Broker research reports for stocks which have been downgraded by brokers. Both recommendation downgrades,
as well as share price target downgrades are available for companies in Industry - Warehousing & Logistics.
Broker Research reports: latest Downgrades
for Industry - Warehousing & Logistics
We cut our EPS estimates by 14%/9% for FY26E/FY27E amid persistent volume growth challenges and pricing pressure. TCIEXP IN reported weak set of results as revenues declined 2.1% YoY to Rs2,868mn (PLe Rs2,950mn) with an EBITDA margin of 9.8% (PLe 11.4%) as volumes declined for 7th quarter in a row to 233,000 MT (auto was the key segment facing challenges this time). Pricing pressure was also evident as realization was down 1.3% YoY to Rs12.3 per KG. Given stiff competition, we expect volume and realization CAGR of 4%/1% over...
TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q1FY26 EBITDA was slightly below consensus estimates. Volume fell 0.9% YoY to 233kte (235kte in Q1FY25) on subdued demand. EBITDA margin improved QoQ to 9.8% (vs. 8.5% in Q4FY25 and 11.2% in Q1FY25), mainly on account of 75bps price hike and stable variable costs in Q1.
Service EBITDA margin of PTL business zooms to 10.7% (3.2% in 1QFY25). We increase our FY26E/FY27E EBITDA estimates by 3.7%/2.0% amid strong performance in 1QFY26 but downgrade DELHIVER IN to ACCUMULATE (earlier BUY) with a TP of Rs466 given 34% appreciation in stock price since our last update report. While DELHIVER IN's top-line was a miss by 6.8% due to weak performance from SCS and cross border businesses, B2C shipment volume growth was back in double-digits after 5 quarters. Operating performance was...
Revenue declined by 3.0% YoY: Revenue decreased by 3.0% YoY to Rs3,075mn (PLe Rs3,033mn) on account of lower volumes. Gross margin declined to 28.3% Rs341mn) on account of higher operational expenses like toll tax and labor cost....
TCI Express (TCIE)’s 4QFY25 revenue decreased 3% YoY to INR3.1b (+4% QoQ), in line with our estimate. Volumes declined 1% YoY in 4QFY25. Volumes were hit by slower growth in the SME segment.
Delhivery’s Q4FY25 print was a mixed bag, with revenue missing our estimate by 4% while EBITDA registered an 18% beat. The B2C segment continued to track its muted trajectory, growing only 3% YoY due to subdued demand and insourcing by Meesho.
Air express logistics companies benefit significantly from a reduction in the prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) as ATF costs account for 35-45% of their total operating costs. ATF price declined 6% MoM (-12% YoY) in Apr’25 to INR83,575/kl.
Express business has secured new monthly orders of ~5,000 MT to lower demand in core 3PL segment, operating performance was broadly inline with EBITDA margin of 5.0% (PLe 4.6%). Though EBITDA losses in B2B express business have narrowed from Rs803mn in FY24 to Rs511mn in FY25, a complete turnaround in near term continues to remain a cause of concern. While management expects EBITDA break-even by 2QFY26E, incremental...
Mahindra Logistics (MLL)’s revenue grew ~8% YoY to INR15.7b in 4QFY25, in line with our estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 5% (+110bp YoY and +30bp QoQ) vs. our estimate of 4.7%. EBITDA rose ~37% YoY to INR777m (in line).
Delhivery announced the acquisition of Ecom Express – the second largest 3PL B2C operator, for a cash consideration of Rs14bn, valuing the company at 0.6x EV/sales (on FY24 numbers).
Service level EBITDA margin for Delhivery express parcel segment was ~500bps lower than what was realised in Q3FY24, despite a similar top line due to a one-off surge in intracity vehicle rental expenses (cINR 540mn differential).
TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q3FY25 EBITDA of INR 289mn was 22.9% below our estimates. Volume declined 3.2% YoY due to subdued demand. EBITDA margin slipped to 9.8% (lowest since Q2FY21) on account of a volume dip, higher operating costs and unabsorbed fixed cost.
TCI Express (TCIE)’s 3QFY25 revenue decreased 5% YoY to ~INR3b (10% below our estimate), while volumes declined 3% YoY. Volumes were hit by slower growth in the manufacturing, automobiles, and consumer durables sectors.
Container Corporation of India (CCRI)’s revenues were flat YoY at INR22b during 3QFY25 (10% below our estimate). Total volumes grew 12% YoY to 1.3m TEUs, with EXIM/Domestic volumes at 0.97m/0.3m TEUs, respectively (+8%/+25% YoY).
