain our BUY rating.

Novelis has indicated that its Q3FY25 EBITDA could range at USD360-370mn (-21% QoQ; -14% vs Emkay). Q3 shipments are expected to range at 900-910kt – slightly lower than our estimate of 913kt, and 945kt shipments in Q2

We downgrade Hindalco to SELL from Reduce following a disappointing outlook from Novelis. We had recently initiated coverage on Hindalco indicating that the stock is pricing in all the positives and a part of that optimism was around Novelis in the lead up to its IPO, which was later called off.

We maintain our BUY rating.

National Aluminium Company’s (NALCO) EBITDA was significantly lower than our/consensus estimates. We estimate Alumina sales to be down 56% YoY while Aluminium sales to be down 11% YoY.

Consolidated net sales stood at INR570b (+8 YoY/+2% QoQ), largely in line with our estimate of INR583b, aided by better realizations and efficiency in India operations.

We downgrade to HOLD from BUY.

Vedanta (VEDL) posted consol. net sales of INR358b (+6% YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our estimate. The growth was driven by favorable market prices.