Downgrades

CRIN reported a better than expected operating performance, despite rising input costs, due to backward integration and steps taken to lower the cost of raw material (particularly rock phosphate), while maintaining the same level of quality. It did so by establishing an alternative sourcing destination and with better efficiency. Raw material prices and volume growth in fertilizers remain a key monitorable going forward. Factoring in its 3Q performance, we have raised our FY22E earnings by 7%, but have maintained our FY23E/FY24E estimate. We value CRIN at...

CRIN introduced 6 new products during H1FY22 and management expects to launch more products during rabi season. Management is expecting good traction in rabi season considering healthy reservoir levels and soil moisture conditions . We have positive outlook on CRIN, however we expect contraction in profitability due to the higher raw material costs and CRIN's limitation to pass the increased cost to customers. We maintain ACCUMULATE rating with revised target price of Rs.830 based on 15x FY23E adj. EPS....

Revenue grew by 14% YoY to Rs.3,664cr in Q1FY22 driven by growth in both fertilizer and crop protection chemicals (CPC). Fertilizer segment revenue grew 9% while CPC segment grew at a staggering 50% YoY. Backward integration and inventory savings benefitted nutrient segment while higher exports and B2B deals helped consumer product segment. Company launched six new products in CPC segment during the quarter. All of them are combination molecules. Four of them are insecticides while each of the remaining two are herbicide and fungicide....

Overall Fertilizer industry volumes grew 8% YoY in FY21 on the back of 19% volume growth in MOP; NPKS and SSP volumes grew 17% each for FY21. Urea, which accounted for 53% of the Fertilizer industry's volumes, was up by 5% YoY in FY21 (refer to Exhibit 1). CRIN's overall fertilizer volumes grew 11% YoY in FY21 on the back of 35%/20%/16% volume growth in urea/MOP/SSP. NPKS volumes were up 8%, while DAP volumes came in flat. CRIN leads the market in the NPKS Fertilizer segment and commands market...

Coromandel International (CRIN) reported a decent EBITDA performance (on a high base of last year) on the back of margin expansion in Crop Protection and better manufacturing and trading margins in the Fertilizer segment. Increasing phos acid prices (+35% YoY and +15% QoQ) and, consequently, a price hike in complex fertilizers would continue to be the key monitorable....

We expect increasing share of unique-grade fertilizers and crop protection products to aid profit growth in the long term We downgrade our rating from Buy to Accumulate based on 17x FY22E EPS and a target price of Rs.837, as we feel that the current...

CRIN An Integrated Play on Crop Protection ...................................................... 4 Story in Charts ....................................................................................................... 5 Investment Arguments ........................................................................................... 6 Phosphate fertilizer RM prices have bottomed out ............................................. 6 DAP affordability index @ 61 has bottomed out ............................................. 6 Raw material prices have bottomed out globally ............................................ 6 Rock Phosphate prices imitate Phosphoric acid price trend ....................... 7 Recovery in North American agriculture to drive demand ............................ 10...

During the quarter, plant protection revenue declined 36% YoY to INR2,710m, with the EBIT margin shrinking 10pp YoY to 2.2%, primarily on account of the shutdown at the Sarigam plant (revenue/EBITDA impact of INR700-800m/INR400-450m) and the softness in mancozeb prices. Additionally, EBITDA/mt for the fertilizer segment stood at INR2,979 up 49% YoY owing to forex gain (INR300m) and lower RM cost. (i) MRP across fertilizers declined by 8-10% owing to a decrease in RM cost. (ii) Company guided for 8-12% revenue growth in FY20, with EBITDA margin of 14-15% in the plant protection business. We cut our earnings estimate by 6%/7% for FY20/21, mainly on account (a) a cut in the EBITDA estimate for the crop protection business by 12%/6.5% for FY20/21 and (b) an increase in depreciation and interest cost. Maintain Coromandel International Crop protection revenue declined 36% YoY to INR2.7b, while nutrient & other allied business revenue was down 12% YoY to INR18.8b.

We expect margin pressure to subside in FY20, due to backward integration in phosphoric acid, coupled with lower RM prices. We expect the non-subsidy business to grow (estimate a 20% CAGR in the crop protection business over FY20-21E to ` 25.0bn). The company expects the plant in Sarigam, which is currently shut, to become operational in 1HFY20. The Dahej plant, which manufactures Mancozeb, has become operational and is likely to lead to volume growth in the crop protection business. The stock is currently available at 15.4x and 13.6x FY20E and FY21E EPS. We...

YoY to 9.8% (our estimate: 6.7%). Consequently, adj. PAT grew 26% YoY to INR1,129m (our estimate: INR864m). FY19 performance: Revenue grew 19.3% YoY to INR132.3b, while the margin shrank 40bp YoY to 10.9%. Adj. PAT grew 6.5% YoY to INR7,362m. RM prices softening but expect working capital pressure: CRIN has contracted phos acid at USD728/mt for 1QFY20 (v/s USD750/mt in 4QFY19), indicating stability in RM prices. However, we expect continued working capital pressure owing to delayed subsidy disbursal. The company received...

GSFC has announced the annual shutdown of its Ammonia - IV (1,350MTD) plant at Vadodara unit for 50 days. Due to this, other connected plants Urea-II (800MTD), Caprolactam-I (20,000TPA), AS-II, and SA-II (469TPD) will also be affected. GSFC has made alternate arrangements to minimize the production losses of various fertilizers and industrial products. The company is also ensuring continuous supply of...

Coromandel International (CRIN) incurs a major raw material (RM) cost in the form of phosphoric acid (38-40% of RM cost, based on our assumption). Consequently, the 30% YoY spike in the price of phosphoric acid in FY19YTD is likely to have exerted pressure on its margins in 1HFY19. Tackling near-term margin headwinds, too, appears to be a tough job. In this report, we, thus, attempt to analyze supply, demand and raw material (rock phosphate and sulphuric acid) cost trends, which primarily dictate the phosphoric acid prices.

Chambal Fertilisers (CHMB) reported revenue of Rs 10.7bn (-24% YoY) in 4QFY17, led by lower volumes (-14%, urea plant shutdown, a drop in trading vols) and lower fertilisers? realisations. EBITDA was at Rs 846mn ( 1%). Lower depreciation and interest costs boosted APAT to Rs 587mn (vs loss of Rs 151mn YoY).

Manufactured fertiliser margins fell to a level of Rs 1456/mt (v/s 9M Rs 1520/mt). Higher production of low margin DAP fertilliser and trading impacted fertiliser margins. Absolute EBITDA declined a sharp 30%. A 20% jump in interest outgo was somewhat offset by...

Coromandel International (CRIN) reported an EBITDA of Rs 1.7bn (-27% YoY), led by a drop in fertiliser volumes (-15%) and margins. The non-subsidy business was under pressure owing to unfavourable weather conditions and muted agri-commodity prices. High interest cost ( 21%, higher subsidy receivables) dragged APAT to Rs 636mn (-47%).