Buy

Happy Forgings (HFL)’s Q2FY26 performance exceeded our estimate on all fronts. While domestic farm/PV/industrials continue to do well, HFL’s domestic CV biz. may likely gain strength ahead. Weak macro scenario continues to weigh on HFL’s exports.

Strategic qualitative initiatives to drive growth: AIA witnessed a Mining conversion strategy to lead volume growth recovery: AIA has had a key breakthrough in its mining conversion strategy. It has bagged its maiden order worth $32.9 million (~291 crore) from a leading copper mining international company in Chile for the supply of high-chrome grinding media, strengthening AIA's foothold in the world's largest copper market, reinforcing confidence in volume recovery and earnings growth from FY27E onward. AIA's volume declined 14% over FY24-25 to 255000...

Happy Forgings’ (HFL) 2QFY26 PAT at INR734m was largely in line with our estimate. The key highlight of 2Q was its record high margins at 30.7% (+150bp YoY) in a weak demand environment, especially in exports.

About the stock: AIA Engineering (AIA) is India's largest manufacturer and supplier of high chrome wear, corrosion and abrasion resistance castings used in cement, mining and thermal power plants (or mills). Products include tube mill internals (grinding media, shell liners,...

Lower than our Rs 669m estimate, MM Forgings’ Q1 EBITDA slipped 13% y/y to Rs625m due to more-than-expected other expenses. We expect 6% revenue/ EBITDA CAGRs each over FY25-28.

Happy Forgings’ (HFL)’s Q1FY26 performance was broadly in line with our estimates. HFL continued to outperform peers in Q1. While PV / industrial / domestic farm segment continues to do well, domestic CV may likely pick up going ahead.

Happy Forgings (HFL) is a leading manufacturer of complex, heavy-forged and precision-machined components. HFL’s focus on enhancing its capabilities has helped expand the company’s product portfolio and customer base across diverse segments (CV, PV, farm, OHV, industrials) and geographies.

Lower our Rs819m estimate due to less-than-expected revenues, MM Forgings’ Q4 EBITDA slipped 4% y/y to Rs724m. Growth would be supported by the domestic M&H CV volume upswing, which would come at a 5% CAGR over FY25-27 on economic activity and replacement demand.

Happy Forgings (HFL)’s 2QFY25 result was encouraging as it reported a healthy EBITDA margin of 29.2% (+190bp YoY, est. 28%) led by a higher mix of machining and industrial segment.

Broadly in line with our Rs774m estimate, MM Forgings’ Q2 EBITDA grew a healthy 7% y/y to Rs769m. We reckon the domestic M&H CV volume uptrend would hold at a 5% CAGR over FY24-27.

Adjusted PBT at Rs 126.3 crore was in line estimates, but APAT missed estimates on higher tax provisions.

We initiate coverage on AIA Engineering ltd with a “BUY” recommendation and a target price
of Rs 5,106/- per share. AIAE currently trades at 31X its EV/EBITDA Multiple. The company
holds a strong position in a duopoly market.

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd (RKFL) missed revenue estimates by 5.8% but due to in-line adjusted margin
on a healthy rise in gross margins, APAT too met estimates.

4QFY24 results were operationally in line with our expectations, while
higher ‘other income’ and lower tax led to PAT beat at INR658m (est.
INR607m), up by 30% YoY. Happy Forgings (HFL) maintains its focus on
diversifying into industrials and exports, which contributed ~12%/20% of
FY24 revenue, compared to 4%/12% in FY23.

Reported EBITDA margin at 22.7% against an estimate of 23.4%