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The Baseline created a screener All results declared - …
12 Jul 2022
Stocks whose results have been declared for the June quarter - Q1FY23
 
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Trendlyne Marketwatch
12 Jul 2022
Market closes lower, HDFC Sec maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Avenue Supermarts

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50fell over 150 points and closed 1% lower amid selling pressure towards the end of the trading session. The volatility index, Nifty VIX, rose above 18.5%. European stocks followed the global trend and traded lower than Monday’s levels. Major Asian indices closed lower, tracking the US indices, which closed in the red on Monday. US stocks fell as investors await the crucial inflation print release on Wednesday. The tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100, fell 2.2% while the S&P 500 closed 1.2% lower on Monday. Crude oil fell over concerns about another wave of lockdowns in China as Shanghai discovers first case of Omicron sub-variant.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the red, following the benchmark index. Nifty Pharma and Nifty FMCG closed lower than Monday’s levels. Nifty IT, which fell over 3% on Monday, closed lower tracking the NASDAQ 100, which fell 2.2% on Monday.

Nifty 50closed at 16,058.30 (-157.7, -1.0%), BSE Sensexclosed at 53,886.61 (-508.6, -0.9%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,779.00 (-107.9, -0.8%)

Market breadth is in the red. Of the 1,888 stocks traded today, 744 showed gains, and 1,073 showed losses.

  • KEI Industries, ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India, Kalpataru Power Transmissions, and Fortis Healthcare are trading with higher volumes as compared to Monday.

  • MindTree sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 10.9% with put to call ratio of 0.59.

  • Rail Vikas Nigam rises in trade after the RVNL-SP Singla Constructions consortium receives a letter of acceptance from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the construction of 4 laning of NH-5 from Kaithlighat to Shakral Village in Himachal Pradesh. The total estimated cost of the project is Rs 1,844.77 crore.

  • Stocks like Hinduja Global Solutions, Ceat, Endurance Technologies, and Siemens are in the overbought zone according to the technical indicators relative strength index or RSI and money flow index or MFI.

  • Star Health & Allied Insurance Co rises after announcing its partnership with Common Services Centres (CSC), under the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology. The purpose of this partnership is to provide over 5 lakh CSCs access to Star Health’s insurance products. The company expects this partnership to increase its penetration into rural India and aid in market share growth.

  • Utility stocks like Adani Green Energy, Adani Power, NLC India, NHPC, and JSW Energy, among others, are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index S&P BSE Utilities is also trading in the green.

  • SpiceJet falls after its Managing Director, Ajay Singh, gets booked over allegations of duping a businessman on the pretext of allotting him company shares, according to reports. The complainant Amit Arora says that Ajay gave a fake depository instruction slip (DIS) of shares worth Rs 10 lakh. The company however denies these allegations and plans to file a defamation case against Amit Arora.

  • NMDC is falling as it cuts prices of lump ore and fines by Rs 500 each. Effective from today it sets the price of lump ore at Rs 3,900 per tonne and fines at Rs 2,810 per tonne. This is the second price cut in two months.

  • ITI is trading with more than 20 times its weekly average trading volume. Symphony, HFCL, Indus Towers, and NOCILare trading at more than three times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • HDFC Securities maintains its ‘Sell’ rating on Avenue Supermarts despite the company’s profit rising more than 6X YoY in Q1FY23. The brokerage sets a target price of Rs 2,700, indicating a downside of 31.5%. It remains negative on the prospects of the company given the intense competition it faces in the industry. The company’s footfalls and sales density remaining below pre-pandemic levels is a key concern for the brokerage.

  • Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Reliance Jio and Adani Data Networks to participate in the 5G Spectrum auction, set to commence on July 26.

  • Nomura Singapore buys 12.5 lakh shares (0.6% stake) in BLS International at an average price of Rs 214 per share in a bulk deal on Monday.

  • Ahluwalia Contracts rises after securing a contract of construction work of Amity Campus in Bengaluru worth Rs 150 crore. Total order inflow for the company stands at Rs 863 crore in FY23.

  • Bosch to invest Rs 200 crore in Indian markets over the next five years in building advance technologies and digital mobility space, according to the management. It also plans to support OEMs by building partnerships and becoming a major player in the electrification market space. In its annual meeting held on Monday, the company also hints toward a double-digit growth in FY23.

  • HCL Technologies falls to a new 52-week low of Rs 926 per share ahead of declaring its results today. The stock is falling for three consecutive sessions.

  • Pharma stocks like Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Divi's Laboratories, Cipla, Biocon, Zydus Lifesciences, Alkem Laboratories, Aurobindo Pharma, among others are falling in trade. The broader sectoral index Nifty Pharma is also trading in the red.

  • HFCL rises after receiving purchase orders worth Rs 59.2 crore from a private telecom operator. The order involves the rolling out of the fibre-to-the-home network and long-distance fibre networks in many cities across the country.

  • Indian rupee falls to another record low of 79.57 against the US dollar in early trade as foreign investors pull out up to Rs 4,000 crore from Indian equities in July.

  • Trident falls in trade as its June production volumes fall during the month. Bath linen production is down 23.6% YoY to 3,333 metric tonnes (MT), while bed linen and yarn production are down 30.3% YoY to 1.95 million metres and 14.6% YoY to 9,587 MT, respectively. The company’s paper and chemical division's production volumes also falls, with paper volumes down 1.6% YoY to 12,500 MT and chemicals by 9.8% YoY to 7,673 MT.

  • Advent International partners with Pratik Pota and appoints him as the MD & CEO of its portfolio company ‘Eureka Forbes’. His term is for a period of five years, effective August 16, 2022. Before this, Pratik was the CEO at Jubilant Foodworks and also worked with brands like PepsiCo, Airtel, and Hindustan Unilever.

  • Sunteck Realty’s Q1FY23 bookings rise 89% YoY to Rs 333 crore. The company’s collections increase 66% YoY to Rs 285 crore with a collection efficiency of 86%. The company says that new project launches will drive bookings and cashflows in the coming quarters.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Zomato Ltd. (59.00, 5.17%), Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,294.75, 3.96%) and Indus Towers Ltd. (221.65, 3.91%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include NMDC Ltd. (103.20, -5.32%), REC Ltd. (124.15, -4.87%) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (234.00, -3.72%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

13 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included ITI Ltd. (114.30, 16.63%), Vakrangee Ltd. (29.80, 13.31%) and Balaji Amines Ltd. (3,106.15, 5.72%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Rites Ltd. (231.90, -3.01%), Symphony Ltd. (876.40, -0.66%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (3,929.70, -0.09%).

Indus Towers Ltd. (221.65, 3.91%) was trading at 6.1 times of weekly average. HFCL Ltd. (65.85, 5.28%) and Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,294.75, 3.96%) were trading with volumes 5.9 and 4.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

4 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs, while 2 stocks hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Blue Dart Express Ltd. (7,881.65, -2.63%), Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (204.05, 1.47%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (2,797.55, 2.98%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (927.80, -1.67%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,486.30, -0.40%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including ITI Ltd. (114.30, 16.63%) and Galaxy Surfactants Ltd. (3,004.25, 3.84%). 12 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Responsive Industries Ltd. (139.65, -2.89%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (620.20, -2.80%).

 
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The Baseline created a screener Companies beating their industry …
12 Jul 2022
Stocks beating their industry consensus view (Rating Scale: 1 is Strong Buy, 2 is Buy, 3 is Neutral, 4 is Sell, 5 is Strong Sell)
 
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The Baseline created a screener Test
11 Jul 2022
 
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Trendlyne Marketwatch
11 Jul 2022
Market closes flat, HDFC Securities initiates 'Buy' call on Aether Industries

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 recovered from the day’s low and closed flat on a volatile day of trade. European indices followed the global cues and traded lower than Friday’s levels. Most Asian indices closed lower, tracking the US indices futures. However, US stocks closed mixed on Friday. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 closed marginally higher while the Dow Jones fell 0.15%. Investors look ahead to several macroeconomic data releases this week including the June inflation print. Brent crude oil futures fell after rising 2.7% on Friday. Tight crude oil supply due to the geopolitical crisis, and fears of slow economic growth remain the key factors affecting the crude oil price.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green despite the benchmark index closing flat. Nifty Metal and Nifty Media closed higher than Friday’s levels. Nifty IT closed deep in the red, led by the heavyweight Tata Consultancy Services, which released its Q1FY23 results on Friday evening

Nifty 50closed at 16,216.00 (-4.6, 0.0%), BSE Sensexclosed at 54,395.23 (-86.6, -0.2%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,886.85 (58.6, 0.4%)

Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,904 stocks traded today, 1,198 showed gains, and 637 showed losses.

  • Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, KEI Industries, Ajanta Pharma, and SIS are trading with higher volumesas compared to Friday.

  • Steel Authority of India (SAIL) sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 4% with put to call ratio of 0.72.

  • Angel One and Federal Bank are rising ahead of their Q1FY23 results. Angel One is up 8.1% and Federal Bank rises 6.4% in the past week.

  • Stocks like Hinduja Global Solutions, Endurance Technologies, Ceat, Siemens, and Tube Investments of Indiaare in the overbought zone according to the technical indicators relative strength index or RSI and money flow index or MFI.

  • HDFC Securities initiates coverage on Aether Industries with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,045, indicating an upside of 25.7%. The brokerage is positive on the prospects of the company on the back of production capacity addition, strengthening of its research & development infrastructure, and a growing product portfolio. It estimates the company’s profit to grow at a CAGR of 45% over FY22-25.

  • Aurobindo Pharma falls after it abandons the proposed sale of Eugia Pharma Specialties, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The sale will not be going through as bid offers given by private equity funds did not meet the company’s expectations, according to reports. The company’s promoters value the company at around Rs 26,000-30,000 crore.

  • Power stocks like Adani Green Energy, Adani Transmission, Adani Power, JSW Energy, and ABB India, among others, are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index BSE Power is also trading in the green.

  • IIFL Wealth Management settles for Rs 3.1 crore in a case in which regulator Securities Exchange Board of India alleged it fraudulently earned undue benefits in 2019 from transactions for Alkem Laboratories. This pertains to transactions in 2019 through the normal/block trading window. The company didn't admit to wrongdoing while settling the case.

  • Eicher Motors and ITC hit their 52-week highs of Rs 2,998.8 and Rs 296.9, respectively. Both stocks are rising for four consecutive sessions.

  • Stocks like JSW Steel, Tata Steel , Jindal Steel & Power, Steel Authority of India(SAIL), Jindal Stainless, among others, are rising in trade after reports suggest the Centre may consider discontinuing export duties on some steel products.

  • Himadri Specialty Chemical touches a new 52-week high in trade today after the company announces a family settlement agreement between SSC (Shyam Sundar Choudhary, Anurag Choudhary and Amit Choudhary) and BLC (Bankey Lal Choudhary, Vijay Kumar Choudhary and Tushar Choudhary) family on Saturday. According to the agreement, the BLC family will cease to hold any management position or control in the company. The BLC family will be reclassified as public shareholders and will no longer be promoters of the company.

  • Adani Green Energy is trading with more than seven times its weekly average trading volume. PCBL, KRBL, Prince Pipes & Fittings, and Nippon Life India Asset Managementare trading at more than three times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • One97 Communications (Paytm) is rising as its loan disbursals in Q1FY23 rise 492% YoY to 85 lakh. The value of loans disbursed through its platform rises 779% YoY to Rs 5,554 crore. User engagement is up during the quarter with monthly transacting users rising 101% YoY to 7.5 crore and gross merchandise value is up 101% YoY to Rs 2.96 lakh crore.

  • NTPC plans to raise Rs 5,000 crore by selling a stake in its green energy arm--NTPC Green Energy or NGEL. First, NTPC will hive off its 15 renewable energy projects to NGEL for a book value of over Rs 10,000 crore. Then, it will also transfer its 100% stake in another arm NTPC Renewable Energy to NGEL for Rs 731.17 crore.

  • All IT stocks trade in the red. Stocks like Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro Infotech, MindTree, among others, are down by more than 2% after TCS' Q1FY23 earnings misses Forecaster estimates. The broader sectoral index Nifty IT is also falling in trade today.

  • Indian rupee hits a life low of 79.38 against the US dollar in early trade today, amid rising dollar index and economic worries and as investors continue to favour the dollar as ‘safe heaven’.

  • Avenue Supermarts’ Q1FY23 net profit rises more than 6X YoY to Rs 642.9 crore and revenue rises 93.7% YoY to Rs 10,038.1 crore. A robust recovery in sales volume and a low base last year aid the strong growth in profit and revenue. EBITDA margin rises by 5.7 percentage points YoY to 10% on an increase in overall sales.

  • Foreign brokerages downgrade their rating on TCS after it reports earnings below their estimates. Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to ‘Neutral’ and decreased the target price to Rs 3,275/share from Rs 4,350/share. JPMorgan gives an 'Underweight' call with a target price of Rs 2,800/share as the results and margin trajectory don't stand up to the burden of valuations. Nomura gives a ‘Reduce’ rating with a target price of Rs 2,910/share since the company’s Q1 results miss on all fronts. Citi gives a ‘Sell’ call with a target price of Rs 3,015/share.

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fines Federal Bank Rs 5.7 crore on Friday. The fine is because of the bank’s non-compliance with RBI norms on paying incentives to staff engaged in insurance broking or corporate agency services.

  • Bandhan Bank’s advances grow 20% YoY to Rs 96,469 crore in Q1FY23 and total deposits rise 20% YoY to Rs 93,057 crore. But both advances and deposits fall 3% QoQ. The bank’s collection efficiency pan India improves to 96% in June 2022 against 84% in June 2021.

  • Tata Consultancy Services’ Q1FY23 profit falls 4.5% QoQ to Rs 9,478 crore with its EBIT margin down 1.9 percentage points to 23% despite its revenue rising 4.3% QoQ to Rs 52,578 crore. Its order book stands at $8.2 billion, 26.5% down QoQ. Employee attrition rises to 19.7% in Q1FY23 compared to 17.4% in Q4FY22.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,207.35, 14.91%), JSW Energy Ltd. (227.20, 7.04%) and Adani Total Gas Ltd. (2,716.65, 6.92%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Bharti Airtel Ltd. (660.55, -4.98%), Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (3,113.80, -4.64%) and HCL Technologies Ltd. (943.55, -4.07%).

Volume Rockets

29 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Adani Green Energy Ltd. (2,207.35, 14.91%), V Mart Retail Ltd. (2,789.15, 10.73%) and PCBL Ltd. (114.95, 9.22%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Bharti Airtel Ltd. (660.55, -4.98%), Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (3,113.80, -4.64%) and KSB Ltd. (1,456.60, -2.05%).

KRBL Ltd. (236.50, 6.44%) was trading at 7.0 times of weekly average. Prince Pipes & Fittings Ltd. (588.45, -1.08%) and Shipping Corporation of India Ltd. (103.45, 5.40%) were trading with volumes 6.9 and 5.7 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

12 stocks took off, crossing 52-week highs, while 2 stocks were underachievers and hit their 52-week lows.

Stocks touching their year highs included - Coromandel International Ltd. (992.95, 1.89%), Eicher Motors Ltd. (3,046.85, 3.93%) and ITC Ltd. (295.00, 0.67%).

Stocks making new 52 weeks lows included - HCL Technologies Ltd. (943.55, -4.07%) and Gland Pharma Ltd. (2,496.20, -0.99%).

12 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including PCBL Ltd. (114.95, 9.22%) and Swan Energy Ltd. (189.60, 3.81%). 5 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Responsive Industries Ltd. (143.80, -2.48%) and Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. (1,256.15, -1.90%).

 
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The Baseline
11 Jul 2022
Five analyst picks for Q1FY23 earnings season
By Suhas Reddy

With the new earnings season underway, we looked at analysts' preview calls on various sectors and picked out the companies that they expect to do well in Q1FY23.

  1. Mahindra & Mahindra: IDBI Capital’s Mahesh Bendre and Pratik Desai believe the Indian auto sector is on the path of recovery, led by the passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) segments gaining traction. The analysts’ top picks in the sector are Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Maruti Suzuki India, Sona BLW Precision Forgings, and SJS Enterprises. They expect M&M’s stock to have the highest upside among the top picks. The analysts have a ‘Buy’ rating on M&M with a target price of Rs 1,643, indicating an upside of 41.5%.

Bendre and Desai highlight the company’s sales volume growth in all its segments in June, and expect the company to maintain this growth momentum throughout FY23. “The company’s PV Sales compared to pre-pandemic June-19 month are 43% higher,” the analysts said. They expect the company’s revenue to grow on the back of a robust order book and new product launches. 

  1. Larsen & Toubro: Prabhudas Lilladher’s analysts Amit Anwani and Nilesh Soni expect capital goods companies to report healthy revenue growth in Q1FY23. They see growth on the back of a low base last year, a pick-up in execution of projects, and the Centre’s infrastructure development push. However, they also expect margins to fall due to supply chain disruptions, elevated commodity prices and high freight costs. The analysts’ top picks from this industry are Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Bharat Electronics, and Siemens. Among these stocks L&T has the highest upside. The analysts have a ‘Buy’ rating on L&T with a target price of Rs 2,091, an upside of 25.5%.

“We expect the company’s consolidated revenue to grow 18% YoY in Q1FY23,” the analysts said. This growth is likely to be led by segments like IT, infrastructure, and hydrocarbons. The analysts are also upbeat on the company’s order flow as it announced many orders in the range of Rs 7,000-15,000 crore.  

  1. Infosys: ICICI Securities’ analysts Aniket Pande and Heenal Gada maintain their ‘Underweight’ rating on the Indian IT sector as they believe the peak revenue growth momentum period is over. They also expect large deal wins and hiring momentum to slow down in FY23. The analysts anticipate demand to moderate due to the economic slowdown in the US and Europe. The analysts picked Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys to perform better than the industry in FY23. Of the two stocks, they give Infosys a higher upside. The analysts upgraded their rating on Infosys to ‘Hold’ from ‘Reduce’ and increased their target price to Rs 1,464 from Rs 1,385.

This comes after Infosys’ stock price fell 25% over the past three months. Their outlook on the company improved as they believe the company is well equipped to deliver industry-leading growth even during an economic slowdown. The analysts expect revenue growth to be driven by cobalt cloud capabilities, execution of mega-deals and potential market share gain in large vendor deals. “We believe Q1FY23 will be the bottom for margins for the company and margins will gradually improve from thereon,” the analysts said. They estimate the company’s revenue to grow by 21.9% YoY in Q1FY23.

  1. Bharti Airtel: This telecom company is ICICI Direct’s analyst Bhupendra Tiwary’ top pick in the telecom space. “We see subscriber addition momentum remaining muted amid sim consolidation due to tariff hike,” Tiwary says in this telecom sector report.  He has a ‘Buy’ rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 860. This indicates an upside of 29.9%.

“The reported average revenue per user is likely to be up 3% QoQ at Rs 184 as some residual tariff hike pass-through will be seen,” Tiwary says. He also predicts that the company will add 2 million mobile subscribers, and the wireless revenue rising 3.8% QoQ at Rs 18,278 crore. The analyst adds, “India non-wireless revenues’ traction should remain robust, especially broadband and enterprise. He expects the company to report revenue growth of 3.9% QoQ to Rs 32,739 crore, and a profit of Rs 2,264 crore. 

  1. Oil And Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC): As the Centre imposed export duties on exports of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, analysts Harshad Katkar, Nilesh Ghuge, Akshay Mane, and Rutvi Chokshi have turned cautious on the oil and gas space. In their report on the sector,  the analysts from HDFC Securities maintain a ‘Buy’ on ONGC with a target price of Rs 184, indicating an upside of 46.7%. 

According to the analysts, stocks from the oil and gas sector declined as investors didn’t appreciate the new levies applied to the sector. They say that these taxes will adversely affect ONGC. For the company, “we bake in a lower net crude oil price realisation of $80 and $70 per barrel vs $93 and $79 per barrel earlier for FY23 and FY22, respectively,” say Katkar, Ghuge, Mane and Chokshi.They also stay optimistic that these levies will be reduced or withdrawn as inflation gets under control. This is corroborated by the Centre’s stance that it will remove this ‘windfall’ tax on these products if there is a $40 fall in crude oil prices.

Note: These recommendations are from various analysts and are not recommendations by Trendlyne.

 
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The Baseline
08 Jul 2022
Five Interesting Stocks Today

  1. Kotak Mahindra Bank: This bank stock outperformed its industry by 5.8% over the past 90 days, but underperformed the Nifty Bank index over the last two years, according to a report by Goldman Sachs (GS). Still, this doesn’t concern the brokerage as it upgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’. GS believes that the bank is well-equipped to utilize its excess capital to drive a higher return on equity (ROE.) If the bank can successfully utilize its retail assets it can touch the market capitalization of $100 billion by FY27, the brokerage says. HDFC Bank is the only other stock in this sector to achieve that milestone.

Apart from focussing on operating profits, asset quality and ROE, Kotak Mahindra is also working on technological upgrades for its systems. However, it will take 3-5 years for the company to completely reap the benefits of these upgrades. The Reserve Bank of India also fined the bank Rs 1.05 crore for a lapse in crediting the amount to a depositor within a stipulated time. The company had to issue a clarification regarding this in its BSE filing saying that the fine does not have ‘any adverse impact on the bank’. With its aim to improve operational process and better digital adoption by its customers, it will have to be careful to avoid such lapses in the future.

  1. Sobha: This realty stock soared nearly 7% on the bourses on Thursday after it announced its operational update for Q1FY23. It was trading with 3.5X of its weekly average trading volumes on the bourses. The stock is performing well over the past month and is up 23.5%, outperforming the Nifty 500 index by 25.5%. The Q1FY23 operational updates show that its sales bookings increased 67.6% YoY to Rs 1,145.5 crore. The company also achieved its highest ever sales volumes during the quarter. The management expects to sustain this growth going forward in FY23. The company also announced the launch of three new residential projects in Bengaluru, with over 2 million square feet of saleable area.

Currently, with rising inflation, there are worries about rising construction costs. Reports suggest that realty companies are facing a rise in construction costs by 12-15%. In its quarterly update filing, the company says it will hike prices across its projects to mitigate the impact of rising costs.

With the RBI trying to control inflation by hiking its benchmark lending rate, home loans are more expensive than in the last two years. Although this did not have a detrimental effect on housing demand in Q1FY23, the trickle-down effect will take some time to show up, if the central bank keeps raising rates. According to sector reports from Motilal Oswal, the effect of interest rate hikes on demand will reflect only when home loan rates go beyond 8.5%.

  1. Titan: This jewellery maker’s stock rose 5.7% on Thursday after it released its Q1FY23 business update. Titan’s sales jumped 205% YoY in Q1FY23 helped by a low base last year due to lockdowns. Despite the low base, its three-year sales CAGR remains healthy at 20.5%. This positive Q1FY23 business update comes after weak Q4FY22 results due to Omicron-induced lockdowns in January. The sharp rise in sales was led by the jewellery segment, which constitutes about 88% of the company’s total revenues. Sales from this vertical jumped three times YoY in Q1FY23 on the back of strong demand during Akshaya Tritiya festival in May, after two years of lockdowns during the same period.

The company posted growth across all verticals. While watches and wearables’ revenue rose 158% YoY eyecare sales increased by 176%. According to its FY22 annual report, Titan will continue to focus on network expansion across channels and segments to drive revenue growth.

With a good start to FY23, Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates show that the average of consensus estimates revenue growth for Titan in FY23 is 18.3%. Brokerages are optimistic about the company and as a result, it shows up in this screener which lists stocks with high analyst ratings that have an upside of at least 20% from their current price.

  1. Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL): This fast-moving consumer goods company’s stock rose by 5.7% on Wednesday after it announced its Q1FY23 quarterly update. This helped the company outperform the Nifty 50 index by 9.5% over the week and also outperform the personal products industry by 5.3% over the past month. The company expects to deliver double-digit sales growth in Q1FY23 on a high base in its India business. It derives 56.1% of its revenue from its India operations. The personal care segment led growth in the Indian business was driven by the personal wash and hair wash categories, the company said. GCPL’s revenue growth was also aided by price hikes, as the rural market recovery was weaker than the urban market, impacting volumes.

GCPL expects its Indonesian business’ sales volume to drop to high single-digits due to a high base last year in the hygiene segment. The Indonesian market contributed 13.8% of its revenue in Q4FY22. The other international regions like Africa, the USA, Latin America, and West Asia saw robust sales growth momentum and it expects double-digit sales growth in these regions. These markets contributed 32% to the company’s total revenue in Q4FY22.

The company expects a fall in its EBITDA margins and profit on a YoY basis in Q1FY23. It cites high input costs, elevated advertising expenses and a fall in sales volume in Indonesia. However, GCPL expects margins to improve going ahead as inflationary pressures are likely to reduce due to a correction in palm oil prices and crude oil. Prices of palm oil fell by 43% as of July 7 from its record highs in March. It also expects a recovery in demand and consumption in the coming quarters. 

  1. Star Health & Allied Insurance Co: This health insurer’s stock rose 11.4% in trade on Thursday after the General Insurance Council released a monthly update for the general insurance industry. The stock was also the top gainer among Nifty 500 companies on Thursday. Star Health’s Q1FY23 gross direct premium written rose 13% YoY to 2,466.2 crore. Its June gross direct premium written rose 10.3% YoY to Rs 949.7 crore. However, the rise in stock price came despite the company’s market share in Q1FY23 falling by 40 bps YoY to 4.5% in the general insurance market. The rise in its stock price was also aided by Credit Suisse initiating coverage of the company with an ‘Outperform’ rating, according to reports. The brokerage said its view on the company’s prospects is because of its large agency network (5.5 lakh agents), continued expansion, and an attractive risk-reward ratio. The company’s retail health insurance is a high-growth industry and Star Health is well-placed to capture this growth as it is the largest player in the segment, the brokerage said.

The investor presentation shows the company’s market share in the retail health insurance industry at currently more than 30% in terms of gross premium. The health insurer has nearly three times more agents than its next largest competitor. Looking ahead, the company expects its retail health segment to grow at a 20-25% CAGR over the next FY22-25, led by an increased focus on tier-2 and tier-3 cities, doubling of bancassurance channel to 8% in FY23, and increasing the share of digital issuance. But with the insurance regulator planning to allow life insurers to sell health insurance products, the positive outlook for this health insurer needs to be cautious.

Trendlyne's analysts identify stocks that are seeing interesting price movement, analyst calls, or new developments. These are not buy recommendations.

 
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Trendlyne Marketwatch
08 Jul 2022
Market closes higher, sugar stocks trade in the green

Trendlyne Analysis

Nifty 50 closed in the green with the volatility index, Nifty VIX, falling below 18.5%. Indian indices are up for three straight sessions. European indices traded mixed as investors look ahead to a speech by European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde.

Major Asian indices closed in the green, tracking the US indices, which closed sharply higher on Thursday. US stocks rose as investors assess the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to tackle high inflation without causing a recession. The tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100 rose 2.2% while the Dow Jones closed 1.1% higher. Brent crude oil futures fell marginally after rising 4.5% on Thursday. Tight crude oil supply due to the geopolitical crisis, and fears of slow economic growth remain the key factors affecting the crude oil price.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Energyand Nifty Pharmaclosed higher than Thursday’s levels. Nifty ITclosed in the green, tracking the NASDAQ 100, which rose 2.2% on Thursday.

Nifty 50closed at 16,220.60 (87.7, 0.5%), BSE Sensexclosed at 54,481.84 (303.4, 0.6%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,828.25 (62.7, 0.5%)

Market breadth is in the green. Of the 1,877 stocks traded today, 968 were gainers and 835 were losers.

  • Brightcom Group, Blue Star, Alkem Laboratories, and Sudarshan Chemical Industriesare trading with higher volumesas compared to Thursday.

  • SRF sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 6.6% with put to call ratio of 0.74.

  • Brokerage Jefferies downgrades IT stocks as it expects a US recession to impact their revenues. Its top pick in Infosys among Indian listed IT companies.

  • Stocks like Cummins India, Ceat, Endurance Technologies, and Siemens are in the overbought zone according to the technical indicator relative strength index or RSI.

  • Power stocks like Power Grid, Tata Power, NTPC among others are rising. The broader BSE Power index trades in the green.

  • Dr Reddy's Laboratories gets a form 483 from the US FDA with two observations. The observations pertain to a pre-approval inspection at the company's Srikakulam manufacturing unit.

  • Varun Beverages and Siemenstouch a life high of Rs 849.5 and Rs 2,692.7 respectively. Varun Beverages rises for two consecutive sessions while Siemens rises for three.

  • CLSA expects the risk-reward on Hindalco to be favourable as it believes that the stock’s underperformance is overplayed given the strong earnings of the company, according to reports. Hindalco’s foreign subsidiary Novelis’s performance remains stable even though the growth in the cans segment fell globally. The brokerage sees lower risk here, assuming there is an increase in Novelis’s profitability and volumes. It revises its target price to Rs 525 from Rs 580.

  • Capital goods stocks like Larsen & Toubro, Finolex Cables, Bharat Forge, Suzlon Energy, and ABB India, among others, are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index BSE Cap Goods is also trading in the green.

  • Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences is trading with more than six times its weekly average trading volume. Kalpataru Power Transmissions, Solara Active Pharma Sciences, India Cements and Vaibhav Global are trading at more than five times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • Craftsman Automation rises as the company expects business performance to improve driven by the recovery in offtake from the automobile sector over the medium term, according to the FY22 annual report.

  • Sugar stocks like Shree Renuka Sugars, EID Parry (India), Balrampur Chini Mills, Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries, among others, are rising by more than 2% in trade, as the Centre extends the deadline for the export of sugar by two weeks to July 20.

  • ICICI Direct maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Minda Industries with a target price of Rs 575, indicating an upside of 15%. The brokerage remains positive on the company’s prospects due to rising demand for its products, technology-driven products, and softening raw material prices. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 41.6% over FY22-24.

  • Equity Mutual Funds' net inflow falls by 16.4% MoM to Rs 15,497.7 crore in June 2022. Industry MFs see the biggest rise in outflows by 827.3% MoM to Rs 69,852.9 crore, led by debt schemes, closed-ended schemes (debt and equity), and hybrid schemes. Equity-oriented open-ended schemes saw an inflow of nearly Rs 15,500 crore.

  • Tata Power to invest Rs 75,000 crore in the next five years to expand its renewable energy generation capacity to 15 GW. In FY23, the company will invest Rs 10,000 crore in renewables, and a total capex of Rs 14,000 crore.

  • Tata Motors’ arm Jaguar Land Rover’s Q1FY23 retail sales fall 37% YoY to 78,825 units and remain flat on a QoQ basis. Sales fall due to the global chip shortage and Covid lockdowns in China despite the order book growing to 2 lakh units this quarter, the company said. Jaguar’s retail sales rise 4% QoQ and fall 48% YoY to 15,207 units. Land Rover sees its retail sales fall 1% QoQ and 33% YoY to 63,618 units, however, the order book indicates a strong demand for its new models this quarter.

  • Indian rupee depreciates 12 paise to 79.25 against the US dollar in early trade today, amid persistent foreign fund outflows.

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rises after British International Investment (BII) agrees to invest Rs 1,925 crore in M&M's four-wheeler passenger electric vehicle (EVCo) business. EVCo will be incorporated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of M&M where M&M plans a total capital infusion of Rs 8,000 crore over FY24-27. EVCo is valued at an estimate of Rs 70,070 crore.

  • Vedanta to acquire the debt-ridden company Athena Chattisgarh Power in an all-cash deal worth Rs 564.6 crore. The company went through the bankruptcy court under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and was under liquidation. With this deal, Vedanta will be able to fulfill its power requirement for its aluminium business. The acquisition is likely to be completed in FY23.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include SRF Ltd. (2,175.50, 4.95%), Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (1,687.45, 4.74%) and Tata Motors Limited (DVR) (220.40, 4.38%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include FSN E-Commerce Ventures Ltd. (1,393.85, -4.09%), Bandhan Bank Ltd. (271.90, -2.75%) and Ashok Leyland Ltd. (144.10, -2.64%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

18 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Uflex Ltd. (634.90, 7.46%), India Cements Ltd. (173.35, 4.93%) and Cyient Ltd. (769.35, 4.75%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (732.95, -1.51%), Godfrey Phillips India Ltd. (1,070.10, -1.25%) and Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd. (1,205.00, -1.10%).

Kalpataru Power Transmissions Ltd. (355.50, -0.59%) was trading at 9.0 times of weekly average. Vaibhav Global Ltd. (304.70, -1.01%) and Prism Johnson Ltd. (112.70, 3.87%) were trading with volumes 8.4 and 5.4 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

5 stocks took off, crossing 5- week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - ITC Ltd. (293.05, 0.38%), Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (1,133.60, 0.03%) and Siemens Ltd. (2,681.35, 0.67%).

13 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including IIFL Wealth Management Ltd. (1,567.45, 2.60%) and VIP Industries Ltd. (636.55, 2.48%). 8 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Responsive Industries Ltd. (147.45, -1.90%) and Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd. (630.95, -1.75%).

 
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The Baseline
07 Jul 2022
Chart of the week: Analysts are positive on banks, NBFCs and packaged foods industries

With the new earnings season about to start, investors are trying to figure out which stocks are likely to see a good result, despite rising inflation and a volatile global economy. We checked the Trendlyne Forecaster estimates to identify the companies and industries analysts are most bullish on.

Here we first take a look at industries that have a ‘Strong Buy’ and ‘Hold’ stance from analysts. We then check revenue growth expectations within these industries for some Nifty 50 companies. 

Banks, NBFCs and packaged foods industries are among those  that the street is bullish on. Analysts have a ‘strong buy’ stance for these three industries. 

Within banks, Bajaj Finance has the highest expected revenue growth of 35.6% in Q1FY23. But on a QoQ basis, the expectation is of a muted 0.6% revenue growth. HDFC Bank andState Bank of India’s Q1FY23 expected YoY revenue growth, according to Trendlyne’s Forecaster estimates are 11.6% and 8.4%, respectively. Tata Consumer, part of the packaged foods industry, is expected to post revenue growth of 13.7% YoY, and  7.8% on a QoQ basis in Q1FY23.

If we look at the industries which have consensus stance of ‘Hold’ from analysts, these are pharmaceuticals, iron & steel/intermediate products, cement & cement products, 2/3 wheelers and marine port & services. Trendlyne Forecaster’s consensus estimates show that the street expectsAdani Ports & SEZ Q1FY23 revenue to fall by 5.6% YoY, but on a QoQ basis, the street expects a near 12% rise in revenues. 

In Iron & Steel, JSW Steel is expected to post revenue growth of nearly 73% YoY in Q1FY23, indicating that it will probably continue its stellar run of revenue growth, despite recent export restrictions. On a QoQ basis, revenue growth is expected to be a more moderate 6.5%. 

In the auto industry, Eicher Motors’ Q1FY23 revenue is expected to grow by 69.2% YoY (on a low base) and 4.6% QoQ. And in pharmaceuticals, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories’ revenues are expected to grow 8.6% YoY and 12.8% YoY, respectively, and 11.7% QoQ and 2.1% QoQ, respectively. 

With many headwinds affecting industries across the board, let’s see if these companies meet or beat these consensus expectations in Q1FY23.

 
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Trendlyne Marketwatch
07 Jul 2022
Market closes higher, ICICI Securities maintains ‘Buy’ on Macrotech Developers

Trendlyne Analysis

Indian indices closed in the green with the volatility index, Nifty VIX, falling below 19.5%. European stocks traded higher than Wednesday’s levels amid positive global cues. Major Asian indices closed in the green, tracking the US indices, which closed higher on Wednesday. US stocks rose as investors assessed the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting. The minutes suggested the possibility of an “even more restrictive policy” to tame elevated inflation levels. Meanwhile, US job openings dip slightly in May but remained near record levels, indicating resilient labour demand. Brent crude oil futures rose after falling below $100 per barrel on Wednesday amid demand concerns due to recessionary fears.

Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 closed in the green, following the benchmark index. Nifty Realty and Nifty Pharma closed higher than Wednesday’s levels. Nifty IT closed in the green, tracking the tech-heavy index, NASDAQ 100, which rose 0.62% on Wednesday.

Nifty 50 closed at 16,132.90 (143.1, 0.9%), BSE Sensexclosed at 54,178.46 (427.5, 0.8%) while the broader Nifty 500closed at 13,765.60 (134.3, 1.0%)

Market breadth is surging up. Of the 1,879 stocks traded today, 1,316 were gainers and 516 were losers.

  • Procter & Gamble Health, Indoco Remedies, Blue Star, and TCNS Clothing Co.are trading with higher volumesas compared to Wednesday.

  • Titan Company sees a long build-up in its July 28 future series as its open interest rises 1.1% with put to call ratio of 0.9.

  • Infosys beats Wipro in YoY profit growth, FII and MF holding, return on equity and return on capital employed, but lags in QoQ profit and revenue growth, promoter holding and broker average target upside.

  • Stocks like V Mart Retail, Wockhardt, Vedanta, Laxmi Organic Industries, and IDBI Bank are in the oversold zone according to the technical indicator relative strength index or RSI.

  • Phoenix Mills rises to a new all-time highof Rs 1,268.5. The stock is rising for the last two consecutive sessions.

  • ICICI Securities maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on Macrotech Developers with a target price of Rs 1,348, indicating an upside of 23.2%. The brokerage remains positive on the company’s prospects due to its robust operating cash flows, lower interest costs on debt reduction, and new launches. It expects the company’s net profit to grow at a CAGR of 36.4% over FY22-24.

  • Tyre stocks like MRF, Apollo Tyres, Ceat, JK Tyre & Industries, TVS Srichakra, among others are up by more than 1.5% in trade amid fall in global crude oil prices.

  • Kalyan Jewellers rises after its reports a 105% YoY growth in revenue in Q1FY23. The revenues increased because of a shift in demand to the organized segment from the unorganized segment, the company said. Gross margins also improved YoY because of a better product mix, and an increase in the share of business from the non-south markets. Its online jewellery platform, Candere, sees an 80% YoY increase in revenue in Q1FY23.

  • Escorts Kubota rises as the company will hike prices across all tractor models from Monday. This is to offset the rise in input costs due to a spike in commodity prices.

  • General insurance stocks rise as the general insurance industry’s overall June gross direct premium underwritten rises 21% YoY, according to the General Insurance Council. In Q1FY23 the industry’s gross direct premium underwritten rises 23% YoY. ICICI Lombard General Insurance’s June gross direct premium underwritten rises 53.8% YoY to Rs 1,588.7 crore. Its Q1FY23 gross direct premium underwritten rises 43.9% YoY to Rs 5,370.3 crore and its market share rises by 143 bps YoY to 9.86%. Star Health’s June gross direct premium underwritten rises 10.3% YoY to Rs 949.7 crore. Its Q1FY23 gross direct premium underwritten rises 12.9% YoY to Rs 2,466.1 crore and its market share falls by 40 bps YoY to 4.53%.

  • Bajaj Finance is falling as brokerage Macquarie initiates coverage on the stock with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a target price of Rs 4,500, indicating a downside of 20.1%. The brokerage believes the company has a limited runway for growth due to its weak presence in the online consumer financing segment, according to reports. It believes the company will have a hard time penetrating the online space due to stiff competition from existing companies.

  • Auto stocks like Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors, Balkrishna Industries, Tube Investments of India, MRF, among others are rising in trade .The broader sectoral index BSE Auto hits a 52-week high today.

  • Jubilant Pharmovais trading with more than nine times its weekly average trading volume. Equitas Small Finance Bank, Kalyan Jewellers India, NBCC (India), and Natco Pharmaare trading at more than four times their weekly average trading volumes.

  • Bharat Heavy Electricals rises after the company announces that it has commissioned India's largest floating solar photovoltaic power plant at 100 mega watts at MTPC Ramagundam in Telangana. BHEL has now successfully installed three floating solar power plants in the last 10 months.

  • Lupin rises after receiving an establishment inspection report (EIR) from the US FDA for its manufacturing plant in Somerset, New Jersey. The US FDA classifies the inspection as voluntary action indicated (VAI). This means that the US FDA found some objectionable conditions in the inspection but will not be taking any regulatory action against the company. This report comes after the warning letter issued by US FDA in June 2022. The company is working towards maintaining high quality in its manufacturing and supply processes.

  • Equitas Small Finance Bank is rising as its advances in Q1FY23 are up 22% YoY (up 5% QoQ) to Rs 21,699 crore. The bank’s disbursements rise 2.6X YoY to Rs 3,238 crore but fall 1% QoQ. Its total deposits rise 19% YoY to Rs 20,386 crore and CASA (current account savings account) ratio stands at 51.7%.

  • Consumer durables stocks like Havells India, Voltas, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Dixon Technologies (India), Whirlpool of India, among others are rising in trade. The broader sectoral index BSE Consumer Durables is also trading in the green.

  • Raymond rises as its step-down wholly-owned subsidiary company Ten X Realty signs a joint development agreement for a premium residential project in Mumbai. The company estimates the project’s revenue potential at Rs 2,000 crore.

  • Sobha’s bookings rise 67.7% YoY to Rs 1,145.5 crore in Q1FY23. The company’s sales volumes increase 51.7% to 13.5 lakh square feet. Bengaluru sales volumes see the highest growth of 59.7% YoY to 10.6 lakh square feet because of three new project launches.

  • JSW Steel’s total crude steel production rises 16% YoY to 5.88 million tonnes but falls 2% QoQ due to the preponement of certain scheduled shutdowns during Q1FY23. The company’s Indian operations steel production rises 37% YoY to 5.62 million tonnes whereas its production including joint control rises by 16% YoY to 5.72 million tonnes.

  • Titan’s Q1FY23 sales surge 205% YoY, on a low base, helped by its jewellery business. The jewellery business sales grew 207% as the number of walk-ins and buyers grew. Sales of plain jewellery rose 3X YoY. Other businesses like fragrance, fashion accessories, and Indian dress wear also rise 271% because of an increase in sales from trade and e-commerce channels.

Riding High:

Largecap and midcap gainers today include Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (531.90, 11.74%), Canara Bank (208.55, 8.20%) and Vedanta Ltd. (227.70, 6.18%).

Downers:

Largecap and midcap losers today include Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (855.20, -2.81%), GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (1,504.45, -2.78%) and Adani Transmission Ltd. (2,466.10, -1.81%).

Crowd Puller Stocks

24 stocks in BSE 500 are trading on high volumes today.

Top high volume gainers on BSE included Star Health and Allied Insurance Company Ltd. (531.90, 11.74%), Sobha Ltd. (641.05, 9.83%) and Ceat Ltd. (1,122.10, 9.53%).

Top high volume losers on BSE were Natco Pharma Ltd. (633.40, -0.92%) and Cyient Ltd. (734.45, -0.24%).

Jubilant Pharmova Ltd. (367.65, 6.64%) was trading at 18.1 times of weekly average. NBCC (India) Ltd. (31.85, 9.45%) and Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd. (39.90, 1.40%) were trading with volumes 12.9 and 8.2 times weekly average respectively on BSE at the time of posting this article.

BSE 500: highs, lows and moving averages

7 stocks overperformed with 52-week highs,

Stocks touching their year highs included - Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (1,133.30, 2.60%), Phoenix Mills Ltd. (1,234.00, 4.40%) and Siemens Ltd. (2,663.60, 0.59%).

17 stocks climbed above their 200 day SMA including Ceat Ltd. (1,122.10, 9.53%) and VIP Industries Ltd. (621.15, 3.98%). 4 stocks slipped below their 200 SMA including Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (855.20, -2.81%) and Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. (364.85, -1.29%).