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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    02 Dec 2016
    Auto companies hit by lower sales, officials recommend breaking up Coal India

    Auto companies hit by lower sales, officials recommend breaking up Coal India

    • A big monopoly may be coming to an end, as government officials looking at India's energy demands are recommending the break-up of Coal India, according to Reuters. Government officials have recommended that the company be broken up into seven separate firms, to improve its competitiveness and efficiency. Coal India has been struggling under lower domestic demand, falling quality and coal imports. The government's recommendations however, would mean immediate resistance from the 350,000 people strong unions representing the company's employees. 

    • Lines grow longer at ATMs with salary payouts, with banks and ATMs running dry, people protesting outside bank doors, and banks individually setting withdrawal limits at cash counters of under Rs. 10,000 to meet demand. The new 500 rupee notes are not yet available, and the situation has been complicated by some companies paying their employees in old notes, resulting in queues to exchange these as well. In the meantime the numbers coming in from auto companies suggest a clear impact of de-monetization. Sales at Mahindra & Mahindra are down 38.8% in November compared to October, and at Tata Motors sales are down 28.4%. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Dr. Reddy's, which has gained in technical scores and is currently above all SMAs. The company launched an anti-cancer generic earlier this month in the US.

    • Photo of the day: Emma Morano, said to be the world's oldest person, blows out the candles on her cake on her 117th birthday. Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2016
    Jio's All You Can Eat Buffet: it's not a Happy New Year for Airtel and Idea

    Jio's All You Can Eat Buffet: it's not a Happy New Year for Airtel and Idea

    Before Reliance Jio made its announcement today, commentators were expecting that the company would end the free introductory service for users. But Jio has sprung a surprise and announced that the company would extend its free services offer to new customers till March 31st, 2017.

    The impact on the competition was immediately visible: as Mukesh Ambani started speaking, Idea and Bharti Airtel saw shares plunge.  Existing Reliance Jio customers will be shifted to this new plan as well, which is named the ‘Happy New Year Plan’.

    Free services till March 31st means that Jio will end the financial year with a big subscriber number that includes free subscribers, with no dropoff. This also means that shares of Idea and Airtel - which had begun creeping up last week in expectation of free Jio services ending, - will continue to take a beating. Ambani reserved some bile for Airtel, Idea and Vodafone, saying that the Jio rivals have blocked 900 crore calls from the Jio network. The drop rate however, has come down to 20% from 90% at the time of launch, he said. 

    Besides the immediate headline of free services, Reliance Jio is working to rapidly build other advantages over its competition. It is providing under 5 minute activation and an e-KYC service to verify ID through Aadhaar, making it easier for a customer to quickly get a working connection. While both Airtel and Idea have also launched e-KYC verification services, Reliance has the highest coverage so far across 200,000 Reliance Jio outlets. Jio, Ambani says, will double this footprint to 400,000 stores by the time the free offers end in March. 

    Where does this leave Airtel and Idea? Airtel, the market leader, is better placed to get through Jio's salvo to capture market share: it is comfortably placed as far as spectrum and market share is concerned. Idea however, has higher debt on its balance sheet, more limited spectrum and is constrained in cutting prices to combat Jio. Analysts have speculated that Idea may even exit the tower business to reduce the debt burden on its financials.

    The winners for the foreseeable future are definitely the customers, for whom its raining free data. Jio said that data consumption among its customers is 30 times the average on other networks, reminding one of what happens when you are offered an all you can eat buffet. 

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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2016
    Modi launches an online marketplace for government purchases

    Modi launches an online marketplace for government purchases

    • People trying to withdraw their salaries this week are as predicted, stuck with long lines and empty ATMs, with money supply in the banking system a fifth of its usual capacity. The All India Bank Employees’ Association has sought police protection at bank branches for the next 10 days, as they expect queues full of annoyed customers. While the demonetization move remains popular and the PM has high approval ratings, an alternate circulation of old notes is emerging in old markets such as Janpath, where retailers say they have no choice but to accept old currency notes after sales fell up to 80%. Economists are expecting the impact of the move to continue for several quarters, with at least some downside for GDP growth in the coming months. 

    • The government has appointed a panel of ministers across party lines to steer India's economy towards more cashless and digital transactions over the next one year. The panel is led by Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu. It has also been tasked with "communicating" the benefits of a digital economy to people across the country.

    • PM Modi has also launched an Amazon-like marketplace for all government purchases, to make such purchases fully digital and reduce corruption in public spending. The marketplace has been live since August, and sells products from laptops and mobile phones to cement.

    • Stock in spotlight: Tata Power, which has cut losses at its Mundra plant, reported a profit of Rs. 336 crore for the September quarter, compared to last year's quarter when it lost Rs. 96 crore. The company has gained from high coal prices. 

    • Photo of the day: Queue management, as a bank employee in Dharavi distributes tokens to people standing in line. Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    30 Nov 2016
    More exits at Flipkart, RBI announces new withdrawal limit for Jan Dhan accounts

    More exits at Flipkart, RBI announces new withdrawal limit for Jan Dhan accounts

    • The RBI has announced a monthly withdrawal limit of Rs. 10,000 from Jan Dhan accounts. Any additional amount required, the Central Bank said, will be issued and documented by banks on a case by case basis. Finance Minister Jaitley noted that the step was taken because the government suspected these accounts were being used to launder money. In the meantime Sensex began to show hints of recovery, rising for the fourth day in a row. Analysts say that they are expecting the cash situation to fully stabilize in four to six weeks. However salary payouts and withdrawals starting beginning of December is likely to lengthen queues at banks and ATMs. 

    • A senior engineering head at Flipkart is departing the startup to join Airbnb, while the head of Flipkart's yet to begin private label business has also departed the company, in the wake of seven high-profile exits previously in 2016. Flipkart saw better festival sales compared to Amazon, but Morgan Stanley once again cut its Flipkart share valuation this week. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Essel Propack, which has hit a new 52 week high. The company's recent Q2 results announced end October showed net profits up 27%.

    • Photo of the day: Hindus in Kathmandu, Nepal light oil lamps in honor of the recently departed at the Bagmati River. Narendra Shrestha/The Guardian

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2016
    Jaitley gives black money holders another chance to declare assets, Tata Steel signs letter of intent to sell off UK units

    Jaitley gives black money holders another chance to declare assets, Tata Steel signs letter of intent to sell off UK units

    • FM Arun Jaitley has announced a new scheme for black money holders to declare assets post-demonetization, under which the individual would have to pay 50% of the disclosed amount as tax. 25% of the money would also have to be deposited in a non-interest earning account for four years - an additonal requirement that seems focused on easing the liquidity situation and NPA ratios for Indian banks. Rs. 8.4 trillion has already been deposited since the demonetization announcement, more than half of the estimated old notes in circulation. According to the RBI, the total withdrawals amounted to Rs. 2.16 trillion from bank accounts and ATMs.

    • In the meantime a Reuters survey found that India's GDP grew at 7.5% in the July-September quarter, but the impact of demonetization is likely to see a pullback in growth in the coming months, with customers cutting spending and rural economies thrown out of gear.

    • Stock in spotlight: Tata Steel, which has gained over 94% from its 52 week low and is currently above all SMAs. The company  announced yesterday that O P Bhatt, former SBI head, would be its interim Chairman, replacing Cyrus Mistry. Bhatt was head when SBI cleared a $1 billion loan for the Tatas "in five minutes" for the acquisition of Corus Steel. Corus - now Tata Steel UK - is reeling and has signed a letter of intent, for purchase by the Liberty House Group for 100 million pounds. Tata Steel UK invested 1.5 billion pounds of capital into its business over the past nine years.

    • Photo of the day: A man puts his debit card back into a wallet printed to look like the banned 1000 rupee note. Jayanta Dey/Reuters India

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2016

    The forgotten role of the Company Board of Directors

    In the past weeks, the crisis at a high profile Indian conglomerate has resulted in plenty of coverage surrounding board decisions, and battles for control. Company boards are rarely in focus in media: usually it is the CEO and other senior officers that are at the forefront in discussions of company performance and objectives.

    The recent coverage of Tata Sons' board tussles therefore, highlights an unfortunate truth that experts have long highlighted, but usually goes unnoticed in media - company boards are often damaged entities, the focus of infighting, allegiance battles, and tests for loyalty.

    The problem with boards is borne out by broader data. They are rarely effective in what they are meant for, which is reviewing and improving company performance. Experts point out that board decisions are in fact,perfunctory and fail to shape the company's strategic direction. In one McKinsey study, when asked who was responsible for a short-term focus on company results over long-term value, 47% of senior management surveyed pointed to the board of directors. 

    The forgotten role of the Board

    So far, in the Tata Sons drama, a series of unfortunate events have played out. Cyrus Mistry, the Tata Sons Chairman appointed in 2011, gets unceremoniously fired, but then goes on record threatening legal action against Tata Sons, and points out  a 'shadow Chairman' pulling the strings in board decisions: former Chairman Ratan Tata. Recordings of a board meeting requested by Mistry go missing. Independent directors are cornered and their allegiances questioned. Efforts begin to oust Mistry from individual Tata companies.

    In addition, some disturbing conflicts of interest arose. Right before the move to fire Mistry, two new directors (Ajay Piramal and Venu Srinivasan) were appointed to the Tata Sons board. Mistry's replacement O P Bhatt, the proposed new Chairman of Tata Steel, was the head of SBI when the bank had notoriously cleared a $1 billion loan in five minutes to Tata Steel, for the cost of acquiring Corus. The ties between India's biggest lender and the Tata group of companies were already incestuous - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has been an information technology (IT) services provider to SBI, and has implemented its Core Banking System as well its operational support.

    Mistry insists that the efforts to oust him started when he tried to introduce more transparency around the role of Tata Trusts in the company, as well as clarify the role of various directors at Tata Sons and the group of companies. Tata Sons has contested this.

    But across the world, the legal codes for company boards stress two major aspects: loyalty (placing the company's interests ahead of one's own) and prudence (applying proper care, skill and diligence to business decisions). In the case of Tata Sons, the absence of prudence by the board is clear from the outset: a Chairman's decisions need board ratification, and the  decisions to sell failing businesses and cost-cutting are ones that needed board approval. Why then, allege these as key reasons to fire the Chairman?

    The company board is meant to be an enforcer of quality governance in the company, and the entity focused on creating long term value to shareholders.What we see instead, is a devalued body that is politicized and overtly controlled by one or two influential officers of the company. This becomes a significant problem when it comes to realigning a company under a new CEO/management, or adapting to more competitive markets.

    In the case of Tata Sons, the dissatisfaction against Mistry apparently rose from his willingness to cut out what he saw as flailing businesses of the company, including showcase projects such as the Nano car. Mistry's counter-accusations after he was fired have emphasized the lack of company focus on shareholder value, with the former Chairman intent on retaining his influence. 

    The problem of the 'independent director'

    Only 14% of the 692 directors and executives McKinsey surveyed in 2014 picked a "reputation for independent thinking" as among the main criteria boards considered while appointing new directors.The way directors are appointed today tends to pack boards with generalists and loyalists, who don't have relevant industry expertise and therefore cannot comment effectively on the direction of the company, or point out obsolete businesses and ways to stay ahead of the competition. This devalues the board further, turning it into a rubber stamp for the officer it favors. 

    The issues of corporate governance, the influence of senior officers and board independence are of great concern in an environment where Indian companies across Pharma, IT, textiles and other sectors are drawingattention from international regulators like the FDA and US Justice Department for their business practices and corporate governance norms.

    At the same time, Indian banks are struggling today with bad loans - the consequences of decades of cronyism and and lending of large amounts of money to companies based on personal relationships and influence. Perhaps the biggest, most necessary outcome from this public battle in the Tata Group is a re-examination of our corporate governance norms, to examine how to move forward with improved disclosure, due diligence and transparency. The current scenario suggests that there is much work to be done. 

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2016
    India's IT companies turn towards US hires, with Trump administration likely to tamp down on H1B

    India's IT companies turn towards US hires, with Trump administration likely to tamp down on H1B

    • India's IT companies are looking to speed up their acquisitions in the US, and increase hiring from American colleges to combat new norms that are likely from the incoming US administration. Trump has promised to tighten outsourcing and visa rules within his first 100 days. Signs that the new government is likely to follow through is reflected in the President Elect's pick for Attorney General - Jeff Sessions, who has repeatedly criticised the H1B visa program in the past and suggested doing away with it entirely. The move to reduce guest workers travelling from India to the US is set to impact operating margins of Indian IT, as they realign towards local hiring. 

    • Small-time financers in the informal lending markets are reeling under demonetization and with the drying up of funds. These rural moneylenders typically do daily lending to farmers and traders, and are struggling with large amounts of old notes they are unable to exchange and use with limits on withdrawals, and the long queues at rural banks.  

    • Stock in spotlight: The pharma company Jubiliant LifeSciences, which has received approvals for generic versions of high blood pressure medication, and is now seeking shareholder approval to raise an additional Rs. 1000 crore. The stock has gained 92.8% in the past six months. 

    • Photo of the day: Contestants pose during a beard and mustache competition in Bangalore. Kiran Manjunath/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    27 Nov 2016
    Research reports this week: November 20 - 27

    Research reports this week: November 20 - 27

    Over 20 research reports this week, with 12 BUY reports. Stockpick of the week from brokers is National Buildings Construction, which received a BUY recommendation from ICICI Securities and a target upgrade from Reliance Securities. The stock has gained 39.7% from its 52 week low. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-11-24National Buildings Construct.. 280.0023.70%Buy226.35ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-11-24Zee Entertainment Enterprise.. 530.0020.50%Buy439.85ICICI Securities Limited 2x
    1x
    2016-11-23Suprajit Engineering Limited 231.0022.13%Buy189.15HDFC Securities 1x
    1x
    2016-11-23Larsen & Toubro(L&T) Limited 1634.0019.30%Buy1369.70HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-23Birla Corporation Limited 759.0013.39%Buy669.35Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-23IRB Infrastructure Developer.. 235.0026.04%Hold186.45ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-23Siyaram Silk Mills Limited 1330.008.57%Hold1225.00ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2016-11-22The India Cements Limited 175.0048.75%Buy117.65ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-22NHPC Limited 28.003.32%Hold27.10ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-11-22Cummins India Limited 645.0016.78%Sell775.05CD Equisearch 1x
    2016-11-21Techno Electric & Engineerin.. 371.0021.24%Buy306.00HDFC Securities
    2016-11-21V-Guard Industries Limited 234.0035.65%Buy172.50HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-11-21Voltas Limited 351.0016.23%Buy302.00HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-21Atul Auto Limited 511.0014.75%Buy445.30Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2016-11-21Greaves Cotton Limited 167.0033.60%Buy125.00Chola Wealth Direct
    2016-11-21Bajaj Finserv Limited 3500.0017.92%Buy2968.00Dynamic Levels 1x
    2016-11-21Rupa & Company Limited --%-260.85ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-21Gujarat Gas Limited 570.007.56%Hold529.95ICICI Securities Limited
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    The Baseline
    25 Nov 2016
    Real, fake, overhyped? The power of viral stories

    Real, fake, overhyped? The power of viral stories

    Does important news always trend? We are learning that this does not happen: social media optimizes for engagement, and the result is that clickbait and dramatic headlines get maximum value. Social media is defining the headlines people see and read, especially at a time when over half of all Indian users online use Facebook, and 60% use Whatsapp.

    Forwarding and sharing content on these platforms is extremely easy, and the result is that the news you see is what is amplified by everybody else. Facebook favors some items over others in the newsfeed, with its algorithm deciding what goes on top based on clicks and interactions. Whatsapp has what your friends are sharing.

    The result is three major effects:

    Missing out on important news: People tend to share news that they can personally relate to. For example, since demonetization Facebook feeds have been filled with news about queuesat ATMs and banks, but there was little attention on social media to the news of the sinking rupee.

    The first news item is something users are seeing and directly experiencing, while the headline about the falling rupee - and the RBI intervening to halt its tumble - gets little notice beyond market watchers. It's too abstract, and there is no hook. It doesn't directly impact most people's lives today, even though the news is ringing alarm bells about money flows out of the country, and broader pessimism about India's economic health. Policy and economic news in particular gets the short shrift in the 'viral news' environment. 

    Overhyped accurate news: A few weeks ago pharma stocks took a significant beating in the stock market, based on news that Indian generics had been named in investigations by the US Justice Department on price-fixing. Stocks like Sun Pharma fell as much 11% during trading, a reaction that was probably unwarranted on close reading of the news and reports: none of the Indian pharma were directly named for collusion, but received a sub poena to testify on pricing along with many others.

    The investigation was being pushed by the Democrat senator Bernie Sanders in the midst of a heated Presidential election campaign, a season during which one of the big news headlines was the rising price of an certain essential anti-allergy drug, the EpiPen. Price-fixing is notoriously difficult to prove in the best of circumstances, and in this case pharma companies pointed out that price hikes responded to competitor hikes because patients receiving such medication were price-insensitive, since these drugs are subsidized/insured. The headlines emphasized none of these, and the words investigation, 'Justice Department' and so on were enough to send Indian pharma stocks reeling.   

    The worst of all, active misinformation: Times like demonetization and election campaigns - whether in India or the US - are most effective for the spread of viral, fake news. There was for example, the fake news item that Modi was a 'sweeper' during his youth, and more recently rumors shared across Whatsapp that the government was going to bring back old 500 and 1000 notes, or that the 'government' was confiscating gold people took to jewelry shops to sell. Another trend particularly on Whatsapp, has been fake stock tips, driven by unscrupulous entities looking to make a quick buck on a penny stock by convincing other people to buy in.

    It's hard to address the first two problems. Tabloid journalism is here to stay for a reason: celebrities, sports events, cats doing somersaults and relatable news will always get the most eyeballs. Media competition means aggressive headlines, and markets will react accordingly.

    The third, most venal form of news however, needs serious consideration and action, because it systematically undermines fact in favor of farbicated headlines and propaganda. SEBI recently released a consultation paper suggesting that stock tips and trading discussions be banned on social media entirely, a blunt system that also endangers free speech. Addressing the issue of fake news successfully would require measures taken by the big internet firms - Google and Facebook. Few people check to verify the news they receive, so the only way to limit the sharing of such items is to make it less financially viable - by removing such news from services such as Google Adsense - and deleting/flagging such news items.

    This brings to the fore what exactly, counts as 'fact' versus 'fiction'. This is complicated to assess - websites like Snopes have a grading system that is not black and white - including estimates like 'mostly false' and 'mixed'. But this would still help with the Pants On Fire stories - the ones that come with a damaging agenda, are highly polarizing, mislead readers, and in the worst situations, scam them out of their money. 

    Photo: The recently concluded election season in the US saw more engagement for fake news than real news on Facebook. Buzzfeed

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    The Baseline
    25 Nov 2016
    Government wants state owned companies to take on bad loans, RBI keeps intervening to halt rupee slide

    Government wants state owned companies to take on bad loans, RBI keeps intervening to halt rupee slide

    • The RBI has continued to intervene in morning trading to shield the rupee from a further slide against the dollar. Sentiment in markets has turned against the rupee, the pessimism driven by the trifecta of a rising dollar, outflows as FIIs move money back to the US, and worry around the effects of demonetization on the economy. The rupee had fallen to a near record low of Rs. 68.86 yesterday against the dollar, reviving as the RBI came into the market, selling dollars to boost the rupee. 

    • Regulations implemented in the last couple of years by the RBI have forced banks to disclose the large NPAs on their balance sheets. In 2014, RBI Governor Rajan had remarked, 'An NPA by any other name smells as bad', while compelling bankers to make greater disclosures. Now the government is scrambling to address these disclosed bad loans weighing on the banks, and is according to Reuters, pushing state-owned companies like SAIL in sectors like steel, shipping and power to take up the bad loans of private companies that are weighing on the banks and limiting bank ability to lend. So far, the scheme has yet to find takers.

    • Stock in spotlight: Berger Paints, which is among the top gainers, up 12.4% this week after falling by 18% over the past month. 

    • Photo of the day: A demonstration by workers from the Opposition in Ahmedabad against demonetization, where they poured milk on the street. Reuters/Amit Dave

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