Buy

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Cholamandalam Inv. & Finance (CIFC)’s 2QFY26 PAT grew ~20% YoY to INR11.5b (in line). PAT grew ~20% YoY in 1HFY26, and we expect its PAT to grow ~21% YoY in 2H.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock

As of 30 Sep 2025, SHF has a huge presence with 3,225 branches across India and employee count of 78,833, customer base of ~96.6 lakhs. Q2FY26 performance: Shriram Finance reported steady performance in Q2FY26, disbursement growth and asset quality remained broadly steady. Disbursements grew by 10.2% YoY to 49,019 crore, while AUM increased by 15.7% YoY to 2,81,309 crore. NII rose 11.7% YoY 6,266 crore, with margins inching up 8 bps QoQ amid utilization of excess liquidity. Operational efficiency continued to remain strong with credit cost stable at ~1.9% resulting in 11.4% YoY growth in earnings at...

GS3 improved ~1pp QoQ aided by an ARC transaction; credit costs elevated IndoStar Capital Finance (IndoStar) delivered a weak performance in 2QFY26, with muted disbursements and weak AUM growth as it continued to follow tightened underwriting norms and prioritized asset quality.

Shriram Finance’s (SHFL) 2QFY26 PAT rose ~11% YoY to ~INR23b (~5% beat). PAT in 1HFY26 grew 10% YoY, and we expect PAT in 2HFY26 to grow 24% YoY.

Five Star Business Finance’s (FIVESTAR) 2QFY26 PAT grew 7% YoY to INR2.86b (in line). PAT in 1HFY26 grew 6% YoY and we expect PAT in 2HFY26 to grow by 15% YoY.

Alteration in asset mix to impart margin volatility: Gradual shift towards prime segment (personal loans, SME Finance and gold loans) is seen to provide stability, though impart some volatility in yields. Focus on gold loans, and revival in MFI along with reduction in cost of funds could partially offset the pressure, with near-term guidance remains at 10-10.5%. RoA target for medium term at 2.8-3% remains maintained, with gradual improvement expected as MFI segment stabilizes. With guidance for NIM + fee income at 1010.5% range, we expect RoA at 2.1% in FY26E-27E....

HDBFS posted an overall weak Q2FY26, with AUM growth (13% YoY), asset quality (GS3 +25bps QoQ to 2.81%), and credit cost (2.7%) coming in worse than consensus’ and our estimates.

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC) is currently navigating a cyclical soft patch, reflected in moderation in business volumes and AUM growth.

BAF’s AUM is expected to grow at 25% (CAGR) for FY25-FY27, driven by favorable government reforms, such as the reduction in GST on auto and consumer durables, which is expected to drive demand.

Riding the Gold Loan Surge

LTF began FY26 on a stable footing, despite ongoing asset quality challenges in the MFI industry (more residual in nature), unsecured business loans and micro-LAP.

Quarterly Update Q1FY26

Northern Arc’s ?13,351 crore loan book is strategically diversified across MSME (?2,687 crore, 20%), Consumer Finance (?3,502 crore, 26%), Rural Finance (?953 crore, 7%), and Intermediate Retail (?6,209 crore, 47%).

IndoStar Capital Finance (IndoStar) delivered a weak performance in 1QFY26, with muted disbursements and weak AUM growth, impacted by tighter stringent underwriting and seasonal factors.

We put Manappuram Finance (Manappuram) in this framework to upgrade the stock, from Hold, to BUY. We find future prospect promising with a new strategic direction for the business, which entails new management, lower MFI mix, better asset quality management and high growth and low yield in core gold business.

Net earnings were in line with estimates (rising 20.6% y-o-y and down 10.3% q-o-q) to Rs. 1,136 crore driven by growth in NII & other income and a lower opex run rate, however higher credit costs partially offset growth.

SUF AUM growth remains stable at 17% YoY vs 17% YoY (FY25) led by lower disbursements. Disbursements grew by 6% YoY (up 6% QoQ) during Q1FY26. Asset quality deteriorated however, continues to remain best-in-class; collections stood at 91%. NIMs (calculated) have improved (up 46bps YoY) led by increase in yields which resulted in strong NII growth (up 28% YoY). PPoP grew by 51% YoY led by higher non-interest income (up 65% YoY). PAT grew by 39% YoY led by higher provisions (up 114% YoY). Thus, RoA improved to 2.9% vs 2.85% QoQ. We have largely retained the estimates and upgraded the stock to BUY rating with TP of Rs.5,530...

CIFC's AUM growth slow down to 24% YoY vs 27% YoY led by flat YoY growth in disbursements. Management maintained guidance for 20-25% AUM growth led by 15-20% disbursement growth for longer term. NIM improved by 10bps QoQ led by lower cost of funds. We expect benefit of lower interest rate environment on account of fixed rate VF book. Asset quality deteriorated with GS3 at 3.16% vs 2.81%. NII grew by 26% YoY led by improvement in NIMs YoY; however, PPoP grew by 30% YoY led by increase in other income (up 94% YoY). PAT grew by 21% YoY led by higher provisions (up 52% YoY). We have largely maintained our...