Buy

Strong FCF in Demand has picked up since Dec19, which gives hope of volume growth recovering to 6-7% YoY in FY21. Regionally, demand is currently doing best in the East (up >10% YoY) and the West, while it is the worst in the South (declining 8-10% YoY). Demand in the South is expected to recover as the Polavaram project has been re-tendered (which should drive demand in Telangana). UTCEM is currently falling short of grinding capacity in the East (given strong demand growth there), which should be addressed 12-15 months down the line when its planned 3.4mtpa capacities get commissioned. We estimate decline in net debt to ~INR125b (1.1x) in FY21 led by strong free cash flow (FCF) of INR70b (~6% yield) in FY21E (v/s INR20b in FY19). UTCEM is also looking to divest non-core assets associated with the Binani acquisition (China cement plant, UAE grinding unit and Europe fiberglass business), which is expected to fetch INR10b (5% of net debt).