Downgrades

segment (realization/volume was lower by 9%/5% respectively). We expect revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 7%/8% over FY25-FY27E given rising competition in domestic stationary business and gradual migration of students from state...

Quarterly Update Q1FY26

SCHAND reported an in-line operating performance with EBITDA margin of 43.1% (PLe 42.2%) while there was a narrow miss at bottom-line level due to higher-than-expected tax rate of 26.7% (PLe 21.9%) amid non-recognition of DTAs in subsidiaries. Management expects revenues to surpass Rs8,000mn with EBITDA margin of ~18-20% in FY26E led by 1) 5-7% increase in volumes as NCERT is expected to announce new syllabus books for grades 4,5,7&8, 2) multiple content syndication deals and 3) single digit price hike across product...

Even the domestic stationary business is reeling under pressure from falling volumes and declining realizations. While price reset happened in FY25 due to fall in paper prices and could be deemed transitory in nature, volume decline of...

Quarterly Update Q4FY25

Quarterly Update Q3FY25

Quarterly Update Q4FY24

Revenues at | 446.8 crore, were up ~10.4% on a depressed base (Q3FY21 revenues were down ~17%). Print & digital ad revenue was up ~6% YoY on base of 13% decline while subscription revenues remained resilient and were up 5.4% YoY driven by cover price hike. Radio ad revenue registered...

Revenues at | 304.3 crore were up 45% on a depressed base but down 33% QoQ. Print & digital ad revenue was up 57% YoY (down 45% QoQ) on the base of 76% decline while subscription revenues remained resilient and were up 19.3% YoY and flattish QoQ at | 110.6 crore. Radio ad revenue...

The management indicated that their focus in FY22 would be to bring back volumes, which means that ad pricing would be still suppressed. We expect a pricing recovery only in FY23, provided circulation is not impacted by any potential third wave. The company had taken | 8-10 per month circulation hike, which was positively surprising considering the on ground situation. However, we believe it could be largely absorbed due to market share gain in its key markets. We now bake in lower print + digital ad revenue at | 1299 crore in FY23E with 18.4% CAGR in FY21-23E on a supressed base. DB...

Navneet reported mixed Q4FY20 results wherein revenues were impacted by Covid-19 disruptions while better gross margins supported PAT growth. Revenue for the quarter declined 15.6% YoY to | 207.2 crore (publication: 10% to | 55.9 crore, stationery: -17.5% to | 151.0 crore). According to the management, due to lockdown company, lost revenues worth | 54 crore (publication: | 10 crore, stationery: | 44 crore). Gross margins improved substantially by 950 bps YoY to 61.6% owing to benefits of a decline in paper prices (~600 bps) and favourable product mix for stationery exports. EBITDA grew 16% YoY to | 32.7 crore with margin expansion of 430 bps...

S Chand's operating performance (EBITDA loss of Rs363mn) was in-line with our estimate of Rs374mn in a non-seasonal quarter due to stringent cost control. Management indicated that schools will re-open from November onwards in a phased manner and has lined up aggressive expansion plans in the Ed-Tech space. For Mylestone, a digital offering of S Chand, the target is...

We cut our sales/PAT estimates by 7.7%/6.0% for FY21E as 1) in a truncated academic year, recouping the entire lost sales of 1Q (strongest quarter) can be a challenge 2) domestic stationary business is expected to suffer due to delay in opening of schools 3) exports stationary business has witnessed some order cancellations and revenue is expected to be flat and 4) ILL business can face growth headwinds as penetrating newer schools can get difficult in such an environment. However, our FY22E estimates are more or less unchanged as we expect normalcy to resume by next academic cycle....

rationalization by 10-20% to result in cost savings in FY21. COVID-19 led to a revenue loss/spillover of Rs1.6-1.8bn. While cost generation at Rs486mn was below expectations of Rs1.2bn as lockdown impacted collection efforts and led to inventory pile up. Given the uncertain timeline regarding start of the upcoming academic year, full recovery of...

Post a weak FY20, FY21E outlook also looks challenging for the print industry considering the extended lockdown in Q1FY21E, stretched fiscal (impacting government ads) and dislocation at local business levels. We believe a recovery in ad volume will take time. Among positives, DB Corp has maintained good dividend payout (| 10/share in FY20). Softened raw material prices with cash of | 135 crore will support operational performance in the near term. The stock price has sharply corrected since our last recommendation but we remain wary of promoters' pledge (~35.3% of...