Downgrades

We maintain our HOLD Rating on the stock.

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) 2Q earnings at INR2.7b were below our estimate of INR3.7b due to an adverse mix, the impact of US tariffs, and weak demand.

BKT's sales volume was impacted by tariff-related disruptions, leading to a volatile ordering cycle in April. Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical challenges in key export markets have dampened customer sentiment. However, the company expects the ordering cycle to normalise with a permanent tariff structure. BKT has been gaining brand acceptance in the Indian market and aims to enhance it further by launching into the PCR and CV segments. With expansions in the OHT segment...

GST Rationalization: Structural boost for Automobile industry: Government has announced GST 2.0 reforms thereby reducing GST rates for the automobile sector across the segments and value chain. Small cars, 2-W's up to 350cc, and 3-Ws will now attract 18% GST vs. 28% earlier, while buses & trucks also shift to 18% rate. Farm machinery like tractors & their components have also seen a reduction from 12% to 5%. Total tax incidence for larger passenger cars, SUVs is also reduced from 43-50% to 40%. Apollo tyres stand to benefit from GST rate cut, as the move towards...

In a deal valued at ~USD 225mn, CEAT has completed its acquisition of the CAMSO brand’s off-highway construction equipment-bias tyre and tracks business from Michelin.

Apollo Tyres (APTY)’s 1QFY26 consolidated performance was in line with our estimates. However, while standalone performance was much ahead of our estimates, the European business margin was weaker than expected.

Apollo Tyres (APTY) Q1FY26 operating performance broadly was in-line. Standalone margin was better than our estimate (on lower RM basket) but was offset by weak margin performance in EU.

JKI’s Q3FY25 performance was significantly impacted by high-cost inventory (major hit in Q3; guided to partial reversal in Q4) along with subdued demand from CV OEMs; this resulted in a largely flattish consolidated revenue performance.

APTY delivered a steady Q3, with revenue growth accelerating to 5% YoY, surpassing our estimate (by 3%), and driven by strong replacement demand; offset by flattish exports and weak OEM demand.

We upgrade our rating on the stock to BUY as the valuations appear attractive at the current level.

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) delivered an operationally in-line performance in 3QFY25, with Fx gains driving an Adj. PAT beat at INR4.4b (up 43% YoY, vs. est. INR3.8b).

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

Apollo (ATL) missed EBITDA margin estimates by 160 bps due to higher-than-expected other expenses and employee cost as slow growth in topline and RM cost pressure on q-o-q basis was expected.

Apollo Tyres’ (APTY) standalone EBITDAM was down 90bps QoQ at 17.2% vs I-Sec estimate of 19.6%, with Q4 being a seasonally strong quarter in terms of demand and raw material basket cost was likely to be favourable. Margin miss was due to i) lower-thanexpected revenue, ii) lower GM and iii) higher other expenses (even after adjusting for EPR provisioning) due to elevated ad/marketing expenses to enhance brand presence in replacement market

We maintain our Hold rating on the stock as broader headwinds are expected to persist in H1FY25.

CEAT’s 4QFY24 results disappointed despite healthy volume growth in the
replacement and exports segments. Margins were hit by higher ad spending
and extended producer responsibility (EPR)-related provisions.
Management has provided high single-digit volume growth guidance for
FY25.

MRF’s 4QFY24 result was weak as higher RM costs and operating expenses
led to lower adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% (-100bp QoQ vs. est. 17%). A
provision of INR463.6m, which was made in FY23, was recognized in 4Q
along with the additional provision of INR981.4m for FY24 to cover EPR
costs.

Quarterly Update Q3FY24