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for Industry - Asset Management Cos.
UTI had reported strong 37% QoQ core EBITDA growth in Q2FY24 compared to 26% QoQ growth in Q1FY24. Operationally Q2FY24 saw sequential equity / total market share decline of 8bps / 13bps to 5.68%/4.31% on the basis of AAUM, along with a decline in SIP flow/AUM share.
HDFC AMC reported 22-quarter high EBITDA of INR 4.82bn in Q2FY24 driven by 29.6% end-to-end equity AUM growth in H1FY24. Improvement in fund performance is leading to superior business metrics such as gain in equity market share, unique investor share, and gain in flow market share in equity segment across channels.
We upgrade Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL) on the back of improved earnings growth prospects driven by better fund performance, strong retail franchise and revision in TER regulation, which is now expected to be favourable (Link) vs earlier announcements.
We factor in 17.4% AAUM CAGR between FY23-25E and overall revenue yield to decline from 45.9bps in FY23 to 44.8bps in FY24E to 42.8bps in FY25E leading to a revenue CAGR of 13% during the same period. We expect total opex CAGR of 11.1%, resulting in ~14.2/13.7% core EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY23-25E.
While UTI reported strong 26% QoQ EBITDA growth in Q1FY24, there was sequential equity / total market share decline of 5bps / 9bps on the basis of ending AUM, along with marginal decline in SIP flow/AUM share. However, employee cost is now showing consistent signs of stabilising (broadly at INR 1bn levels for 5 quarters), which should help earnings growth. International and retirement subsidiaries offer good diversification.