Hindustan Zinc (HZ)'s 3QFY21 results were strong, as expected, with EBITDA up 43% YoY on higher volumes and prices. While silver business remained strong with EBIT of INR10.1b (37% of total), zinc realized premiums recovered to pre-COVID levels as the share of domestic volumes improved in 3Q. As major projects near completion, we expect 9% CAGR in HZ volumes over FY21-23E, driving an 18% CAGR in EBITDA. However, we believe this growth is factored in the current valuation and hence we rate it Neutral....

In Q1FY21, standalone revenue fell 20.8% YoY to Rs. 3,898cr, mainly due to weaker revenue from Zinc (-27.0% YoY, 65.7% of total revenue) and Lead (-11.7% YoY, 15.5% of total revenue). The drop in revenue was attributable to reduced prices (Zinc LME: -29.0% YoY and Lead LME: -11.2%YoY), lower volumes (impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic) and shrunk premiums (due to adverse domestic-export mix), partly offset by rupee depreciation. Mined metal production dropped 5.2% YoY to 202kt owing to outage in April during the lockdown. Saleable Silver production decreased to 117mt (-26.4% YoY) due to delayed stabilization of DSC lead smelter and increase in WIP,...

Hindustan Zinc (HZ) reported earnings in line with ours/consensus estimates. HZ missed its guidance on volumes and ore grade over past couple of years due to delay in commissioning of shafts and weaker than assessed ore grade. As the new shafts at both Rampura Agucha (RA) and Sindesar Khurd (SK) mines commenced hauling of ore, we expect significant improvement in quality of operations with better visibility on production and lower costs. In last five years since FY15, ore grade has fallen by ~30% to 7.5% due to fall in...

21 July 2020 Revenue declined 9% QoQ (-20% YoY) to INR39.9b (v/s est. INR37.8b), primarily due to decline in volumes (208kt, -6% QoQ), Zinc LME (-8% QoQ) and premiums offset by currency depreciation (5%). Hindustan Zincs (HZ) 1QFY21 results reflect impact of the COVID-19 led shutdown, lower LME and adverse sales mix (higher exports). EBITDA was down 14% QoQ to INR15.8b (6% higher than est.), aided by lower costs. However, PAT inched up 1% QoQ to INR13.6b on higher other income (v/s est. We expect HZs EBITDA at 11% CAGR over FY20-22E despite lower LME, primarily on ~10% volume CAGR to 1,034kt. Maintain Derived Zinc realizations declined 11% QoQ to USD2,070/t (v/s 8% decline in LME zinc) due to lower realized premiums, which in turn was on account of higher exports (70% of volumes v/s normal level of 25%).

Q3FY20 witnessed weakness in Zinc prices, and decline in production activities. However, we expect recovery in the last quarter and maintained our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 228 based on 11x FY22E P/E. Production challenges weigh on Q3 performance In Q3FY20, revenue from operations fell 15.7% YoY to Rs. 4,672 cr mainly due to weaker revenue from Zinc (-17.6% YoY, 67.7% of total revenue), and Lead (-21.1% YoY, 14.0%), partially offset by slight improvements in Silver (1.9% YoY, 14.8%). Zinc...

21 January 2020 3QFY20 results broadly reflect Hindustan Zincs (HZL) continuing challenges in ramping up production. While mined metal production did recover (+4% QoQ), it was on a low, seasonally weak base. Revenue/EBITDA was up 4%/8% QoQ (in-line). We expect volumes to recover in 4QFY20 as production issues recede with ramp-up from SK mines. We build in 17% QoQ improvement in EBITDA for 4QFY20 on higher volumes and lower costs. However, at 6x FY21E EV/EBITDA, this benefit is well baked in. Maintain HZLs EBITDA was up 8% QoQ at INR22.9b (in line with est) on the back of some sequential recovery in volumes. Refined metal production rose 4% QoQ to 219kt. Revenue also increased 4% QoQ on higher zinc/silver volumes and slightly better LME prices. PBT came in at INR21b (flat QoQ). PAT, though decreased 22% QoQ to INR16.2b (5% lower than est.) as 2QFY20 had deferred tax credits of INR3.65b.

Earnings visibility continued to remain weak due to deteriorating ore grade last one month due to production restrictions in China and improvement in sentiments related to USA-China Trade war. However, we do not see prices...