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for Industry - Exploration & Production
Oil production in KG-Basin to ramp up from 35kbopd to 45kbopd Mixed production profile of standalone oil (+0.4% QoQ) and gas (-1.9% QoQ) combined with marginally higher oil price realization of USD73.7/bbl in Q4 vs USD72.6/bbl in Q3FY25 resulted in revenues of Rs349.8bn, +3.8% QoQ. EBITDA of Rs190bn (+0.2% QoQ) was 3.8% higher than our est of 183.2bn & consensus of Rs179.7bn. Much higher DDA led by write-offs resulted in PBT declining by 20% QoQ to Rs88bn (PLe Rs107bn) despite growth in rev. PAT stood at...
EBITDA was at | 15969.1 crore, up 20.7% QoQ (estimate: | 14975.9 crore) PAT was at | 8763.7 crore, down 52.2% QoQ (estimate of | 7932 crore) as the company reported negative tax outgo in previous quarter What should investors do? ONGC's share price has underperformed the benchmark over the past four years due to a decline in domestic oil & gas production. Due to lower production growth on a sustainable basis, despite cheaper valuation,...
Oil prices have also been on an upward trend for the last five quarters and are currently at nearly three-year high of US$83/bbl What should investors do? ONGC's share price has underperformed the benchmark over the past four years due to a decline in domestic oil & gas production. Due to lower production growth on a sustainable basis, despite cheaper valuations,...
PAT was at | 4334.8 crore, down 35.6% QoQ as the company had reported exceptional gain of | 2613.2 crore in Q4FY21 What should investors do? ONGC's share price has declined over the past five years due to a decline in domestic oil & gas production. Due to lower production...
ONGC's Q3FY21 revenue and EBITDA was in-line with our estimates, while PAT was below our estimates on the back of higher than expected tax rate and lower other income. Oil/Gas production volume declined 3%/6% YoY to 5.6mmt/5.8bcm. Effective tax rate came at 51% while other income was also down by 13% YoY to Rs12 bn. The company is forming a 100% subsidiary for natural gas/LNG sourcing and marketing. Along with the group companies ONGC needs 2.5-4mmt of natural gas. It expects production volume from KG basin to averge 3.4mmscmd in FY22 and 8.5mmscmd in FY23 and peak production of 15mmscmd to reach in FY24. We expect US$2.6/...
Crude oil prices stayed volatile in Q1FY21. Brent crude oil prices fell up to ~US$17/bbl while WTI oil prices traded in the negative for the first time in April. With demand increasing following a resumption of economic activities & Opec output cuts, Brent oil prices recovered in May, June. Average Brent crude oil prices remained lower at US$31.4/bbl, a decline of US$19.2/bbl QoQ. In Q2FY21E, oil prices are in range of US$45/bbl. Going ahead, we model net realisation of US$39.4/bbl for FY21E, US$48.5/bbl for FY22E at Brent oil prices of US$41/bbl, US$ 50/bbl, respectively, taking into account...
Oil India (OIL) reported a mixed-bag in Q1FY21 where EBITDA was ahead of our forecast led by lower then estimated other expenses while net profit was below expectations driven by higher then estimated DDA expense. Revenue was down 48.3% YoY to Rs17.4 bn owing to 8.1%/8.6% YoY decline in oil/gas sales volume and 54%/29% YoY drop in oil/gas realization in Q1FY21. We expect oil production to fall by 2% in FY21 and flattish growth in FY22 due to natural decline. Gas volume is estimated to dip by 5% for FY21 before reaching to FY20 levels in FY22 on the back of Baghjan fire, flood and Covid-19. We forecast crude oil price (Brent) to average to US40/bbl and US$50/bbl in FY21 and...
Oil India Limited (Oil India) reported weak Q1FY2021 numbers, clocking a net loss of Rs. 249 crore (as against a net profit of Rs. 625 crore in Q1FY2020) due to: 1) weak oil and gas realisations, declining by 54.1% y-o-y and 29% y-o-y respectively, 2) higher-than-expected operating expenses on account of exploration cost write-off of Rs. 115 crore (versus negative Rs. 1 crore in Q1FY2020) and 3) exceptional expenses of Rs. 93 crore related to control blowout at Baghjan Oilfields and 4) lower-than-expected other income (down 87% q-o-q). Even after adjusting for exceptional expenses, net loss...
Crude prices witnessed a sharp decline in March due to spread of Covid-19 across the globe and Opec deal failure. A likely increase in oil output by both Saudi Arabia and Russia from Q1FY21E and lower demand are expected to lead to a sizeable oversupply in the oil market. Subsequent low oil prices are expected to significantly affect ONGC's profitability....
The volatility in crude oil prices is expected to continue in short-term, while the new block should provide necessary uptick in production from FY21 onwards. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a roll forward target price of Rs. 107 using SOTP valuation. Topline adversely impacted by weaker realizations In Q3FY20, standalone revenue fell 14.4% YoY to Rs. 23,710cr, on the back of a continued decline in crude oil prices in the global markets. Offshore business revenue dropped 16.8% YoY to Rs. 15,765cr, while Onshore business decreased to Rs. 7,945cr...
During the quarter, the company witnessed decline in revenue of 16.0% YoY to Rs. 2,952cr. The revenue was suppressed by both the major segments of the company, Crude Oil and Natural gas, declining 16.2% YoY to Rs. 2,326cr and 12.1% YoY to Rs. 505cr, respectively. Crude oil revenue continued to be impacted by softened prices leading to a drop in price realization to Rs. 4,507/bbl from Rs. 4,805/bbl in Q3FY19. Environmental issues and lower demand led to the decline in Crude oil production by 10.9% YoY to 0.747mmt along with drop in Natural gas production by 4.8% YoY to 0.697bcm. Similarly, Crude oil sales weakened by 10.8% YoY to 0.726mmt and Natural...
ONGC declared its O3FY20 results that were below our estimates on the profitability front, mainly due to higher depreciation & amortisation costs and lower other income. Revenues declined 3.2% QoQ at | 23710.1 crore (our estimate: | 22823.2 crore) on account of marginally lower realisations as well as sales volume QoQ. The oil & gas production was largely in line with our estimates. As per expectations, the quarter witnessed nil subsidy burden while net realisations were at US$59.7/bbl. EBITDA during the quarter declined 7.5% QoQ and came in at | 12298.3 crore (our estimate:...
Continued weakness in crude oil impacts performance Standalone revenues declined 12.5% YoY to Rs. 24,493cr in Q2FY20, impacted by lower crude oil volumes and pricing. Crude oil prices fell 17.0% YoY to USD 60.3/bbl (-9.0% QoQ), while crude oil production volumes declined 3.9% YoY to 5.8t and sales volumes fell 1.2% YoY to 5.4mt. Overall revenue from offshore facilities dropped 15.8% YoY to Rs. 16,014cr, while onshore facilities revenue declined 5.5% YoY to Rs. 8,479cr. EBITDA was down 14.8% YoY to Rs. 14,377cr as EBITDA margin contracted ~160bps YoY to 58.7% due to higher material costs. PAT of Rs. 6,263cr (-24.2% YoY)...
