Buy

ONGC’s Q2FY26 adj. EBITDA/PAT (standalone) came in at INR 175bn/INR 98.5bn (-3%/-18% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 179.7/INR 96.5bn. Slightly lower-than-estimated realisation and higher opex drove the underperformance.

Natural gas revenue improved YoY aided by higher nomination gas price at USD 6.64/MMBTU versus USD 6.50/MMBTU Q1FY25 and strong new well gas contribution at USD 8.26/MMBTU, delivering revenue of Rs. 1,703cr with a 20% premium. EBITDA grew 0.5% YoY to Rs. 17,185cr, while EBITDA margin expanded 520bps YoY to 53.7%, supported by improved operating efficiency. ONGC's outlook is reinforced by its offshore exploration successes, notably the Vajramani' prospectus and Suryamani' pool discovery, highlighting its exploration *over or under performance to benchmark index led growth potential. Production from the PY-3 field along with special dispensation...

New Well Gas (NWG) expected at 2.6bcm in FY26 with sharply lower oil price realization of USD66.1/bbl in Q1 vs USD73.7/bbl in Rs322bn). EBITDA of Rs186.6bn (-2% QoQ) was in-line with our estimate of 187.6bn & consensus of Rs182bn. Lower DDA/write-offs of Rs80bn vs Rs111bn in the previous quarter was partially countered by lower other income of...

Bangladesh. Total other expenditure stood at Rs16.9bn against Rs16bn in Q4FY25 and Rs14.5bn in Q1FY25. Due to the higher other expenditure, EBITDA declined 19% QoQ to Rs16.1bn (Ple Rs24.4bn, BBGe Rs22.8bn) despite only 9%...

realization and flat gas realization combined with growth in oil sales, sales grew by 2.8% QoQ. However, higher other expenditure led to EBITDA of Rs19.8bn, -7% QoQ (PLe Rs20.9bn, consensus Rs22.7bn). Lower than expected...

Oil India’s (OINL) 4QFY25 revenue came in 7% above our estimate at INR55.2b (flat YoY), as both oil and gas sales stood above our est. Oil realization was USD74.9/bbl (vs our estimate of USD75.9/bbl).

OIL India delivered a relatively muted Q3, with a 4%/23% YoY decline in standalone EBITDA/PAT to INR 22.6/INR 12.2bn, missing I-Sec’s estimates of INR 25.9/INR 16.2bn. Higher forex loss, lower other income and marginally lower gas realisations dragged earnings in Q3. Consol.

Oil India clocked Q3FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.3bn – a 5% miss, mainly on the 3% revenue miss due to lower realizations, crude sales. SA PAT of Rs12.2bn missed our estimates by 19% on lower Other Income.

ONGC’s Q3FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.4bn, a 4% beat to our estimate, mainly led by higher-than-expected revenues. RPAT at Rs82.4bn was a 4% miss on higher DD&A; and lower other income.

ONGC’s 3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate at INR189.7b, as crude oil/gas sales came in line. Both crude oil and natural gas production trends were flat QoQ.

ONGC’s Q2FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.3bn, a 9% beat to our estimate, led by lower-than-expected survey-dry wells expense and levies.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR182b (flat YoY) in 2QFY25, in line with our estimate. PAT was 30% above our estimate, mainly aided by higherother income.

Oil India clocked Q2FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.8bn – an 11% miss, mainly due to higher provisions and lower-than-expected output.

Less downstream demand due to a maintenance shutdown kept Oil India’s Q2 operational results muted. Ahead, we expect strong volume growth in the oil & gas segment.

Amid weak crude oil prices, the share price of Oil India (OINL) has declined 22% in the last 5 weeks. However, we reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.