Buy

Revenue for 2QFY26 came at INR302b (-2% YoY and -16% QoQ), against our estimate of INR299b. The decline was mainly led by muted volume.

Marred by extended monsoons coal-based thermal power generation touched a ~30-mth low of 99.29GW in Sep’25, dampening the thermal coal off-take volume.

2QFY26 revenue stood at INR63.8b (vs. our est. of INR60.2b), up 30% YoY but down 5% QoQ, primarily affected by muted volumes.

LMEL enjoys cost advantage due to the low royalty on its pre-MMDR act 2015 (Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act) allocated mine. Operational efficiency is further enhanced by the acquisition of Thriveni Earthmovers, a leading Mine Developer and Operator...

NMDC Ltd (National Mineral Development Corporation) is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter. It operates key mines in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka and has a strategic presence in minerals like diamonds and base metals. It plays a critical role in supplying raw material to the domestic steel industry....

India’s total installed power capacity reached ~490GW as of Jul’25, grew at 7.8% CAGR over the past 15 years. Renewable energy (~237 GW, 49% share) has surpassed thermal capacity (~220 GW, 44% share), where RE and thermal grew at 10.9% and 6.5% CAGR, respectively, over the past 15 years.

Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR67.4b, rising 25% YoY but declining 4% QoQ. Muted volumes QoQ were offset by healthy NSR.

Q1FY26 consolidated revenue of Rs. 35,842 crore was down 1.7% y-o-y. Volume saw a de-growth while the realization was almost flat y-o-y.

1QFY26 revenue came in at INR358b (-2% YoY and -5% QoQ) against our est. of INR372b. Adj. EBITDA (excluding OBR exp) stood at INR111b (-4% YoY and -1% QoQ) against our estimate of INR115b.

Despite MOIL reporting its highest quarterly production of 0.502m tonnes (up 6.8% y/y) in Q1, sales were down 21.4% y/y to 0.356m tonnes. We believe, when Q1 crude steel production rose 10.4% y/y (40.3m tonnes), the early monsoon in May’25 cut MOIL’s offtake.

In April 2025, China restricted rare earth exports, affecting Indian firms like Mahle, Bosch, TVS, Uno Minda, and Sona Comstar. These materials are vital for EVs and defense due to their use in high-strength permanent magnets. India, with 6.9% of global reserves, has launched a self-reliance push supported by incentive schemes.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with an upside of 10% from the CMP.

Revenue stood in line with our estimate at INR70b, up 8% YoY and 7% QoQ, primarily driven by healthy volumes and NSR growth.

MOIL targets 2.5mt production by FY26 and 3.5mt by FY30 from 1.8mt in FY25, driven by ramp-ups at Gumgaon and Balaghat mines. Sales are projected at 1.9mt in FY26 and 2.4mt in FY27, with upside potential from operational improvements. Domestic manganese demand rose sharply in FY25, driven by steel and alloy production, indicating a strong demand outlook. The company laid down a capex roadmap at Rs3.4bn for FY26, with a total of Rs24bn earmarked till FY30, to be spent in a phased manner. The...

Q4FY25 consolidated revenue of Rs. 37,825 crore was up 1.1% y-o-y. Volume and realization growth were both tepid and almost flat y-o-y. The volume growth has been slow overall due to increase in captive consumption of coal.

COAL reported a strong quarterly performance, with Q4FY25 EBITDA at Rs132.9bn (+2.5% vs Emkay; +17.3% vs consensus). The performance in Q4 profitability is on the back of better-than-expected e-auction premiums, lower employee cost, and lower reversal from stripping activity.

We retain the BUY rating.

Public hearing and mine inspection for EC enhancement has already been completed and is awaiting a formal response from the MoEF. Environmental public hearing for the EC expansion which completed in Jan’25 received consent from representatives of ~30 villages and the management expects receipt of formal response by end of May'25.

We recently organized an underground mine visit in Gumgaon for our clients and thereafter interacted with Mr Ajit Kumar Saxena (Chairman and Managing Director), Mr Rakesh Tumane (Director- Finance), Mr M.M. Abdulla (Director- Production & Planning) and other Board of Directors.

We see CIL’s FY25 performance to be impacted by possibly stagnant volumes, though e-auction price remains relatively stable. Production and offtake volumes until Feb’25–YTD was impacted by rake unavailability, inclement monsoons and ongoing production issues at SECL.