Buy

Consolidated net sales stood at INR660.6b (+14% YoY and +3% QoQ) against our est. of INR637.4b, driven by favorable pricing and a better product mix.

Steady prospects at Zinc India; growth building in power & steel: Zinc India remain to be cash cow, contributing ~37% to VEDL's H1FY26 EBITDA. While near-term growth is modest, long-term prospects are robust with mined metal capacity expected to rise to 1.5 MT by FY28 and potential scale-up to 2 MT, alongside a ~250 KT zinc smelter expansion at capex of 12,000 crore. This is further supported by ~2,200 MW of thermal power capacity (Meenakshi & Athena), iron ore expansion to 30 MTPA, and the doubling of steel capacity to 3.5 MT by FY27E. Overall, we expect...

Hindustan Zinc (HZ) is a key beneficiary of the uptrend in silver prices, which are up 63% YTD. We believe the exposure to silver is underpriced as the consensus expectations trail the strong move in silver in recent months with the metal now trading at USD47/oz (vs USD34/oz in Q1FY26 and USD30/oz in FY25).

We upgrade Hindalco to BUY from Reduce, with an increased TP of Rs900 (Rs650 earlier). After the flatlined stock performance in the past 12M, we see HNDL doing well from here.

Incorporated in 1958, Hindalco Industries Ltd. is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group. The Co and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the production of Aluminium and Copper. It is also engaged in the manufacturing of aluminium sheet, extrusion and light gauge products for use in packaging markets like...

Vedanta (VEDL), with its bid amount of ~INR 170bn (staggered over 5 years), has reportedly (Link) emerged as the highest bidder for acquiring the assets of Jaiprakash Associate (JAL).

*over or under performance to benchmark index Vedanta's financial performance was moderate in Q1FY26, characterised by commodity price volatility and changing global trade dynamics. Despite the macro headwinds, domestic demand was strong, helping support market premiums. Margins were strong across key businesses, driven by operational excellence and cost discipline. The company's commitment to deleveraging and improving its capital efficiency, along with a robust business model, strong governance framework and transparent disclosures,...

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We maintain our BUY rating.

National Aluminum (NACL) reported weak operating performance in Q1FY26 on low pricing and higher other expenses. Alumina/metal volumes grew 3x/6% YoY to 304kt/113kt on weak base. Average Q1 alumina NSR declined 37% QoQ to USD 419/t, while that for metal declined 6% YoY to USD 2,791/t. RM costs increased led by an inch up in caustic soda prices, while other expenses were elevated on account of RPO obligation compliance costs and higher repairs/ coal transportation costs, leading to below estimate EBITDA delivery. Mgmt. reiterated FY26 alumina sales guidance at ~1.28mt, supported by higher...

alumina NSR improved 83% YoY to USD670/t, while that for metal grew 22% YoY to USD2,973/t on strong LME. EBITDA grew robust 149% YoY on favorable pricing and lean cost structure supported by captive coal. Mgmt. guided for...

Hindalco’s (HNDL) Q4FY25 performance was ahead of our/consensus estimates. Consolidated EBITDA rose 44% YoY to INR 96bn, mainly due to upstream aluminium (Al) division.

Novelis’ Q4FY25 performance was in line with our estimates. Operating leverage benefits resulted in EBITDA/te rebounding to USD 494, sales volume rose 6% QoQ as beverage can market remains strong.

VED reported a steady Q4FY25 with EBITDA of Rs116.2bn (+4.5% vs Emkay; +3.0% QoQ); the performance was mainly led by sequentially better profitability in its Aluminium and Zinc India businesses.

India aluminum consumption is expected to double to 11.37mt, while copper consumption is likely to grow 2.5x to 2.54mt over the next decade. Hindalco Industries (HNDL), at its annual investors' day, outlined its long-term strategy for both India business and Novelis. Out of already announced USD5bn India capex, HNDL is investing ~USD2bn and USD1.6bn in upstream businesses of aluminum and copper, respectively, while the rest would be spent on various downstream projects and coal mining. With captive coal mines...

We recently attended Hindalco’s Investor Day 2025 where management unveiled ~$10bn expansion plan for Novelis and India, along with multiple strategic initiatives, which would help strengthen its market leadership.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

We attended Hindalco Industries’ (HNDL) Investor Day. Long-term capacity growth aspirations in India, focus on value-added products dovetailing with domestic requirements.

HNDL and its subsidiary, Novelis, are investing ~USD10b in growth projects to significantly boost capacities. In India, HNDL is expanding its aluminum upstream (Aditya smelter 180 KT, alumina refinery 850 KT), downstream (FRP-170 KT, battery enclosures etc), and copper capacities (smelter 300 KT and recycling 50KT), with a total of USD5.2b currently under execution.

We attended the new brand identity exhibition organized by Hindalco (HNDL), showcasing the range of products and solutions it offers. The central theme of the event was sustainability, highlighting HNDL's commitment to eco-friendly practices and sustainable product development to cater to new age requirements and making HNDL greener over the long term. The thrust on specialty alumina was evident due to its wide applications across diverse industries, while HNDL's efforts in new product development to replace imports and other heavier metals are impressive. With rising usage of aluminum...