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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    18 Dec 2016
    Research Report Summary for the week: Dec 11-18

    Research Report Summary for the week: Dec 11-18

    Over 25 stock reports landed this week! Stock of choice among analysts is GAIL India, which had struggled in previous quarters due to lower gas volumes as well as a plunge in profits for petrochem. The stock looks better positioned thanks to higher crude prices, and a planned increase in transmission tariffs. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-16DLF Limited 153.0036.91%Buy111.75HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2016-12-16MBL Infrastructures Limited 75.006.46%Buy70.45Reliance Securities
    2016-12-16KSK Energy Ventures Limited 37.00103.30%Buy18.20Reliance Securities
    2016-12-16Balkrishna Industries Limited 1267.0014.25%Hold1109.00Karvy 1x
    2016-12-16Suprajit Engineering Limited 230.0018.56%Buy194.00Karvy 1x
    1x
    2016-12-16NMDC Limited 125.00-1.96%Hold127.50ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-12-15Gujarat Mineral Development .. 125.0032.70%Buy94.20HDFC Securities
    2016-12-15CESC Limited 695.0011.33%Buy624.25Way2Wealth and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-12-15Coal India Limited 319.0010.69%Buy288.20Reliance Securities and 1 other3x
    2016-12-15Adani Ports and Special Econ.. 330.0017.82%Buy280.10Axis Direct 1x
    2016-12-15Axis Bank Limited --%-472.75Axis Direct and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-12-15J.Kumar Infraprojects Limited 300.0045.60%Buy206.05Axis Direct and 1 other
    2016-12-15Tata Elxsi Limited 1455.00-%-1446.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-15Jagran Prakashan Limited 190.0015.15%Buy165.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-14GAIL (India) Limited 515.0024.10%Buy415.00HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-12-14PNC Infratech Limited 126.0019.94%Buy105.05HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2016-12-14JK Cement Limited --%-687.00Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-12-14Britannia Industries Limited 3155.009.03%Hold2893.65Karvy 3x
    4x
    2016-12-13Godrej Consumer Products Lim.. 1610.008.92%NEUT.1478.10Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-12Prestige Estates Projects Li.. 222.0032.62%Buy167.40HDFC Securities
    2016-12-12Alkem Laboratories Limited 1800.0012.08%NEUT.1606.05Motilal Oswal 1x
    2016-12-12Bajaj Finance Limited 1053.0023.81%NEUT.850.50Motilal Oswal 1x
    2016-12-12V-Guard Industries Limited 210.0022.84%Buy170.95Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    2016-12-12Atul Limited 2530.0021.05%ACC.2090.00CD Equisearch 1x
    2016-12-12Steel Authority of India Lim.. 56.007.07%Hold52.30ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
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    The Baseline
    16 Dec 2016
    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization has changed how I spend'

    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization has changed how I spend'

    This week on our MyMoney series, Siddhartha Sundaram,  who works at a consulting firm in Bangalore, talks about his spending habits and saving goals.

    "After graduating as an engineer, I've been working at a consulting firm for a little more than 2 years now. I don't save anywhere close to how much I actually should. I try to save up at least 20 - 23k a month. I remember being very proud one month of hitting a 27k target in savings.

    Occasionally I have saved with a particular goal in mind. A year ago I wanted to buy a desktop computer, and I started with some research on what I wanted versus what I could afford. When you are on a budget, the hunt is part of the fun. The PC I wanted was Dell's Alienware, which is pretty expensive. After reading up and exploring PC forums online, I finally found a way to build a computer with the same specifications as the Alienware model. That turned out much cheaper.  

    I'm far from frugal and tend to splurge on silly purchases. I notice that I drop a big sum of money when I'm traveling, not just in tickets to the place, but also activities and food. It's the rationalization of 'having a good experience' that helps deal with the guilt when I look at my bank balance at the end of the trip. 

    Demonetization has changed my spending behavior a bit. While it has stopped me from frivolous small-cash spends, it's also forcing me to swipe my card everywhere, which means I am choosing more expensive places. So instead of spending 60 rupees in cash at the road-side momo stand, I'm using my card to spend 180 rupees on an over-priced, mediocre corn and cheese sandwich at a chain cafe.  I prefer cash because it's easier to know exactly how much you're spending when you're pulling notes out of your wallet. But when you're swiping your card everywhere, you end up losing track and spending more." 

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    The Baseline
    16 Dec 2016
    Uber close to a profit in India markets, says CEO Kalanick

    Uber close to a profit in India markets, says CEO Kalanick

    • Ola's cries for protectionism from the Indian government have a reason behind it: Uber India is reportedly close to finally seeing profits in the Indian market. Uber CEO Travis Kalanick was in India Thursday, visiting an Asian market that has become increasingly critical to the company's future growth after it folded operations in China. Uber, Kalanick said, is now seeing a path to profitability. The company had invested over $1 billion dollars in India last year. 

    • Ratan Tata is to step down as Chairman of the Tata Trusts. The trusts have been one of the flashpoints in the public fight between Mistry and the Tata group, with the ex-Chairman of Tata Sons alleging that Ratan Tata used the Trusts as a separate power centre to control business decisions and influence directors. The successor, one trustee said, would be selected only after working alongside Ratan Tata for a while - which leaves open the possibility that Ratan Tata will continue to influence decisions from the outside.  UPDATE: Tata Sons clarifies that this process is only being put in place, for when Ratan Tata decides to step down. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Aurobindo Pharma is flailing in markets today after being named in a suit filed by US attorneys for its alleged involvement in price-fixing of the generic drug glyburide, which treats diabetes.  

    • Photo of the day: A hunter releases his golden eagle during training in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    15 Dec 2016
    Is the Mistry over?: Cyrus versus the Tata group shareholders

    Is the Mistry over?: Cyrus versus the Tata group shareholders

    Mistry is fighting a battle of attrition now with the shareholders of the Tata group companies. As of Wednesday night, Mistry was removed from the Tata Teleservices board and Chairmanship, days after he was ousted as director of TCS, and voted out of Tata Industries. 

    Tata Sons has also increased its stake in Tata Motors up from 26.98% to 28.71% ahead of the Dec 22 EGM scheduled to remove Mistry from the board. 

    Mistry's fate does not look good in the coming EGMs. 

    Even though India Hotels' independent directors had unanimously expressed their support for him earlier in November, as had Tata Chemicals, the shareholder voting trends are not in his favor. While Tata Sons has a smaller stake in the other group companies, minority shareholders voted against Mistry in the Tata Teleservices EGM on Wednesday, making it easier for minority shareholders elsewhere to do the same. The growing consensus forming against Mistry among shareholders has been that he has "behaved immaturely" and hurt the companies badly in the market.

    In the meantime an independent director, Nusli Wadia, said yesterday that Tata Sons tried to "illegally coerce" directors to influence voting in their direction. The markets have reacted negatively so far to Mistry's exit, likely at least in part due to the corporate governance issues he raised, and Mistry's public stance as reformer. TCS’s shares have fallen 9.4% since Mistry’s ouster.

    CompanyTata Sons holdingMistry - out or in?Shareholder vote
    Tata Industries54%Out - on December 12'Unanimous'
    TCS73%Out - on December 1393.11% voted against Mistry
    Tata Teleservices36.17%Out - on December 14 'Unanimous'
    Tata Global Beverages23.5%Out as Chairman, still DirectorEGM TBD. 7 out of 10 directors voted to remove Mistry as Chairman.
    Tata Steel29.75%Out as Chairman, still DirectorEGM on Dec 21
    India Hotels28.01%Director and ChairmanEGM on Dec 20
    Tata Motors28.71%Director and ChairmanEGM on Dec 22. Employees Union says it has 'lost confidence' in Mistry
    Tata Chemicals19.35%Director and ChairmanEGM on Dec 23
    Tata Power 31.05%Director and ChairmanEGM on Dec 26

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    The Baseline
    15 Dec 2016
    Wadia attacks Tata Sons in letter, US Fed hikes rates

    Wadia attacks Tata Sons in letter, US Fed hikes rates

    • The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates on Wednesday by 25 bps, and signalled more rate hikes are coming - three in the coming year as opposed to two, as expected earlier. The change in policy will impact developing markets such as India, as some investors bring money back to the US to take advantage of the higher interest rates.  

    • Even as Nusli Wadia accuses Tata Sons of coercing independent directors into voting in their favor, Livemint has accessed Tata Sons letters and documents.

    • The documents apparently show that Tata Sons sought legal advice on whether it was "necessary for the company to disclose to stock exchanges all the conclusions arrived at in every meeting of its independent directors." 

    • Stock in spotlight:Gruh Finance, which has seen high gains over the last day, and is among the top score gainers this week. 

    • Photo of the day: A man takes a photo of a hot-air balloon over Cairo, Egypt. Amr Dalsh/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    14 Dec 2016
    New feature update: shareholding change screeners

    New feature update: shareholding change screeners

    As part of our effort to bring better stock analysis to investors, we have added shareholding change screeners to our site. The shareholding change screeners show you which stocks have seen shareholding changes by FIIs/FPIs, mutual funds and other institutions.The screeners also let you see which companies have stocks recently bought and sold by promoters, as well as firms where promoters have pledged their stocks (not a good sign for the company).

    Screener examples

    Promoters increasing their shareholding in the company - positive for a stock

    The promoter shareholding increase screener shows the stocks where promoters have increased their stakes by the biggest amount. Such companies by the end of September 2016, included Ambuja Cements, Indian Overseas Bank, Dewan Housing Finance and Syndicate Bank. Such increases by promoters are generally considered positive for the stock, since this indicates that senior shareholders are bullish about the company. A similar screener also shows decreases in promoter shareholding. 

    Promoters pledging their shares in the company - bad for a stock

    The promoter share pledge increase screener shows the stocks where shares pledged by promoters to pay debts, meet funding expenses, etc has increased. Such companies by the end of September 2016, included JBF Industries, Religare Enterprises, Indus Ind Bank, and Lycos Internet. Such pledges by promoters are bad for stocks since price declines can potentially trigger a margin call. 

    Changes in shareholding by mutual funds

    Separate screeners are available for shareholding changes by DIIs and FIIs. Decrease in mutual fund shareholding for example, shows us that MFs decreased their holdings in L&T, Bharat Financial, and Axis Bank among others. The full list of these screeners is here. Happy browsing!

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    The Baseline
    14 Dec 2016
    Inflation falls as customers cut spending; Mistry ousted as TCS director

    Inflation falls as customers cut spending; Mistry ousted as TCS director

    • Lower spending by customers after demonetization has sent two year inflation to a new low, with prices rising just 3.63% in the past month. People across the country have curbed their spending except for essential requirements, as the shortage of cash has yet to ease. In the meantime about 80% of the estimated old notes - Rs. 18.4 trillion - has been returned to Indian banks, according to the RBI. The global rating agency Standard & Poor, assessing the situation, said that demonetization along with GST would have long term positive effects, widening the tax base and improving India's financial health. 

    • About 93% of TCS shareholders voted to oust Cyrus Mistry as a director in the EGM, an unsurprising result considering that Tata Sons owns 73% of the company. However, 78% of voting shareholders who were not promoters or institutional holders voted against Mistry's ouster.

    • Stock in spotlight: Ambuja Cements, where promoters have increased their holdings by 10.8% in the September 2016 quarter.

    • Photo of the day: Artists work on snow sculptures at an exhibition in Harbin. CSN/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    13 Dec 2016
    Axis Bank suspends accounts of gold traders and dealers

    Axis Bank suspends accounts of gold traders and dealers

    • Axis Bank has suspendedthe bank accounts of some gold dealers and jewellers, after the Enforcement Directorate had arrested two of its executives last week for helping customers launder money. The news has come alongside reports of people buying gold at 50% premium above official prices using their unaccounted money. Axis is India's biggest gold importer, and this move is likely to hit gold prices further. The RBI in the meantime has denied reports that the Central Bank was preparing to cancel Axis' licence after these irregularities. 

    • Cyrus Mistry faces a shareholder vote at TCS today, in an EGM to oust Mistry as director of the company. On Monday Mistry was removed as the director and chairman of Tata industries following a vote. TCS had already replaced Mistry as Chairman in early November, with Ishaat Hussain. 

    • Stock in spotlight: NALCO, which is seeing high volume and gain this past week. 

    • Photo of the day: Cyclone Vardah made landfall last night in Tamil Nadu, with heavy winds and rain. A damaged tollbooth near a national highway. Jothi Ramalingam/Hindu

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    The Baseline
    12 Dec 2016
    GST set to miss its April deadline, Tata Sons says Mistry could split the group

    GST set to miss its April deadline, Tata Sons says Mistry could split the group

    • India's landmark tax reform, the GST, looks likely to miss the April deadline set by the government for implementation after yet another meeting between central govt and state officials ended without an agreement on who would control revenues and administration of the tax. The meeting instead reportedly descended into argument over the effects of demonetization on the various states. 

    • Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has frequently targeted India in speeches, on the heavy use by Indian IT companies of H1B visas. While Trump has contradicted himself on 'banning' H1B visas, he recently announced at a rally that one of his first orders would be to investigate visa abuses. Nasscom responded to Trump's comment, saying that such protectionist moves would not create jobs in the US, but would only hurt innovation and result in higher prices. 

    • Tata Sons now claims that the continuation of Cyrus Mistry on company boards could split the group, while Mistry has responded that he has only been trying to save the companies from the "whimsical ineptitude" of Ratan Tata. 

    • Stock in spotlight:TTK Prestige, which has gained 40% overall from its 52 week low. 

    • Photo of the day: A shepherdess walks with her flock of sheep after a day of snow in Turkey. Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

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    The Baseline
    11 Dec 2016

    Research Reports Summary and Stock Pick: Dec 3-11

    25 stock reports landed this week. Stockpick for analysts this week is Bata India, where LIC has upped its stake from 5.02% to 7.05%. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-09Tata Steel Limited 425.00-1.23%Hold430.30ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-08PRIMA PLASTICS LTD. --%-220.00Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-08LIC Housing Finance Limited 671.0018.05%Buy568.40CD Equisearch 1x
    2016-12-07Kolte - Patil Developers Lim.. 144.0046.04%Buy98.60HDFC Securities
    2016-12-07Siemens Limited 1103.00-%-1129.90HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-12-07Bharat Petroleum Corporation.. 671.006.08%Buy632.55Axis Direct and 1 other2x
    2016-12-07Dr. Lal PathLabs Limited 1285.0015.62%Hold1111.40Karvy 1x
    2016-12-07Triveni Turbine Limited 128.007.52%Hold119.05Karvy 1x
    2016-12-06Ashoka Buildcon Limited 210.0039.07%Buy151.00HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-12-06Bata India Limited 483.0013.35%Buy426.10Motilal Oswal 2x
    1x
    2016-12-06Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Lim.. 1040.0015.03%Buy904.10Axis Direct 1x
    2016-12-06Dilip Buildcon Limited 309.0038.01%Buy223.90Axis Direct
    2016-12-06Endurance Technologies Ltd 700.0020.55%Buy580.65Axis Direct
    2016-12-06Mirza International Limited 96.0013.48%Buy84.60Axis Direct
    2016-12-06Simplex Infrastructures Limi.. 307.005.14%Hold292.00Karvy 1x
    2016-12-06Take Solutions Limited --%-144.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-06Dredging Corporation of Indi.. 400.003.39%Hold386.90ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-05Laurus Labs Ltd IPO --%--HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-12-05NCL Industries Limited --%Buy115.00Way2Wealth
    2016-12-05Genus Power Infrastructures .. --%Hold39.55Way2Wealth
    2016-12-05Procter & Gamble Hygiene and.. 8340.0023.53%Buy6751.40Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-05Amara Raja Batteries Limited 1098.0018.40%NEUT.927.35Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2016-12-05SINGER INDIA LTD. --%-214.95ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-05TV Today Network Limited 385.0037.40%Buy280.20Angel Broking
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